This market has some real fundamental issues!

[socrattt]

Lately I have been pondering when this market will really begin to turn around and then some ideas started to click. Right now our economy is an obvious short term deflationary period, which would be due to the fact that every other country out there is experiencing the same if not more pain than we are economically due to the global investments in the US Dollar. As this short term deflationary period begins to change and we move into a longer inflationary period we would most likely see the interest rates climb to well over 10% to curb inflation which seems almost inevitable.

Now I am far from economically inclined, but it seems extremely apparent that if the housing market continues to see a rise in foreclosures and the supply mounts we would have a much bigger problem on the foreseeable horizon. The percentage of Americans in debt and foreclosing on homes and cars would lead me to believe that credit will be almost impossible for a good portion of Americans to attain. If this happens and we get into a period of high interest rates many of those who could qualify won’t necessarily be willing to buy. IMHO this could essentially put the lid on buyers for years to come.

Maybe I am completely off and I actually hope so, but I just don’t see how we could even see any sort of rebound for at least 4-5 years.

[peterb]

The last couple of gigantic credit bubble bursts saw the senior currency rise in strength for at least one to two years after the contraction starts. The US$ seems to be right on track for this to play out for another year or so. This credit destruction looks to be at least $50T in size, which far out wieghs the $3T plus so far being pumped in. Deflation and a strong US$ will probably last a lot longer than most people think. As unemployment rises and credit continues to be constricted around the world, there will be more demand destruction. All these factors and historic evidence point towards this scenario lasting for a minimum of one to two more years. Perhaps a lot longer.

[peterb]

The last couple of gigantic credit bubble bursts saw the senior currency rise in strength for at least one to two years after the contraction starts. The US$ seems to be right on track for this to play out for another year or so. This credit destruction looks to be at least $50T in size, which far out wieghs the $3T plus so far being pumped in. Deflation and a strong US$ will probably last a lot longer than most people think. As unemployment rises and credit continues to be constricted around the world, there will be more demand destruction. All these factors and historic evidence point towards this scenario lasting for a minimum of one to two more years. Perhaps a lot longer.

[peterb]

The last couple of gigantic credit bubble bursts saw the senior currency rise in strength for at least one to two years after the contraction starts. The US$ seems to be right on track for this to play out for another year or so. This credit destruction looks to be at least $50T in size, which far out wieghs the $3T plus so far being pumped in. Deflation and a strong US$ will probably last a lot longer than most people think. As unemployment rises and credit continues to be constricted around the world, there will be more demand destruction. All these factors and historic evidence point towards this scenario lasting for a minimum of one to two more years. Perhaps a lot longer.

[peterb]

The last couple of gigantic credit bubble bursts saw the senior currency rise in strength for at least one to two years after the contraction starts. The US$ seems to be right on track for this to play out for another year or so. This credit destruction looks to be at least $50T in size, which far out wieghs the $3T plus so far being pumped in. Deflation and a strong US$ will probably last a lot longer than most people think. As unemployment rises and credit continues to be constricted around the world, there will be more demand destruction. All these factors and historic evidence point towards this scenario lasting for a minimum of one to two more years. Perhaps a lot longer.

[peterb]

The last couple of gigantic credit bubble bursts saw the senior currency rise in strength for at least one to two years after the contraction starts. The US$ seems to be right on track for this to play out for another year or so. This credit destruction looks to be at least $50T in size, which far out wieghs the $3T plus so far being pumped in. Deflation and a strong US$ will probably last a lot longer than most people think. As unemployment rises and credit continues to be constricted around the world, there will be more demand destruction. All these factors and historic evidence point towards this scenario lasting for a minimum of one to two more years. Perhaps a lot longer.

[temeculaguy]

There are so many factors in play, most predictions are guesses. I’ll dance with the one that brung me. Roubini and Schiff convinced me to wait out a home purchase, I owe them a few hundred grand as of now for their advice. What I won’t bite on is all the doomsdayers without the reality check gene. study the crap out of your micro market and avoid national numbers and anectodotal stories. target 2001 prices and that’s about it, they were fundamentally sound then, houses will not be free they will not fall another 50%, they will total 50% from peak but ignore the noise, get realistic and be prepared to pay actual money for a house, they won’t cost ten dollars, they will get close to rent nuetral but not much better. This is part of a cycle, it’s not the end of the world, prepare to take advantage of the cycle.

I concur with peter a little , 1 to 2 more years (at least one, 2009 is a throw away year) but don’t discount the psychological impact of a charismatic president, politics aside, just figure out how to prepare for it. Both clinton and reagan were charismatic leaders, obama is as well, weather you like him or not. Both clinton and reagan had a couple bumpy years to start after inheriting a bad economy and both had it turn around on their watch, same will happen here, 2 years and the ship turns around, prepare for it, hedge your bets.

Or you can get a foil hat, think milk will cost $100 a gallon and houses will cost $100, nobody will have a job, blah blah blah. Don’t drink bubble koolaid and dont drink doomsday koolaid, find the middle drink diet coke, it kills you slow and still tastes good.

[temeculaguy]

There are so many factors in play, most predictions are guesses. I’ll dance with the one that brung me. Roubini and Schiff convinced me to wait out a home purchase, I owe them a few hundred grand as of now for their advice. What I won’t bite on is all the doomsdayers without the reality check gene. study the crap out of your micro market and avoid national numbers and anectodotal stories. target 2001 prices and that’s about it, they were fundamentally sound then, houses will not be free they will not fall another 50%, they will total 50% from peak but ignore the noise, get realistic and be prepared to pay actual money for a house, they won’t cost ten dollars, they will get close to rent nuetral but not much better. This is part of a cycle, it’s not the end of the world, prepare to take advantage of the cycle.

