The next chunk down in Temecula

[hipmatt]

TG, my experiences are completely different. I am seeing new listings come on the market with 2005 bubble prices. I am seeing sellers in denial and many basic tract homes priced above $200 per square foot. I was actually going to post a thread to get everyones opinions.

Take Crown Hill, which is way over valued. Most of the homes in there are still over $500k and many are nearly $700k. I am shocked, these homes have been on the market for months. What do the sellers think is going to happen?

From what I’ve seen, the desirable Bank owned homes that are priced well get MANY(I’ve seen about 5 properties that have had at least 20 offers) offers, and usually sell within 3 days of being on the market. I can only assume that all of the buyers are competing for these drastically reduced homes, while the clowns selling their McMansions for $650k will be victims of 2009.

[hipmatt]

Heres an example…
over 100 days on the market.. over 600k..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32881-Northshire-Cir-92592/home/6368550
and a few more, but with different specs.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32896-NORTHSIRE-Cir-92592/home/6368525
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/42129-Faber-Ct-92592/home/6367230
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/32469-Castle-Ct-92592/home/6368365

This single story in Chardonnay Hills is something that I would consider if priced closer to $100 per foot, now I know it has a pool, but this home needs to reduce its price by over 50% just to come close to $100 per foot. Maybe a list price in this market of about $325k?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/TEMECULA/31861-CERCLE-CHAMBERTIN-92591/home/6226752/sandicor-081010975

Anyways, TG, I’m not seeing the next chunk down, I’m seeing the next chunk up. What gives? How long can these sellers stay at these insane prices? I am not bullish by any means on housing, but there seems to be no real deals. Is this the spring/summer rally that we all expected? Are all of these listings going to turn into REOs for 2009? Temecula has to be hurting… from gas prices to lack of employment…

After thinking about it, I don’t think this is the last wheel off of the bus. I still think that there’s more to fall up here. The effects of food and energy inflation haven’t quite set in, and I think they will in the next few months/years. We know that this area is more prone to the bad effects of higher gas prices than others. Also, we still have a huge number of homes in the bank owned pipeline. You and I both know this and these homes won’t be listed for another 6 months or so. The contraction in jobs this year will likely increase a bit more and that will also have a delayed effect on the housing market. Not to mention the reset chart will still be strong going forward, and home owners now realize that they can live about 8 months rent free in their dying home, only postponing the inevitable.

I just think we are at a flat spot in the downward staircase of home prices. I honestly feel like in the next 4-10 months, there will be another significant price movement downward over in this valley. I know this sounds a bit speculative, but I guess only time will tell. Theres no way that we have bottomed in the Temecula Valley.

[hipmatt]

Heres an example…
over 100 days on the market.. over 600k..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32881-Northshire-Cir-92592/home/6368550
and a few more, but with different specs.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32896-NORTHSIRE-Cir-92592/home/6368525
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/42129-Faber-Ct-92592/home/6367230
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/32469-Castle-Ct-92592/home/6368365

This single story in Chardonnay Hills is something that I would consider if priced closer to $100 per foot, now I know it has a pool, but this home needs to reduce its price by over 50% just to come close to $100 per foot. Maybe a list price in this market of about $325k?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/TEMECULA/31861-CERCLE-CHAMBERTIN-92591/home/6226752/sandicor-081010975

Anyways, TG, I’m not seeing the next chunk down, I’m seeing the next chunk up. What gives? How long can these sellers stay at these insane prices? I am not bullish by any means on housing, but there seems to be no real deals. Is this the spring/summer rally that we all expected? Are all of these listings going to turn into REOs for 2009? Temecula has to be hurting… from gas prices to lack of employment…

After thinking about it, I don’t think this is the last wheel off of the bus. I still think that there’s more to fall up here. The effects of food and energy inflation haven’t quite set in, and I think they will in the next few months/years. We know that this area is more prone to the bad effects of higher gas prices than others. Also, we still have a huge number of homes in the bank owned pipeline. You and I both know this and these homes won’t be listed for another 6 months or so. The contraction in jobs this year will likely increase a bit more and that will also have a delayed effect on the housing market. Not to mention the reset chart will still be strong going forward, and home owners now realize that they can live about 8 months rent free in their dying home, only postponing the inevitable.

