UCLA Anderson Forecast and Current Real Estate News

[Anonymous]

Thanks man for the data. How many of the 5000 pendings are in with the April escrows in your estimate? Mayube look at how many actually closed vs. still in escrow. Wondernig how many of those 3,194 will be actual clsoings. Maybe lots will drop out and we end up with 2,700 closings? Any thoughts on that?

[sdrealtor]

About 2800 of the current pendings went into escrow in April. About 290 have already closed. I would suspect that your 2700 making it to closings will be about right.

Time to go pay the bills…

[Anonymous]

April 3,194 escrows opened. 290 closed already. need 2410 to close to get to 2700 estimate. That leaves 500 to drop out of pending or go to May? Did I get that right? What accounts for the 1800 remaining pendings? Pendings gotta be same as following months closings. Could developers be keeping condos in escrow that were cancelled? 1) Appraisers use pendings in evaluating proeprties? 2) Tell new buyer Look I got one in pending for $915,000 so that’s a good price for you to pay too. 3) Show lender Hey I got 15% under contract so give me the loan. Somethigni fishy going on? Is it normal for Pendings being 1.5x closings? Can you check with your broker cuz the legal aspects are filled with intrigue…..Twilight ZONE………Shady stuff I think not lazy agent…………….

[hs]

Rockyroad, SDR answered some of your good questions.
Give him a bit more time. Powayseller is gone. This board is less interesting. As long as SDR continues to provide with facts and data, let’s be patient with him.

[Steve Beebo]

But have you noticed that powayseller and rockyroad have never posted at the same time? hmmmm…

[sdrealtor]

Thank you and I will do my best. There are 1,054 pendings that went in March and 322 from February which takes care of most of the others. These are likely longer escrows and contingent offers that havent closed yet or the lazy agents, out of area agents, FSBO’s with MLS etc that have already closed. I dont beleive there is any conspiracy going on among developers as most of their properties are never put into the MLS. Even if they were it would be so few as to not skew the #’s.

Gotta run…time for another appointment.

[Jim Brubaker]

I had to read all 6 pages of the thread, it caught my interest. Its length must be a record.

I think that the forum has come a long way, there are a lot of new faces talking now, lots of new input and questions. Makes it a lot more interesting.

I know that if I see my name on the Forum Marque more than three times, I cringe–I must be talking too much

keep up the good work SDRealtor

[sdrealtor]

Personally I think the thread is improving also. In the past all we had was a bunch of doomsday messages from a few people trying to convince themselves they did the right thing by selling and renting or renters hoping the market will come down to the level they are hoping for. Wanting or trying to bring the market down wont do anything and what ever is gonna happen will happen. All we can do is watch what is happening and learn from it. People are asking good questions and getting solid answers from a variety of first hand sources.

Thats good…

[Jim Brubaker]

Your keeping me honest, I keep thinking that the market should collapse–but in reality that isn’t going to happen in the next month. Its kind of like watching paint dry–its going to take a while.

Does it seem as if the bottom part of the market has disappeared and the only thing left is the high priced real estate? That would explain why prices are going up but sales are dropping?

[hs]

“there are a lot of new faces talking now”–Jim Brubaker

Now you really make me think: Who are they?–those new faces? Hmmmm… I wish I could see all of their true faces.

[SDbear]

Don’t make that conclusion yet. This was what the Oracle of Omaha spoke at BRKA’a annual meeting.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/05/news/newsmakers/buffett_050606/index.htm

I understand he has’nt been right in all his plays (like his short position on $$ last year). But I trust him most on the long term plays. Nice analogy to the cinderella tale too.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And now, # 2 on the greatest hits …

[Anonymous]

sdrealtor pointed out the obvious. powaysellers copious amount of posts suggests her life is one dimentional. It is what it is. Ignore it or accept it for what it is. Pinpointing the market’s trend is impossible by anyone. Im sure most, if not all (despite number crunching none of us can validate as being empirically correct) are using anecdotal information as a guide to our current/future behavior. Education level is irrevelant (forgive my MBA from the academic powerhouse SDSU) here. I have enjoyed this site because I am a benefactor of selling three homes (1 in LA, one in aliso viejo and one downtown San Diego). I now rent with the expectation I will enter the market when evidence points to an increase in home values over a few months. I didnt need a degree to surmise this is a safe strategy. Powayseller seems to pontificate which can easily turn anyone off. The common demoninator here is our agreement that home values will decline.

[Author]

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