March 20, 2006 at 3:34 PM #6421powaysellerParticipant
I ran into an old friend today, a realtor, who told me she saw my Sold status on the MLS. I told her I cashed out of the housing bubble, and laughed. She was very serious, and said, “I see prices softening, maybe 5% and then maybe staying flat for a few months, and then going up again. I see no indication at all for prices to go down”.
An hour later, I noticed another friend’s house with a For Sale sign, and drove by to see if it was indeed her house. The house was tented. I called the realtor, and inquired. He told me they had just completed the contingencies on that house, and it was sold, after 2 weeks on the market. OK, now that’s 2 Sold signs in Poway.
We discussed RE, and told him I was waiting to get back into the market because of the housing bubble. He laughed, loud! He said Poway can never see declining prices; prices will continue going up, and if I wait to buy, I could be priced out. He explained that prices are not down 5%, but that the rate of appreciation is lower since last summer. Thus, a house that was worth $650K last summer, is worth $680K now, not the $700K the seller is asking. A seller who starts out at $700K is overpricing and must take a reduction, and that’s why some people might think prices are going down.
I’m wondering if has heard a realtor admit that prices may go down, and if anyone has seen any SOLD signs.March 20, 2006 at 4:46 PM #23716barnaby33Participant
IMHO, if two realtors said it, it must be true. They wouldn’t lie, the radio said they adhere to a code of ethics.
Oh wait a minute, didn’t a declining real estate market, specifically in poway in 90-94 cost my parents their marriage and a house that at its peak was worth 600k but ended up going for under 300. Why yes, yes it did.
JoshMarch 20, 2006 at 5:32 PM #23717
I would love to know the names of these Realtors, as we are going to buy in Poway, after prices come down by 40-50%, or else we are going to leave my native state for “saner” pastures. I’d like to pick their brains to learn what I am missing here?!
I suspect many of us like-minded “bubbleheads” have similar ideas….either this thing gets back to the way it should be or else we are gone..I can buy an awfully nice house in a lot of really neat places for a heck of a lot less. Would I like to stay here? Sure…but at what cost?!
BTW..I am fairly certain the house you mentioned in Poway with all the price reductions yesterday (I think) is owned by a Realtor. You should find out what she thinks about the future.March 20, 2006 at 5:43 PM #23718powaysellerParticipant
The realtor who told me houses in Poway won’t go down has sold real estate for 35 years, and his kids attended the same schools that my kids attend. So this guy would remember the 90’s, and he’s either in complete denial or lying.March 20, 2006 at 5:55 PM #23719
I think it’s more denial…
I can remember recommending one of my clients trim her holdings of CSCO in favor of SYSCO right before the NASDAQ 5300+ fiasco tipped over. She balked. She didn’t want to believe that tech stocks wouldn’t go straight up forever.
Denial cost her dearly, that is for sure. Same thing will happen this time around. You should get this guy to autograph his opinion for you.March 20, 2006 at 5:57 PM #23720barnaby33Participant
No he is a dumb-ass plain and simple. I know he’s lying, and unlike Rich I don’t mind saying so. I watched the slow painful burn and its direct effect on my life over the coarse of several years.
JoshMarch 20, 2006 at 5:59 PM #23721
Check that Poway listing today…”Killer deal. Must sell!” Incredible!
There’s blood in the water (and it’s the FIRST day of Spring!!)
This should “kill” comps.March 22, 2006 at 1:23 PM #23736balasrParticipant
I don’t think he is lying, but I do think the phrase “won’t go down” has to be qualified. Even if someone had bought in the 1989 peak, he wouldn’t have lost “real” (accounting for inflation) money if he sold it in 2002 or 2003. But can everyone afford to wait? The answer is no. Any asset price *has* to go up and down, over the short term. Otherwise the price increase would be arbitraged away. That would then be a contradiction of the premise that the price will always increase. Yes you should be able to do the arbitrage for real-estate too, if price increases were a given.
I don’t see why residents in Poway are immune to divorce, lay-offs, etc., which would drive prices down in other areas during “bust” times.March 22, 2006 at 2:39 PM #23737nin_sisParticipant
Has anyone been watching the listings increase lately? All of SD including North County is up to 19,992 listings as of today. How are prices going to keep going up when there are too many houses and not enough buyers? I guess spring and summer will tell the story.
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