Just wondering if anybody has any thoughts about this Bloomberg article about Tobin’s Q Ratio and the S&P. Napier is calling a 2014 bottom with SP at 400, pushed out by monetary policy, quantitative easing from the Fed/Treasury.
For my part, I tend to think things are going to keep contracting and deflating — equities, property, labor market, etc. Lots of sideways movement with broader trend down through 2011-12. If I’m right about the timeline, the magnitude of the decline is just — SCARY. We’ve already priced in 50%, which is pretty incredible.
Hard to believe there’s another 50% along the decline. Then again, if you’d asked me a year ago, property for example, I never would have guessed the bottom would have fallen out as fast as it did. I don’t get the sense the downturn is over. Feels like it’s picking up in some ways.
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