The past doesn’t repeat but it Rhymes: Lessons from Japans Financial Crisis

[patb]

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/press/koen07/ko0905a.pdf

“In fact, we can see a remarkable resemblance in the development of the financial crises and subsequent policy responses between the current US situation and Japan’s lost decade. Chart 1 shows a rough mapping of events in the time line between the current US crisis and Japan’s lost decade”

[Rt.66]

I’ve always thought that Japan is viewed as the successful model for dealing with a complete implosion of a country’s banking system. A lost decade or two is preferrable to a severe depression?

What’s the choice? Let the banks fail and the priviledged bond holder lose money or the sheeple lose a decade or two? Bond holders and bankers lose…OR…sheeple lose, hmmmmm, what will they chose?

I’m surprised by people that think we can’t have housing falling for 15 years here in the US. Despite all the arguements that say we aren’t going to end up like Japan, our Gov. keeps inching closer and following the same play book.

I’ve read stories of people in Japan who have kept up on mortgage payments for 15 years hoping to recover losses and they are still upside down. To me, that is a bankers wet dream at this point in the game.

[Rt.66]

I’ve always thought that Japan is viewed as the successful model for dealing with a complete implosion of a country’s banking system. A lost decade or two is preferrable to a severe depression?

What’s the choice? Let the banks fail and the priviledged bond holder lose money or the sheeple lose a decade or two? Bond holders and bankers lose…OR…sheeple lose, hmmmmm, what will they chose?

I’m surprised by people that think we can’t have housing falling for 15 years here in the US. Despite all the arguements that say we aren’t going to end up like Japan, our Gov. keeps inching closer and following the same play book.

I’ve read stories of people in Japan who have kept up on mortgage payments for 15 years hoping to recover losses and they are still upside down. To me, that is a bankers wet dream at this point in the game.

[Rt.66]

I’ve always thought that Japan is viewed as the successful model for dealing with a complete implosion of a country’s banking system. A lost decade or two is preferrable to a severe depression?

What’s the choice? Let the banks fail and the priviledged bond holder lose money or the sheeple lose a decade or two? Bond holders and bankers lose…OR…sheeple lose, hmmmmm, what will they chose?

I’m surprised by people that think we can’t have housing falling for 15 years here in the US. Despite all the arguements that say we aren’t going to end up like Japan, our Gov. keeps inching closer and following the same play book.

I’ve read stories of people in Japan who have kept up on mortgage payments for 15 years hoping to recover losses and they are still upside down. To me, that is a bankers wet dream at this point in the game.

[Rt.66]

I’ve always thought that Japan is viewed as the successful model for dealing with a complete implosion of a country’s banking system. A lost decade or two is preferrable to a severe depression?

What’s the choice? Let the banks fail and the priviledged bond holder lose money or the sheeple lose a decade or two? Bond holders and bankers lose…OR…sheeple lose, hmmmmm, what will they chose?

I’m surprised by people that think we can’t have housing falling for 15 years here in the US. Despite all the arguements that say we aren’t going to end up like Japan, our Gov. keeps inching closer and following the same play book.

I’ve read stories of people in Japan who have kept up on mortgage payments for 15 years hoping to recover losses and they are still upside down. To me, that is a bankers wet dream at this point in the game.

[Rt.66]

I’ve always thought that Japan is viewed as the successful model for dealing with a complete implosion of a country’s banking system. A lost decade or two is preferrable to a severe depression?

What’s the choice? Let the banks fail and the priviledged bond holder lose money or the sheeple lose a decade or two? Bond holders and bankers lose…OR…sheeple lose, hmmmmm, what will they chose?

I’m surprised by people that think we can’t have housing falling for 15 years here in the US. Despite all the arguements that say we aren’t going to end up like Japan, our Gov. keeps inching closer and following the same play book.

I’ve read stories of people in Japan who have kept up on mortgage payments for 15 years hoping to recover losses and they are still upside down. To me, that is a bankers wet dream at this point in the game.

[peterb]

I think we’ll be lucky to have the Japanese scenario unfold here in the US. Dont forget, Japan was still selling a lot of their products to the world as their credit markets were zombified. We dont have that luxury. We have wage arbitration keeping a solid lid on income/job growth in the US while at the same time credit is being constricted.

Put those two factors together when considering the future of home prices in the US. Income stagnation or loss with the constriction of credit. This will probably keep downward pressure on home prices for quite a while.

[peterb]

I think we’ll be lucky to have the Japanese scenario unfold here in the US. Dont forget, Japan was still selling a lot of their products to the world as their credit markets were zombified. We dont have that luxury. We have wage arbitration keeping a solid lid on income/job growth in the US while at the same time credit is being constricted.

Put those two factors together when considering the future of home prices in the US. Income stagnation or loss with the constriction of credit. This will probably keep downward pressure on home prices for quite a while.

[peterb]

I think we’ll be lucky to have the Japanese scenario unfold here in the US. Dont forget, Japan was still selling a lot of their products to the world as their credit markets were zombified. We dont have that luxury. We have wage arbitration keeping a solid lid on income/job growth in the US while at the same time credit is being constricted.

Put those two factors together when considering the future of home prices in the US. Income stagnation or loss with the constriction of credit. This will probably keep downward pressure on home prices for quite a while.

[peterb]

I think we’ll be lucky to have the Japanese scenario unfold here in the US. Dont forget, Japan was still selling a lot of their products to the world as their credit markets were zombified. We dont have that luxury. We have wage arbitration keeping a solid lid on income/job growth in the US while at the same time credit is being constricted.

Put those two factors together when considering the future of home prices in the US. Income stagnation or loss with the constriction of credit. This will probably keep downward pressure on home prices for quite a while.

[peterb]

I think we’ll be lucky to have the Japanese scenario unfold here in the US. Dont forget, Japan was still selling a lot of their products to the world as their credit markets were zombified. We dont have that luxury. We have wage arbitration keeping a solid lid on income/job growth in the US while at the same time credit is being constricted.

Put those two factors together when considering the future of home prices in the US. Income stagnation or loss with the constriction of credit. This will probably keep downward pressure on home prices for quite a while.

[patientrenter]

I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening?

Inflation.

[patientrenter]

I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening?

Inflation.

[patientrenter]

I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening?

Inflation.

[patientrenter]

I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening?

Inflation.

[Author]

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