Trump presidency predictions

[zk]

[quote=FlyerInHi]ZK, please keep on updating us. Im counting on you for news. Please share what is most salient about Trump. Im following the news less now, so I might miss something.

I’m smelling the roses more these days.[/quote]

I’m trying to do the same, Brian. Obviously I’m not having all that much success. I keep telling myself, “there’s nothing you can do about it, and reading the news only makes you angry and disgusted. So don’t do it.” But I feel like I can’t just ignore such an important problem.

I saw a great cartoon the other day. A guy is walking down the street with a friend, and he says something like, “nowadays, I find myself having to choose between staying informed and staying sane.” That’s exactly how I feel.

[FlyerInHi]

ZK , i find this quote pretty indicative of Republicans’ disdain of knowledge and education. Too bad Rockefeller Republicans are dying off.
Aren’t we glad we live in California?

When President-elect Donald J. Trump offered Rick Perry the job of energy secretary five weeks ago, Mr. Perry gladly accepted, believing he was taking on a role as a global ambassador for the American oil and gas industry that he had long championed in his home state.

In the days after, Mr. Perry, the former Texas governor, discovered that he would be no such thing — that in fact, if confirmed by the Senate, he would become the steward of a vast national security complex he knew almost nothing about, caring for the most fearsome weapons on the planet, the United States’ nuclear arsenal.

[zk]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
In the days after, Mr. Perry, the former Texas governor, discovered that he would be no such thing — that in fact, if confirmed by the Senate, he would become the steward of a vast national security complex he knew almost nothing about, caring for the most fearsome weapons on the planet, the United States’ nuclear arsenal.[/quote]

The hits keep coming. Pathetic.

[FlyerInHi]

ZK, alternative facts is what led us to this. Most Americans do not read long news articles or even watch the Sunday news programs. They think in broad stokes, they believe conspiracies, etc… and it’s clear Trump is taking advantage of that.

I was at Lowes yesterday and the salesman I was talking to went on a rant about how only criminals are allowed to have guns. I ordered my AC register, then went on my way. I was thinking how sad an otherwise decent guy had become a deplorable simply for the lack of education and knowledge.

As far a Russia, the people there can see the world but they are still brainwashed by nationalism. Not to say that we are not. That’s why nationalism, America First, militarism, etc are so bad.

Diversity, cosmopolitanism, and a world aware, world connected citizenry are key to peace and prosperity. That’s what i saw a LSE professor say at a discussion panel, posted on YouTube.

[zk]

Oh. My. God.

Alternative facts? We’re in the Twilight Zone here.

Just lie, lie, lie, and lie some more. And when you’re caught in your lies, repeat your lies, and call them “alternative facts.” As if “alternative facts” were different from “lies.” As if “alternative facts” are ok.

What kind of idiots fall for this stuff? Oh, yeah, 63 million Americans.

I remember in the ’80s reading about TASS in the USSR. My recollections are that they were a state-run news agency that would basically print what they wanted regardless of the truth, and that that was all the news that Soviet citizens were able to access. I remember thinking how horrible it must be to not have access to the truth. Well, if the news media and the people don’t respond to this administration’s lying and “alternative facts” with the ferocity that this fight deserves, we might end up knowing first hand what that feels like, and we might end up watching it ruin our country.

Don’t let them do this to us, people. Our country is at stake.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/22/how-kellyanne-conway-ushered-in-the-era-of-alternative-facts/?utm_term=.c36c3214c680

[givdrvr]

not a political post just an economic observation…
If Trumps’s protectionist policies are enacted and create a nationalist knee jerk reaction worldwide then the risk of a Smoot-Hawley like deep recession is very high.
http://www.economist.com/node/12798595

[an]

[quote=givdrvr]not a political post just an economic observation…
If Trumps’s protectionist policies are enacted and create a nationalist knee jerk reaction worldwide then the risk of a Smoot-Hawley like deep recession is very high.
http://www.economist.com/node/12798595%5B/quote%5D
That would be awesome. I wouldn’t, in my wildest dream, imagine I would see another 2008 opportunity again in my life time, much less this quickly. Great recession or even great depression, yielding a shit load of cheap houses to buy. Which also guarantee Trump will be a 1 term president. The next president will be a Democrat and push for higher minimum wage. Sound pretty sweet to me.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=AN]
That would be awesome. I wouldn’t, in my wildest dream, imagine I would see another 2008 opportunity again in my life time, much less this quickly. Great recession or even great depression, yielding a shit load of cheap houses to buy. Which also guarantee Trump will be a 1 term president. The next president will be a Democrat and push for higher minimum wage. Sound pretty sweet to me.[/quote]

I was thinking the same but the president should be judged on how well he does for the aggregate. So let’s not confuse personal profits to what’s good for the whole of humanity. We should want win-win, not lose-win

I was raised well, so would not wish ill on others, just so I can profit. But I’m human and guilty of that sometimes. Now that the Trumpadors have who they want, I’ll be glad when Trump screws them. Then what friends will they have to fight for them? It’ll be fun to laugh in their faces and say “so how’s hopey changey workin’ for y’all?”

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I was thinking the same but the president should be judged on how well he does for the aggregate. So let’s not confuse personal profits to what’s good for the whole of humanity. We should want win-win, not lose-win

I was raised well, so would not wish ill on others, just so I can profit. But I’m human and guilty of that sometimes. Now that the Trumpadors have who they want, I’ll be glad when Trump screws them. Then what friends will they have to fight for them? It’ll be fun to laugh in their faces and say “so how’s hopey changey workin’ for y’all?”[/quote]
I was raised not to be casting stones in a glass house. Hopey changey didn’t help them under Obama when they voted for him. I don’t expect it to be any different under Trump. Also, it doesn’t matter how I judge any president. So why waste my energy judging. All I care about is how said president affects me personally. Which will correspond to how much I can donate to charity. Which affect a lot of people. Especially when it doesn’t take much to change someone’s life in 3rd world country.

