Today’s Speculative Bets: Puts on NASDAQ and S&P500

[Coronita]

I did short oil, too early, at about $90/bbl. Within 45 days I was up 25% on that position, net, but that was thanks to the overall decline in the stock markets of about 20%. I should have sold that position THEN. FYI, it wasn't technically a short oil position but more a short position on the Oil & Gas Index, as I bought the ProShares short ETF, "DLG" which is 2X leveraged for inverse gains against the Oil & Gas Index.

Now with oil having touched $120/bbl, i'm getting my butt kicked by still holding that DLG position. Of course, I'm not stupid. I never put more than 10% of my portfolio into that risky bet.

HOwever, oil has fallen $10/bbl in the last few days. Let's hope that trend continues. There are A LOT of people much smarter than I who are experts on the oil sector and who are currently talking SPECULATIVE BUBBLE in oil, and are shorting oil.

 

I think he meant "DUG", not "DLG". DLG doesn't exist.

Second, there are smarter people "shorting oil" in the strictest sense.

But buying DUG shares is hardly shorting oil,the commodity.

With DUG, you're betting against the profitability of oil and energy companies that produce the end product. I think this was extensively mentioned here by others as well, some actually being pro commodity traders.

Consequently, I don't think you can say that DUG and crude oil prices will always move in lock-step. The later has a portion depending on other things, such as profit expectations on wall street.

In fact if there's any indication, with oil still be high, we see some energy companies like Exxon/Mobil getting blasted in the short run for coming short on profit expectations. Hence why I think DUG has risen 9% from $29-30 over the past couple of days, which I'm not complaining. But DUG is hardly a "short" crude oil position, no more so than is VGPMX (vanguard precious metal and mining) really tracking price of gold.

 

Now, if only Steve Balmer would hurry up and walk away from that deal, I'd be a happy person to watch MSFT go up from the $28 level and to see Yahoo crater to the low twenties again (no I'm not shorting the later nor do I have  a financial position in the company. It's just personal).

 

 

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—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[paranoid]

Stocktradr,

You seem to be the perfect contrarian indicator. People can make a lot of money by doing the opposite of what you do.

Please post more often.

[paranoid]

Stocktradr,

You seem to be the perfect contrarian indicator. People can make a lot of money by doing the opposite of what you do.

Please post more often.

[paranoid]

Stocktradr,

You seem to be the perfect contrarian indicator. People can make a lot of money by doing the opposite of what you do.

Please post more often.

[paranoid]

Stocktradr,

You seem to be the perfect contrarian indicator. People can make a lot of money by doing the opposite of what you do.

Please post more often.

[paranoid]

Stocktradr,

You seem to be the perfect contrarian indicator. People can make a lot of money by doing the opposite of what you do.

Please post more often.

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[stockstradr]

In early May you can see I advised buying put options on the NASDAQ and S&P500. (I did by the way load up on those options myself)

The S&P 500 has fallen 10% since I wrote those words. And we’re down 18% since I was giving that same advice earlier back in Oct ’07.

Yes, I still have my minor short postion on oil industry sector stocks; however, I’ve made so damn much on remaining 90% of my portfolio (short the overall market), that I could care less about oil…except that I plan to now make money on that position as well. I’m now going to double-down next week and cost-average my short oil positions. I think oil prices are due for a nice correction very soon. It all has to do with the timely onset of the recession beginning to reduce global oil demand.

Now, various forum trolls, yes please do reply your usual tired old flame responses ridiculing my market calls. Give me some more material I can make fun of six months from now when I show you my predictions again came true helping me make loads more money….OR, alternatively, you might climb on board place your bets and make some money betting on these falling markets (oil, and overall).

We are only maybe halfway through a long painful market decline. My mouse finger wil not get itchy to click sell-to-close existing short positions until we get below 1100 on the S&P 500….and oil hits about $70/bbl (just guessing on that last one)

It is sinful to make this much money on falling markets, but I’m happy to do it!

[cooperthedog]

Congratulations on your success!

As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad? Stating that you plan to make money on your oil position demonstrates an emotional need not to lose (one that we all possess) and that left unchecked will generally lead to substantial losses in the markets. The reluctance to take a loss on a investment/trade, holding on until breakeven, or far worse, averaging down is the Achilles heel of most investors. In the future, you should strongly consider cutting your losses at a fixed percentage or hedging your exposure.

Assuming oil is the bubble you think it is, then what makes you think you know when the top will occur? Bubbles experience parabolic moves that will not adhere to fundamentals and can continue far longer then anyone expects. As a reader of Piggington’s, you should be initimately aware of that.

[cooperthedog]

Congratulations on your success!

As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad? Stating that you plan to make money on your oil position demonstrates an emotional need not to lose (one that we all possess) and that left unchecked will generally lead to substantial losses in the markets. The reluctance to take a loss on a investment/trade, holding on until breakeven, or far worse, averaging down is the Achilles heel of most investors. In the future, you should strongly consider cutting your losses at a fixed percentage or hedging your exposure.

Assuming oil is the bubble you think it is, then what makes you think you know when the top will occur? Bubbles experience parabolic moves that will not adhere to fundamentals and can continue far longer then anyone expects. As a reader of Piggington’s, you should be initimately aware of that.

[cooperthedog]

Congratulations on your success!

As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad? Stating that you plan to make money on your oil position demonstrates an emotional need not to lose (one that we all possess) and that left unchecked will generally lead to substantial losses in the markets. The reluctance to take a loss on a investment/trade, holding on until breakeven, or far worse, averaging down is the Achilles heel of most investors. In the future, you should strongly consider cutting your losses at a fixed percentage or hedging your exposure.

Assuming oil is the bubble you think it is, then what makes you think you know when the top will occur? Bubbles experience parabolic moves that will not adhere to fundamentals and can continue far longer then anyone expects. As a reader of Piggington’s, you should be initimately aware of that.

[cooperthedog]

Congratulations on your success!

As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad? Stating that you plan to make money on your oil position demonstrates an emotional need not to lose (one that we all possess) and that left unchecked will generally lead to substantial losses in the markets. The reluctance to take a loss on a investment/trade, holding on until breakeven, or far worse, averaging down is the Achilles heel of most investors. In the future, you should strongly consider cutting your losses at a fixed percentage or hedging your exposure.

Assuming oil is the bubble you think it is, then what makes you think you know when the top will occur? Bubbles experience parabolic moves that will not adhere to fundamentals and can continue far longer then anyone expects. As a reader of Piggington’s, you should be initimately aware of that.

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