Visalia, California Real Estate Broker Predicts a 30% Increase in Home Prices.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=zk]You need our opinion as to the accuracy of that prediction?

I’ve got a used car that I predict will appreciate 30% in value by next year. Wanna buy it?
[/quote]

If that used car is a clunker currently worth less than $1000, it WILL increase in value by at least 30% over the next 6 months if the cash for clunkers passes.

[sdduuuude]

He’s right.
Everybody wants to live in Visalia.

[sdduuuude]

He’s right.
Everybody wants to live in Visalia.

[sdduuuude]

He’s right.
Everybody wants to live in Visalia.

[sdduuuude]

He’s right.
Everybody wants to live in Visalia.

[sdduuuude]

He’s right.
Everybody wants to live in Visalia.

[carlsbadworker]

I’m a follower of Bruce Norris because I think he is a really smart guy. Just look at the niche that he carved out for himself: being a hard money lender that carries no inventory and will make money if the deal that he sponsors makes money statistically.
But if anyone wants to be a good student, he needs to be critical of his teacher. Some of what he says are either marketing material or he might be full of himself. Like $30K for $1100 rent condo, I don’t doubt it is true, but he is withhelding information that is critical to analyze the return. At $30K, the rehab costs are going to have a meaningful impact on the price tag, how big is that? And for the $1100 rent, how much is condo fees etc? How much is the vacancy rate in those area? So that’s why I call it markeing material because he knows that he is not giving the full picture but he deliberately hides it to generate interests (for his training, and subsequently become a borrower of his hard money lending business).
One thing that I am not sure if he is just marketing or delusional is the prediction of market bottom 18 months from now. I don’ think anyone could know for sure when the market bottom really is given all the dynamic forces (especially from the government) in play. I think Warren Buffett is much more honest in this regard. When he wrote the article of “Buy America” last year, he clearly stated that he doesn’t have the faintest idea where the bottom will be and what the price would be. He just feels that from the valuation point of view, it is a good time to buy. Anyone thinks he can predict the future down to the exact time-frame or the exact price is delusional. The world doesn’t work that way. It’s all random statistical events, that are only explainable when you look backward.

[carlsbadworker]

I’m a follower of Bruce Norris because I think he is a really smart guy. Just look at the niche that he carved out for himself: being a hard money lender that carries no inventory and will make money if the deal that he sponsors makes money statistically.
But if anyone wants to be a good student, he needs to be critical of his teacher. Some of what he says are either marketing material or he might be full of himself. Like $30K for $1100 rent condo, I don’t doubt it is true, but he is withhelding information that is critical to analyze the return. At $30K, the rehab costs are going to have a meaningful impact on the price tag, how big is that? And for the $1100 rent, how much is condo fees etc? How much is the vacancy rate in those area? So that’s why I call it markeing material because he knows that he is not giving the full picture but he deliberately hides it to generate interests (for his training, and subsequently become a borrower of his hard money lending business).
One thing that I am not sure if he is just marketing or delusional is the prediction of market bottom 18 months from now. I don’ think anyone could know for sure when the market bottom really is given all the dynamic forces (especially from the government) in play. I think Warren Buffett is much more honest in this regard. When he wrote the article of “Buy America” last year, he clearly stated that he doesn’t have the faintest idea where the bottom will be and what the price would be. He just feels that from the valuation point of view, it is a good time to buy. Anyone thinks he can predict the future down to the exact time-frame or the exact price is delusional. The world doesn’t work that way. It’s all random statistical events, that are only explainable when you look backward.

[carlsbadworker]

I’m a follower of Bruce Norris because I think he is a really smart guy. Just look at the niche that he carved out for himself: being a hard money lender that carries no inventory and will make money if the deal that he sponsors makes money statistically.
But if anyone wants to be a good student, he needs to be critical of his teacher. Some of what he says are either marketing material or he might be full of himself. Like $30K for $1100 rent condo, I don’t doubt it is true, but he is withhelding information that is critical to analyze the return. At $30K, the rehab costs are going to have a meaningful impact on the price tag, how big is that? And for the $1100 rent, how much is condo fees etc? How much is the vacancy rate in those area? So that’s why I call it markeing material because he knows that he is not giving the full picture but he deliberately hides it to generate interests (for his training, and subsequently become a borrower of his hard money lending business).
One thing that I am not sure if he is just marketing or delusional is the prediction of market bottom 18 months from now. I don’ think anyone could know for sure when the market bottom really is given all the dynamic forces (especially from the government) in play. I think Warren Buffett is much more honest in this regard. When he wrote the article of “Buy America” last year, he clearly stated that he doesn’t have the faintest idea where the bottom will be and what the price would be. He just feels that from the valuation point of view, it is a good time to buy. Anyone thinks he can predict the future down to the exact time-frame or the exact price is delusional. The world doesn’t work that way. It’s all random statistical events, that are only explainable when you look backward.

[carlsbadworker]

I’m a follower of Bruce Norris because I think he is a really smart guy. Just look at the niche that he carved out for himself: being a hard money lender that carries no inventory and will make money if the deal that he sponsors makes money statistically.
But if anyone wants to be a good student, he needs to be critical of his teacher. Some of what he says are either marketing material or he might be full of himself. Like $30K for $1100 rent condo, I don’t doubt it is true, but he is withhelding information that is critical to analyze the return. At $30K, the rehab costs are going to have a meaningful impact on the price tag, how big is that? And for the $1100 rent, how much is condo fees etc? How much is the vacancy rate in those area? So that’s why I call it markeing material because he knows that he is not giving the full picture but he deliberately hides it to generate interests (for his training, and subsequently become a borrower of his hard money lending business).
One thing that I am not sure if he is just marketing or delusional is the prediction of market bottom 18 months from now. I don’ think anyone could know for sure when the market bottom really is given all the dynamic forces (especially from the government) in play. I think Warren Buffett is much more honest in this regard. When he wrote the article of “Buy America” last year, he clearly stated that he doesn’t have the faintest idea where the bottom will be and what the price would be. He just feels that from the valuation point of view, it is a good time to buy. Anyone thinks he can predict the future down to the exact time-frame or the exact price is delusional. The world doesn’t work that way. It’s all random statistical events, that are only explainable when you look backward.

[carlsbadworker]

I’m a follower of Bruce Norris because I think he is a really smart guy. Just look at the niche that he carved out for himself: being a hard money lender that carries no inventory and will make money if the deal that he sponsors makes money statistically.
But if anyone wants to be a good student, he needs to be critical of his teacher. Some of what he says are either marketing material or he might be full of himself. Like $30K for $1100 rent condo, I don’t doubt it is true, but he is withhelding information that is critical to analyze the return. At $30K, the rehab costs are going to have a meaningful impact on the price tag, how big is that? And for the $1100 rent, how much is condo fees etc? How much is the vacancy rate in those area? So that’s why I call it markeing material because he knows that he is not giving the full picture but he deliberately hides it to generate interests (for his training, and subsequently become a borrower of his hard money lending business).
One thing that I am not sure if he is just marketing or delusional is the prediction of market bottom 18 months from now. I don’ think anyone could know for sure when the market bottom really is given all the dynamic forces (especially from the government) in play. I think Warren Buffett is much more honest in this regard. When he wrote the article of “Buy America” last year, he clearly stated that he doesn’t have the faintest idea where the bottom will be and what the price would be. He just feels that from the valuation point of view, it is a good time to buy. Anyone thinks he can predict the future down to the exact time-frame or the exact price is delusional. The world doesn’t work that way. It’s all random statistical events, that are only explainable when you look backward.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[Author]

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