This Recession, It’s Just Beginning

[HeadedHome]

[quote=bsrsharma]USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? With all the problems, the situation seems better than what happened in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and even 1930s here.[/quote]

As an aside, today will mark the close of the worst June in the stock market since 1930.

[Eugene]

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Ever heard about “carpooling”? Or even “buying a Toyota Yaris, then carpooling”? Dangers of expensive gas for American exurbs are greatly exaggerated.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

Presumably, then, Chinese people will have to eat those made-in-China products themselves, because they won’t sell them here. So your picture will necessarily involve unemployment in industrial China that’s on the order of U.S. Great Depression.

Sorry, that’s too much doom-and-gloom for me.

BTW, United States are third in the world by exports, and our exports are tech heavy. If the dollar falls to 1/10 of its value, it’ll be really good for American high tech industry, and exports in general. It will also be really good for mining and agriculture – we will be able to drown the world in corn and wheat, and all the minerals that are abundant in the Rockies but just not profitable to extract at current wages and exchange rates. United States have MORE arable land than China, and one fifth of population. United States have huge oil shale reserves – maybe 1/2 of all world’s known oil shales, enough to satisfy the entire world’s demand for oil for 30+ years if they were fully developed. They were just not profitable with $50 oil, but things are changing.

[Eugene]

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Ever heard about “carpooling”? Or even “buying a Toyota Yaris, then carpooling”? Dangers of expensive gas for American exurbs are greatly exaggerated.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

Presumably, then, Chinese people will have to eat those made-in-China products themselves, because they won’t sell them here. So your picture will necessarily involve unemployment in industrial China that’s on the order of U.S. Great Depression.

Sorry, that’s too much doom-and-gloom for me.

BTW, United States are third in the world by exports, and our exports are tech heavy. If the dollar falls to 1/10 of its value, it’ll be really good for American high tech industry, and exports in general. It will also be really good for mining and agriculture – we will be able to drown the world in corn and wheat, and all the minerals that are abundant in the Rockies but just not profitable to extract at current wages and exchange rates. United States have MORE arable land than China, and one fifth of population. United States have huge oil shale reserves – maybe 1/2 of all world’s known oil shales, enough to satisfy the entire world’s demand for oil for 30+ years if they were fully developed. They were just not profitable with $50 oil, but things are changing.

[Eugene]

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Ever heard about “carpooling”? Or even “buying a Toyota Yaris, then carpooling”? Dangers of expensive gas for American exurbs are greatly exaggerated.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

Presumably, then, Chinese people will have to eat those made-in-China products themselves, because they won’t sell them here. So your picture will necessarily involve unemployment in industrial China that’s on the order of U.S. Great Depression.

Sorry, that’s too much doom-and-gloom for me.

BTW, United States are third in the world by exports, and our exports are tech heavy. If the dollar falls to 1/10 of its value, it’ll be really good for American high tech industry, and exports in general. It will also be really good for mining and agriculture – we will be able to drown the world in corn and wheat, and all the minerals that are abundant in the Rockies but just not profitable to extract at current wages and exchange rates. United States have MORE arable land than China, and one fifth of population. United States have huge oil shale reserves – maybe 1/2 of all world’s known oil shales, enough to satisfy the entire world’s demand for oil for 30+ years if they were fully developed. They were just not profitable with $50 oil, but things are changing.

[Eugene]

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Ever heard about “carpooling”? Or even “buying a Toyota Yaris, then carpooling”? Dangers of expensive gas for American exurbs are greatly exaggerated.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

Presumably, then, Chinese people will have to eat those made-in-China products themselves, because they won’t sell them here. So your picture will necessarily involve unemployment in industrial China that’s on the order of U.S. Great Depression.

Sorry, that’s too much doom-and-gloom for me.

BTW, United States are third in the world by exports, and our exports are tech heavy. If the dollar falls to 1/10 of its value, it’ll be really good for American high tech industry, and exports in general. It will also be really good for mining and agriculture – we will be able to drown the world in corn and wheat, and all the minerals that are abundant in the Rockies but just not profitable to extract at current wages and exchange rates. United States have MORE arable land than China, and one fifth of population. United States have huge oil shale reserves – maybe 1/2 of all world’s known oil shales, enough to satisfy the entire world’s demand for oil for 30+ years if they were fully developed. They were just not profitable with $50 oil, but things are changing.

[Eugene]

Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.

Ever heard about “carpooling”? Or even “buying a Toyota Yaris, then carpooling”? Dangers of expensive gas for American exurbs are greatly exaggerated.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.

So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.

Presumably, then, Chinese people will have to eat those made-in-China products themselves, because they won’t sell them here. So your picture will necessarily involve unemployment in industrial China that’s on the order of U.S. Great Depression.

Sorry, that’s too much doom-and-gloom for me.

BTW, United States are third in the world by exports, and our exports are tech heavy. If the dollar falls to 1/10 of its value, it’ll be really good for American high tech industry, and exports in general. It will also be really good for mining and agriculture – we will be able to drown the world in corn and wheat, and all the minerals that are abundant in the Rockies but just not profitable to extract at current wages and exchange rates. United States have MORE arable land than China, and one fifth of population. United States have huge oil shale reserves – maybe 1/2 of all world’s known oil shales, enough to satisfy the entire world’s demand for oil for 30+ years if they were fully developed. They were just not profitable with $50 oil, but things are changing.