I concur with peter a little , 1 to 2 more years (at least one, 2009 is a throw away year) but don’t discount the psychological impact of a charismatic president, politics aside, just figure out how to prepare for it. Both clinton and reagan were charismatic leaders, obama is as well, weather you like him or not. Both clinton and reagan had a couple bumpy years to start after inheriting a bad economy and both had it turn around on their watch, same will happen here, 2 years and the ship turns around, prepare for it, hedge your bets.

Or you can get a foil hat, think milk will cost $100 a gallon and houses will cost $100, nobody will have a job, blah blah blah. Don’t drink bubble koolaid and dont drink doomsday koolaid, find the middle drink diet coke, it kills you slow and still tastes good.

[temeculaguy]

There are so many factors in play, most predictions are guesses. I’ll dance with the one that brung me. Roubini and Schiff convinced me to wait out a home purchase, I owe them a few hundred grand as of now for their advice. What I won’t bite on is all the doomsdayers without the reality check gene. study the crap out of your micro market and avoid national numbers and anectodotal stories. target 2001 prices and that’s about it, they were fundamentally sound then, houses will not be free they will not fall another 50%, they will total 50% from peak but ignore the noise, get realistic and be prepared to pay actual money for a house, they won’t cost ten dollars, they will get close to rent nuetral but not much better. This is part of a cycle, it’s not the end of the world, prepare to take advantage of the cycle.

I concur with peter a little , 1 to 2 more years (at least one, 2009 is a throw away year) but don’t discount the psychological impact of a charismatic president, politics aside, just figure out how to prepare for it. Both clinton and reagan were charismatic leaders, obama is as well, weather you like him or not. Both clinton and reagan had a couple bumpy years to start after inheriting a bad economy and both had it turn around on their watch, same will happen here, 2 years and the ship turns around, prepare for it, hedge your bets.

Or you can get a foil hat, think milk will cost $100 a gallon and houses will cost $100, nobody will have a job, blah blah blah. Don’t drink bubble koolaid and dont drink doomsday koolaid, find the middle drink diet coke, it kills you slow and still tastes good.

[temeculaguy]

There are so many factors in play, most predictions are guesses. I’ll dance with the one that brung me. Roubini and Schiff convinced me to wait out a home purchase, I owe them a few hundred grand as of now for their advice. What I won’t bite on is all the doomsdayers without the reality check gene. study the crap out of your micro market and avoid national numbers and anectodotal stories. target 2001 prices and that’s about it, they were fundamentally sound then, houses will not be free they will not fall another 50%, they will total 50% from peak but ignore the noise, get realistic and be prepared to pay actual money for a house, they won’t cost ten dollars, they will get close to rent nuetral but not much better. This is part of a cycle, it’s not the end of the world, prepare to take advantage of the cycle.

I concur with peter a little , 1 to 2 more years (at least one, 2009 is a throw away year) but don’t discount the psychological impact of a charismatic president, politics aside, just figure out how to prepare for it. Both clinton and reagan were charismatic leaders, obama is as well, weather you like him or not. Both clinton and reagan had a couple bumpy years to start after inheriting a bad economy and both had it turn around on their watch, same will happen here, 2 years and the ship turns around, prepare for it, hedge your bets.

Or you can get a foil hat, think milk will cost $100 a gallon and houses will cost $100, nobody will have a job, blah blah blah. Don’t drink bubble koolaid and dont drink doomsday koolaid, find the middle drink diet coke, it kills you slow and still tastes good.

[temeculaguy]

There are so many factors in play, most predictions are guesses. I’ll dance with the one that brung me. Roubini and Schiff convinced me to wait out a home purchase, I owe them a few hundred grand as of now for their advice. What I won’t bite on is all the doomsdayers without the reality check gene. study the crap out of your micro market and avoid national numbers and anectodotal stories. target 2001 prices and that’s about it, they were fundamentally sound then, houses will not be free they will not fall another 50%, they will total 50% from peak but ignore the noise, get realistic and be prepared to pay actual money for a house, they won’t cost ten dollars, they will get close to rent nuetral but not much better. This is part of a cycle, it’s not the end of the world, prepare to take advantage of the cycle.

I concur with peter a little , 1 to 2 more years (at least one, 2009 is a throw away year) but don’t discount the psychological impact of a charismatic president, politics aside, just figure out how to prepare for it. Both clinton and reagan were charismatic leaders, obama is as well, weather you like him or not. Both clinton and reagan had a couple bumpy years to start after inheriting a bad economy and both had it turn around on their watch, same will happen here, 2 years and the ship turns around, prepare for it, hedge your bets.

Or you can get a foil hat, think milk will cost $100 a gallon and houses will cost $100, nobody will have a job, blah blah blah. Don’t drink bubble koolaid and dont drink doomsday koolaid, find the middle drink diet coke, it kills you slow and still tastes good.

[mixxalot]

I tend to agree with temeculaguy

Doomsday predictions are no fun and bubble fools are proven wrong. The middle way is best. I hope we do get the economy moving and that home prices drop more in San Diego.

[mixxalot]

I tend to agree with temeculaguy

Doomsday predictions are no fun and bubble fools are proven wrong. The middle way is best. I hope we do get the economy moving and that home prices drop more in San Diego.

[mixxalot]

I tend to agree with temeculaguy

Doomsday predictions are no fun and bubble fools are proven wrong. The middle way is best. I hope we do get the economy moving and that home prices drop more in San Diego.

[mixxalot]

I tend to agree with temeculaguy

Doomsday predictions are no fun and bubble fools are proven wrong. The middle way is best. I hope we do get the economy moving and that home prices drop more in San Diego.

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