The next tipping point

[socrattt]

Not sure what impact it will really have but my guess says that gold challenging $1K could have an impact on the future of the markets. It may not be much of a telling sign, but it does show us that many investors are making the move back to portions of the commodity market for safety purposes.

I believe the dollar is on the brink of a major downward move, but we will have to wait and see. As far as commercial real estate, my guess is the banks won’t come knocking as fast as we think. Banks have learned a hard lesson from the residential market. If they play the cat mouse game playing with supply and demand they could spare huge losses, at least that is the thought.

As much as I think we will have some changes this fall my prediction is that 2010 will be an ugly year financially for America. If I were a betting man, which I am, I would cash out of equities put a little money in gold stocks and relax. Not much else can be predicted with the manipulation game in place.

[Hobie]

I think we are still on a downward trend: unemployment, advertising spending down, discretionary spending down, company projects slowed or on hold, fewer cars on freeway, Costco sales strong in food and not big screens, etc.

So I am looking for the opposite of the down tipping point, but for signs of a recovery. Not to hijack your thread, however it may help in identifying your exit point.

Our nation needs to make things to grow. A return to a solid manufacturing base. With this will result in higher exports, stronger dollar, etc. Cheaper energy is a huge factor here as well.

So when I see these things happening and a backbone in our foreign policy ( read energy independence and exit from being the worlds police to ungrateful countries ) will produce a positive change in our economy and attitude.

Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?

Departing from the other thread of cashing out, I am inclined to play in the TIPPS or inflation adjusted treasury bonds guaranteed by the Treasury.

I haven’t lost all hope in America 😉

Thoughts?

[Hobie]

I think we are still on a downward trend: unemployment, advertising spending down, discretionary spending down, company projects slowed or on hold, fewer cars on freeway, Costco sales strong in food and not big screens, etc.

So I am looking for the opposite of the down tipping point, but for signs of a recovery. Not to hijack your thread, however it may help in identifying your exit point.

Our nation needs to make things to grow. A return to a solid manufacturing base. With this will result in higher exports, stronger dollar, etc. Cheaper energy is a huge factor here as well.

So when I see these things happening and a backbone in our foreign policy ( read energy independence and exit from being the worlds police to ungrateful countries ) will produce a positive change in our economy and attitude.

Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?

Departing from the other thread of cashing out, I am inclined to play in the TIPPS or inflation adjusted treasury bonds guaranteed by the Treasury.

I haven’t lost all hope in America 😉

Thoughts?

[Hobie]

I think we are still on a downward trend: unemployment, advertising spending down, discretionary spending down, company projects slowed or on hold, fewer cars on freeway, Costco sales strong in food and not big screens, etc.

So I am looking for the opposite of the down tipping point, but for signs of a recovery. Not to hijack your thread, however it may help in identifying your exit point.

Our nation needs to make things to grow. A return to a solid manufacturing base. With this will result in higher exports, stronger dollar, etc. Cheaper energy is a huge factor here as well.

So when I see these things happening and a backbone in our foreign policy ( read energy independence and exit from being the worlds police to ungrateful countries ) will produce a positive change in our economy and attitude.

Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?

Departing from the other thread of cashing out, I am inclined to play in the TIPPS or inflation adjusted treasury bonds guaranteed by the Treasury.

I haven’t lost all hope in America 😉

Thoughts?

[Hobie]

I think we are still on a downward trend: unemployment, advertising spending down, discretionary spending down, company projects slowed or on hold, fewer cars on freeway, Costco sales strong in food and not big screens, etc.

So I am looking for the opposite of the down tipping point, but for signs of a recovery. Not to hijack your thread, however it may help in identifying your exit point.

Our nation needs to make things to grow. A return to a solid manufacturing base. With this will result in higher exports, stronger dollar, etc. Cheaper energy is a huge factor here as well.

So when I see these things happening and a backbone in our foreign policy ( read energy independence and exit from being the worlds police to ungrateful countries ) will produce a positive change in our economy and attitude.

Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?

Departing from the other thread of cashing out, I am inclined to play in the TIPPS or inflation adjusted treasury bonds guaranteed by the Treasury.

I haven’t lost all hope in America 😉

Thoughts?

[Hobie]

I think we are still on a downward trend: unemployment, advertising spending down, discretionary spending down, company projects slowed or on hold, fewer cars on freeway, Costco sales strong in food and not big screens, etc.

So I am looking for the opposite of the down tipping point, but for signs of a recovery. Not to hijack your thread, however it may help in identifying your exit point.

Our nation needs to make things to grow. A return to a solid manufacturing base. With this will result in higher exports, stronger dollar, etc. Cheaper energy is a huge factor here as well.