I just think we are at a flat spot in the downward staircase of home prices. I honestly feel like in the next 4-10 months, there will be another significant price movement downward over in this valley. I know this sounds a bit speculative, but I guess only time will tell. Theres no way that we have bottomed in the Temecula Valley.

[hipmatt]

Heres an example…
over 100 days on the market.. over 600k..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32881-Northshire-Cir-92592/home/6368550
and a few more, but with different specs.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32896-NORTHSIRE-Cir-92592/home/6368525
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/42129-Faber-Ct-92592/home/6367230
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/32469-Castle-Ct-92592/home/6368365

This single story in Chardonnay Hills is something that I would consider if priced closer to $100 per foot, now I know it has a pool, but this home needs to reduce its price by over 50% just to come close to $100 per foot. Maybe a list price in this market of about $325k?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/TEMECULA/31861-CERCLE-CHAMBERTIN-92591/home/6226752/sandicor-081010975

Anyways, TG, I’m not seeing the next chunk down, I’m seeing the next chunk up. What gives? How long can these sellers stay at these insane prices? I am not bullish by any means on housing, but there seems to be no real deals. Is this the spring/summer rally that we all expected? Are all of these listings going to turn into REOs for 2009? Temecula has to be hurting… from gas prices to lack of employment…

After thinking about it, I don’t think this is the last wheel off of the bus. I still think that there’s more to fall up here. The effects of food and energy inflation haven’t quite set in, and I think they will in the next few months/years. We know that this area is more prone to the bad effects of higher gas prices than others. Also, we still have a huge number of homes in the bank owned pipeline. You and I both know this and these homes won’t be listed for another 6 months or so. The contraction in jobs this year will likely increase a bit more and that will also have a delayed effect on the housing market. Not to mention the reset chart will still be strong going forward, and home owners now realize that they can live about 8 months rent free in their dying home, only postponing the inevitable.

I just think we are at a flat spot in the downward staircase of home prices. I honestly feel like in the next 4-10 months, there will be another significant price movement downward over in this valley. I know this sounds a bit speculative, but I guess only time will tell. Theres no way that we have bottomed in the Temecula Valley.

[hipmatt]

Heres an example…
over 100 days on the market.. over 600k..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32881-Northshire-Cir-92592/home/6368550
and a few more, but with different specs.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32896-NORTHSIRE-Cir-92592/home/6368525
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/42129-Faber-Ct-92592/home/6367230
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/32469-Castle-Ct-92592/home/6368365

This single story in Chardonnay Hills is something that I would consider if priced closer to $100 per foot, now I know it has a pool, but this home needs to reduce its price by over 50% just to come close to $100 per foot. Maybe a list price in this market of about $325k?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/TEMECULA/31861-CERCLE-CHAMBERTIN-92591/home/6226752/sandicor-081010975

Anyways, TG, I’m not seeing the next chunk down, I’m seeing the next chunk up. What gives? How long can these sellers stay at these insane prices? I am not bullish by any means on housing, but there seems to be no real deals. Is this the spring/summer rally that we all expected? Are all of these listings going to turn into REOs for 2009? Temecula has to be hurting… from gas prices to lack of employment…

After thinking about it, I don’t think this is the last wheel off of the bus. I still think that there’s more to fall up here. The effects of food and energy inflation haven’t quite set in, and I think they will in the next few months/years. We know that this area is more prone to the bad effects of higher gas prices than others. Also, we still have a huge number of homes in the bank owned pipeline. You and I both know this and these homes won’t be listed for another 6 months or so. The contraction in jobs this year will likely increase a bit more and that will also have a delayed effect on the housing market. Not to mention the reset chart will still be strong going forward, and home owners now realize that they can live about 8 months rent free in their dying home, only postponing the inevitable.

