••The next great bubble

[clearfund]

Average investor….poor typer….

We’ve recently shorted Treasuries with long term IRA funds. we agree that timing is tough/impossible.

However, with a long term horizon my view is that rates will be higher rather than lower over the long haul. That’s just one way to play it instead of just waiting for it and blogging about it…

[clearfund]

Average investor….poor typer….

We’ve recently shorted Treasuries with long term IRA funds. we agree that timing is tough/impossible.

However, with a long term horizon my view is that rates will be higher rather than lower over the long haul. That’s just one way to play it instead of just waiting for it and blogging about it…

[clearfund]

Average investor….poor typer….

We’ve recently shorted Treasuries with long term IRA funds. we agree that timing is tough/impossible.

However, with a long term horizon my view is that rates will be higher rather than lower over the long haul. That’s just one way to play it instead of just waiting for it and blogging about it…

[clearfund]

Average investor….poor typer….

We’ve recently shorted Treasuries with long term IRA funds. we agree that timing is tough/impossible.

However, with a long term horizon my view is that rates will be higher rather than lower over the long haul. That’s just one way to play it instead of just waiting for it and blogging about it…

[clearfund]

Average investor….poor typer….

We’ve recently shorted Treasuries with long term IRA funds. we agree that timing is tough/impossible.

However, with a long term horizon my view is that rates will be higher rather than lower over the long haul. That’s just one way to play it instead of just waiting for it and blogging about it…

[Anonymous]

Hope you don’t make that mistake very often on the trading floor…

And it’s not easy to make money on the way down in a bubble. Bubbles don’t deflate, they pop. It happens fast and unpredictably.

Even when we can determine that we are “in” a bubble, it is not easy to profit from it. In late 1998, every rational measure of stock market valuation was off the charts. We were clearly in a bubble. But if one shorted then, they would have been burned.

It’s hard to time the pop because bubbles grow far more than anyone expects them to. They defy reason, and no model based upon sound theory can be used to predict them. That is the very definition of a bubble.

Some have timed it right — perhaps because they are brilliant, perhaps because they are lucky (it’s impossible to prove one way or the other.) But it is only “easy” to time the pop in hindsight.

[Anonymous]

Hope you don’t make that mistake very often on the trading floor…

And it’s not easy to make money on the way down in a bubble. Bubbles don’t deflate, they pop. It happens fast and unpredictably.

Even when we can determine that we are “in” a bubble, it is not easy to profit from it. In late 1998, every rational measure of stock market valuation was off the charts. We were clearly in a bubble. But if one shorted then, they would have been burned.

It’s hard to time the pop because bubbles grow far more than anyone expects them to. They defy reason, and no model based upon sound theory can be used to predict them. That is the very definition of a bubble.

Some have timed it right — perhaps because they are brilliant, perhaps because they are lucky (it’s impossible to prove one way or the other.) But it is only “easy” to time the pop in hindsight.

[Anonymous]

Hope you don’t make that mistake very often on the trading floor…

And it’s not easy to make money on the way down in a bubble. Bubbles don’t deflate, they pop. It happens fast and unpredictably.

Even when we can determine that we are “in” a bubble, it is not easy to profit from it. In late 1998, every rational measure of stock market valuation was off the charts. We were clearly in a bubble. But if one shorted then, they would have been burned.

It’s hard to time the pop because bubbles grow far more than anyone expects them to. They defy reason, and no model based upon sound theory can be used to predict them. That is the very definition of a bubble.

Some have timed it right — perhaps because they are brilliant, perhaps because they are lucky (it’s impossible to prove one way or the other.) But it is only “easy” to time the pop in hindsight.

[Anonymous]

Hope you don’t make that mistake very often on the trading floor…

And it’s not easy to make money on the way down in a bubble. Bubbles don’t deflate, they pop. It happens fast and unpredictably.

Even when we can determine that we are “in” a bubble, it is not easy to profit from it. In late 1998, every rational measure of stock market valuation was off the charts. We were clearly in a bubble. But if one shorted then, they would have been burned.

It’s hard to time the pop because bubbles grow far more than anyone expects them to. They defy reason, and no model based upon sound theory can be used to predict them. That is the very definition of a bubble.

Some have timed it right — perhaps because they are brilliant, perhaps because they are lucky (it’s impossible to prove one way or the other.) But it is only “easy” to time the pop in hindsight.

[Anonymous]

Hope you don’t make that mistake very often on the trading floor…

And it’s not easy to make money on the way down in a bubble. Bubbles don’t deflate, they pop. It happens fast and unpredictably.

Even when we can determine that we are “in” a bubble, it is not easy to profit from it. In late 1998, every rational measure of stock market valuation was off the charts. We were clearly in a bubble. But if one shorted then, they would have been burned.

It’s hard to time the pop because bubbles grow far more than anyone expects them to. They defy reason, and no model based upon sound theory can be used to predict them. That is the very definition of a bubble.

Some have timed it right — perhaps because they are brilliant, perhaps because they are lucky (it’s impossible to prove one way or the other.) But it is only “easy” to time the pop in hindsight.

[moneymaker]

I think the best way to profit from a bubble is to not be part of the collateral damage when it pops. That way you are not really relying on timing, just good old common sense.
Of course with big bubbles like we just had in real estate everybody is affected in some way or another.
Just look at Detroit or Michigan they were not really frothy, ok they were frothy but not bubbilicious, but right now they are selling houses below inflation indexed prices.

[moneymaker]

I think the best way to profit from a bubble is to not be part of the collateral damage when it pops. That way you are not really relying on timing, just good old common sense.
Of course with big bubbles like we just had in real estate everybody is affected in some way or another.
Just look at Detroit or Michigan they were not really frothy, ok they were frothy but not bubbilicious, but right now they are selling houses below inflation indexed prices.

[moneymaker]

I think the best way to profit from a bubble is to not be part of the collateral damage when it pops. That way you are not really relying on timing, just good old common sense.
Of course with big bubbles like we just had in real estate everybody is affected in some way or another.
Just look at Detroit or Michigan they were not really frothy, ok they were frothy but not bubbilicious, but right now they are selling houses below inflation indexed prices.

[moneymaker]

I think the best way to profit from a bubble is to not be part of the collateral damage when it pops. That way you are not really relying on timing, just good old common sense.
Of course with big bubbles like we just had in real estate everybody is affected in some way or another.
Just look at Detroit or Michigan they were not really frothy, ok they were frothy but not bubbilicious, but right now they are selling houses below inflation indexed prices.

[moneymaker]

I think the best way to profit from a bubble is to not be part of the collateral damage when it pops. That way you are not really relying on timing, just good old common sense.
Of course with big bubbles like we just had in real estate everybody is affected in some way or another.
Just look at Detroit or Michigan they were not really frothy, ok they were frothy but not bubbilicious, but right now they are selling houses below inflation indexed prices.

[Author]

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