So when I see these things happening and a backbone in our foreign policy ( read energy independence and exit from being the worlds police to ungrateful countries ) will produce a positive change in our economy and attitude.

Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?

Departing from the other thread of cashing out, I am inclined to play in the TIPPS or inflation adjusted treasury bonds guaranteed by the Treasury.

I haven’t lost all hope in America 😉

Thoughts?

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Taking a Cue from what Hobie was saying,

But with a little different twist,

Now this is all just my thoughts,

I say that once the economy does start to recover, it will only take about a quarter or so for it to take off like a rocket (maybe a slow one anyway),

We (the American people) have been putting off buying so much of everything ,

Car’s, computer’s, TV’s even homes (heck I know a lot of native born USA people stacking generations of families in homes) , folks that is just not natural for Americans.

There is a lot of demand for just about everything building out there people.

Again these are just my opinions.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Taking a Cue from what Hobie was saying,

But with a little different twist,

Now this is all just my thoughts,

I say that once the economy does start to recover, it will only take about a quarter or so for it to take off like a rocket (maybe a slow one anyway),

We (the American people) have been putting off buying so much of everything ,

Car’s, computer’s, TV’s even homes (heck I know a lot of native born USA people stacking generations of families in homes) , folks that is just not natural for Americans.

There is a lot of demand for just about everything building out there people.

Again these are just my opinions.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Taking a Cue from what Hobie was saying,

But with a little different twist,

Now this is all just my thoughts,

I say that once the economy does start to recover, it will only take about a quarter or so for it to take off like a rocket (maybe a slow one anyway),

We (the American people) have been putting off buying so much of everything ,

Car’s, computer’s, TV’s even homes (heck I know a lot of native born USA people stacking generations of families in homes) , folks that is just not natural for Americans.

There is a lot of demand for just about everything building out there people.

Again these are just my opinions.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Taking a Cue from what Hobie was saying,

But with a little different twist,

Now this is all just my thoughts,

I say that once the economy does start to recover, it will only take about a quarter or so for it to take off like a rocket (maybe a slow one anyway),

We (the American people) have been putting off buying so much of everything ,

Car’s, computer’s, TV’s even homes (heck I know a lot of native born USA people stacking generations of families in homes) , folks that is just not natural for Americans.

There is a lot of demand for just about everything building out there people.

Again these are just my opinions.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Taking a Cue from what Hobie was saying,

But with a little different twist,

Now this is all just my thoughts,

I say that once the economy does start to recover, it will only take about a quarter or so for it to take off like a rocket (maybe a slow one anyway),

We (the American people) have been putting off buying so much of everything ,

Car’s, computer’s, TV’s even homes (heck I know a lot of native born USA people stacking generations of families in homes) , folks that is just not natural for Americans.

There is a lot of demand for just about everything building out there people.

Again these are just my opinions.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Hobie]
Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?
[/quote]

Well. That’s exactly the reason that I am still almost fully invested right now. I think cash itself is an investment vehicle and I don’t want to hold too much in that basket either.
I think it really depends what will be the dominant risk that will make equity market less attractive at that time. If it is deflationary, then cash is not a bad choice. If it is inflationary, then maybe some commodity bets. As for government bond, I actually started a small position to short long-term treasury last week. 4% for 20-30 years bond? I do think those investors are having too much hope in America.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Hobie]
Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?
[/quote]

Well. That’s exactly the reason that I am still almost fully invested right now. I think cash itself is an investment vehicle and I don’t want to hold too much in that basket either.
I think it really depends what will be the dominant risk that will make equity market less attractive at that time. If it is deflationary, then cash is not a bad choice. If it is inflationary, then maybe some commodity bets. As for government bond, I actually started a small position to short long-term treasury last week. 4% for 20-30 years bond? I do think those investors are having too much hope in America.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Hobie]
Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?
[/quote]

Well. That’s exactly the reason that I am still almost fully invested right now. I think cash itself is an investment vehicle and I don’t want to hold too much in that basket either.
I think it really depends what will be the dominant risk that will make equity market less attractive at that time. If it is deflationary, then cash is not a bad choice. If it is inflationary, then maybe some commodity bets. As for government bond, I actually started a small position to short long-term treasury last week. 4% for 20-30 years bond? I do think those investors are having too much hope in America.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Hobie]
Question: What are you going to do with your money once you exit?
[/quote]

Well. That’s exactly the reason that I am still almost fully invested right now. I think cash itself is an investment vehicle and I don’t want to hold too much in that basket either.
I think it really depends what will be the dominant risk that will make equity market less attractive at that time. If it is deflationary, then cash is not a bad choice. If it is inflationary, then maybe some commodity bets. As for government bond, I actually started a small position to short long-term treasury last week. 4% for 20-30 years bond? I do think those investors are having too much hope in America.

[Author]

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