[FlyerInHi]

AN, we’ve had almost a decade of continued growth. A global recession will set all humanity back, notwithstanding your charity work.

I really wonder if Trump learned anything at Wharton. His prescriptions so far smack discredited mercantilism and protectionism. Those ideas may sound good to the trumpadors because people tend to want protectionism for their individual selves; but in the whole, we would be all poorer.

I would love to see Trump’s college transcript. So many things he hasn’t released yet.

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]AN, we’ve had almost a decade of continued growth. A global recession will set all humanity back, notwithstanding your charity work. [/quote]I’ll call BS on that one. Global recession happened many times. We didn’t see humanity set back in 2008, 2001, etc. There are millions of people who are better off today than in 2000 world wide.

[quote=FlyerInHi]I really wonder if Trump learned anything at Wharton. His prescriptions so far smack discredited mercantilism and protectionism. Those ideas may sound good to the trumpadors because people tend to want protectionism for their individual selves; but in the whole, we would be all poorer.[/quote]You’re projecting. What’s important to you might not be important to Trump or his supporters. What make you think he cares if the world as a whole is poorer? IMHO, for protectionist, as long as American do better, that’s all that matters. That’s the whole point of protectionism, isn’t it?

[quote=FlyerInHi]I would love to see Trump’s college transcript. So many things he hasn’t released yet.[/quote]Who cares? would you seeing his transcript all of sudden boot him out of office or make you like him and trust him?

[FlyerInHi]

In the aggregate, humanity is better off today than in 2000 but 2008 was a huge setback.

Continual progression without taking a step back is always preferable, in the aggregate. Are you better off than 2008? I easily tripled my networth.

Trump college transcripts are important so history can evaluate him as a president. After all, Trump called for Obama’s transcript. So he should volunteer his.

Plus we want a president who understands policy and economics. Apparenty Trumpadors don’t care.

Protrctionism won’t make Americans better off. We won’t have access to foreign goods and that will make us poorer.

Also, the republican platform includes the protection of the free makets. I thought they didn’t like Keynesian policies. Trump, in rhetoric, is Keynes + protectionism. I do like his $1 trillion infrastructure spending, however.

[zk]

[quote=FlyerInHi] I do like his $1 trillion infrastructure spending, however.[/quote]

I do, too, depending on how it’s done.

If taxpayers pay private contractors, and those private contractors make $500 million in profits and pay minimum wage to all the workers, that won’t be so good.

If we’re able to pay a living wage to all the workers, that would put a lot more money into the economy (while fixing the infrastructure).

[FlyerInHi]

I can’t stand Trump, but one thing I’m rejoicing about is the destruction of Republican ideology. Trump has adopted old democratic protectionist ideas of the past, of all things.

Some of my business Republican friends were happy that Trump won but now they are at a loss as to what the party represents. The wacky ideas of working class men?

This is what Richard Haas, a leading republican thinker said. China has already moved ahead in trade agreements with Britain, Canada and countries in the Pacific to exclude us. I predict that Trump will accelerate China’s ascent to the largest economy in the world.

“TPP withdrawal will slow US [economic] growth, cost American jobs, & weaken US standing in Asia/world,” said Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a tweet early Monday. “China could well be principal beneficiary.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/23/president-trump-signs-order-to-withdraw-from-transpacific-partnership/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_tpp-wb-12pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4397bec88784

[zk]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I can’t stand Trump, but one thing I’m rejoicing about is the destruction of Republican ideology.[/quote]

Much of trump’s administration and most of congress are very much in line with republican idology.
Combine that with this…

———————–
Wayne Barrett, the legendary Village Voice muckraker who died on Thursday, at the age of seventy-one, had covered Trump for almost as long as anybody. (He published a book about him, in 1992.) “Donald just has no interest in information,” Barrett told Jennifer Gonnerman, shortly after the election. “He has no genuine interest in policy. He operates by impulse.”

(from this article):

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/donald-trump-the-impulsive-demagogue-in-the-white-house

—————————–

…and I see tons of republican-ideology driven policy in our future. All trump really seems to care about is how he looks and that people love him. Scratch that. Not love him. Think he’s great. He’ll do whatever it takes to feed his ego. He’ll talk about how great he is, and how terrible anybody who insults him or points out his flaws is. He’ll work toward anything that he thinks will end up making him look good. He’ll yell and bluster and cry and insult. But when it comes to the hard work of understanding the details of and making decisions regarding policies on issues that aren’t headline-grabbing, he’ll leave that to his administration and to congress. And that’s why I predict we’ll see lots of republican-ideology driven policy in our future.

Which is even more of a shame than it would be if most of the people who voted for trump actually wanted it. I think most trump voters just hated Hillary and hated Obama and hated politicians and hated the status quo (and hated those things to the degree they did mostly due to misinformation they’d received). Or they wanted somebody who spoke their language and considered them important. (I think trump speaks their language, and he pretends to consider them important).

I think the percentage of Americans who actually want republican conservatism to take over is very small and shrinking (read – dying of old age). But we’re stuck with it for the next 4 years because trump doesn’t want to bother with details. And he doesn’t care enough about any issue that doesn’t aggrandize him to fight congress over it.

If he gets a couple supreme court picks, and he picks super-right judges, the effect could last for decades.

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