[peterb]

As negative as I can be, I have to agree with esmith on this. The USA has a huge educational system and many natural resources available yet to tap. The one thing we’ve abdicated heavily over the last two decades is manufacturing, but we still have plenty of it here and can create more without too much difficulty. Yes, we’ll have to rethink our consumerism lifestyle and probably scale-down a lot from what we’re used to spending, but from a global perspective, we’re in pretty good shape. We can easily feed ourselves and create more energy from non-petroleum sources.

Although 3rd world countries are rising rapidly, they face huge challenges due to their lack of infrastructure and massive populations. And dont forget that having the USA as an open market where they could sell their production has been a key factor in their rapid rise.

[peterb]

As negative as I can be, I have to agree with esmith on this. The USA has a huge educational system and many natural resources available yet to tap. The one thing we’ve abdicated heavily over the last two decades is manufacturing, but we still have plenty of it here and can create more without too much difficulty. Yes, we’ll have to rethink our consumerism lifestyle and probably scale-down a lot from what we’re used to spending, but from a global perspective, we’re in pretty good shape. We can easily feed ourselves and create more energy from non-petroleum sources.

Although 3rd world countries are rising rapidly, they face huge challenges due to their lack of infrastructure and massive populations. And dont forget that having the USA as an open market where they could sell their production has been a key factor in their rapid rise.

[peterb]

As negative as I can be, I have to agree with esmith on this. The USA has a huge educational system and many natural resources available yet to tap. The one thing we’ve abdicated heavily over the last two decades is manufacturing, but we still have plenty of it here and can create more without too much difficulty. Yes, we’ll have to rethink our consumerism lifestyle and probably scale-down a lot from what we’re used to spending, but from a global perspective, we’re in pretty good shape. We can easily feed ourselves and create more energy from non-petroleum sources.

Although 3rd world countries are rising rapidly, they face huge challenges due to their lack of infrastructure and massive populations. And dont forget that having the USA as an open market where they could sell their production has been a key factor in their rapid rise.

[peterb]

As negative as I can be, I have to agree with esmith on this. The USA has a huge educational system and many natural resources available yet to tap. The one thing we’ve abdicated heavily over the last two decades is manufacturing, but we still have plenty of it here and can create more without too much difficulty. Yes, we’ll have to rethink our consumerism lifestyle and probably scale-down a lot from what we’re used to spending, but from a global perspective, we’re in pretty good shape. We can easily feed ourselves and create more energy from non-petroleum sources.

Although 3rd world countries are rising rapidly, they face huge challenges due to their lack of infrastructure and massive populations. And dont forget that having the USA as an open market where they could sell their production has been a key factor in their rapid rise.

[peterb]

As negative as I can be, I have to agree with esmith on this. The USA has a huge educational system and many natural resources available yet to tap. The one thing we’ve abdicated heavily over the last two decades is manufacturing, but we still have plenty of it here and can create more without too much difficulty. Yes, we’ll have to rethink our consumerism lifestyle and probably scale-down a lot from what we’re used to spending, but from a global perspective, we’re in pretty good shape. We can easily feed ourselves and create more energy from non-petroleum sources.

Although 3rd world countries are rising rapidly, they face huge challenges due to their lack of infrastructure and massive populations. And dont forget that having the USA as an open market where they could sell their production has been a key factor in their rapid rise.

[Tuba]

I would like to hear from some of the wise men on the board, who can remember the recession of the 70’s. I was still in HS during the early 90’s recession, and I’ve heard some older friends still say that the 70’s recession was far worse than what is going on currently. It seems like a healthy recession going on personally, and all the “cash is king” people will be the winners when they buy at or near the bottom of real estate, stocks, etc… What do our wise elders have to say?

[Tuba]

I would like to hear from some of the wise men on the board, who can remember the recession of the 70’s. I was still in HS during the early 90’s recession, and I’ve heard some older friends still say that the 70’s recession was far worse than what is going on currently. It seems like a healthy recession going on personally, and all the “cash is king” people will be the winners when they buy at or near the bottom of real estate, stocks, etc… What do our wise elders have to say?

[Tuba]

I would like to hear from some of the wise men on the board, who can remember the recession of the 70’s. I was still in HS during the early 90’s recession, and I’ve heard some older friends still say that the 70’s recession was far worse than what is going on currently. It seems like a healthy recession going on personally, and all the “cash is king” people will be the winners when they buy at or near the bottom of real estate, stocks, etc… What do our wise elders have to say?

[Tuba]

I would like to hear from some of the wise men on the board, who can remember the recession of the 70’s. I was still in HS during the early 90’s recession, and I’ve heard some older friends still say that the 70’s recession was far worse than what is going on currently. It seems like a healthy recession going on personally, and all the “cash is king” people will be the winners when they buy at or near the bottom of real estate, stocks, etc… What do our wise elders have to say?

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