I just think we are at a flat spot in the downward staircase of home prices. I honestly feel like in the next 4-10 months, there will be another significant price movement downward over in this valley. I know this sounds a bit speculative, but I guess only time will tell. Theres no way that we have bottomed in the Temecula Valley.

[hipmatt]

Heres an example…
over 100 days on the market.. over 600k..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32881-Northshire-Cir-92592/home/6368550
and a few more, but with different specs.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32896-NORTHSIRE-Cir-92592/home/6368525
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/42129-Faber-Ct-92592/home/6367230
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/32469-Castle-Ct-92592/home/6368365

This single story in Chardonnay Hills is something that I would consider if priced closer to $100 per foot, now I know it has a pool, but this home needs to reduce its price by over 50% just to come close to $100 per foot. Maybe a list price in this market of about $325k?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/TEMECULA/31861-CERCLE-CHAMBERTIN-92591/home/6226752/sandicor-081010975

Anyways, TG, I’m not seeing the next chunk down, I’m seeing the next chunk up. What gives? How long can these sellers stay at these insane prices? I am not bullish by any means on housing, but there seems to be no real deals. Is this the spring/summer rally that we all expected? Are all of these listings going to turn into REOs for 2009? Temecula has to be hurting… from gas prices to lack of employment…

After thinking about it, I don’t think this is the last wheel off of the bus. I still think that there’s more to fall up here. The effects of food and energy inflation haven’t quite set in, and I think they will in the next few months/years. We know that this area is more prone to the bad effects of higher gas prices than others. Also, we still have a huge number of homes in the bank owned pipeline. You and I both know this and these homes won’t be listed for another 6 months or so. The contraction in jobs this year will likely increase a bit more and that will also have a delayed effect on the housing market. Not to mention the reset chart will still be strong going forward, and home owners now realize that they can live about 8 months rent free in their dying home, only postponing the inevitable.

I just think we are at a flat spot in the downward staircase of home prices. I honestly feel like in the next 4-10 months, there will be another significant price movement downward over in this valley. I know this sounds a bit speculative, but I guess only time will tell. Theres no way that we have bottomed in the Temecula Valley.

[maybe]

Take Crown Hill, which is way over valued. Most of the homes in there are still over $500k and many are nearly $700k. I am shocked, these homes have been on the market for months. What do the sellers think is going to happen?

Think of it from the perspective of a seller with a bubble-level, I/O or neg am purchase money mortgage.

There are two options:
1) sell for enough to pay off your mortgage; or

2) (short) sell for less than your mortgage and ruin your credit rating.

With option 2, it doesn’t matter whether you sell for 100k$ less than your mortgage or 200k$ less– your credit rating is ruined in either case. You have no incentive to actually sell before the price drops get more severe since your cost (i.e., your credit rating) is ruined no matter how much the bank loses. The only thing that saves you this cost is selling at bubble-level prices…

[maybe]

Take Crown Hill, which is way over valued. Most of the homes in there are still over $500k and many are nearly $700k. I am shocked, these homes have been on the market for months. What do the sellers think is going to happen?

Think of it from the perspective of a seller with a bubble-level, I/O or neg am purchase money mortgage.

There are two options:
1) sell for enough to pay off your mortgage; or

2) (short) sell for less than your mortgage and ruin your credit rating.

With option 2, it doesn’t matter whether you sell for 100k$ less than your mortgage or 200k$ less– your credit rating is ruined in either case. You have no incentive to actually sell before the price drops get more severe since your cost (i.e., your credit rating) is ruined no matter how much the bank loses. The only thing that saves you this cost is selling at bubble-level prices…

[maybe]

Take Crown Hill, which is way over valued. Most of the homes in there are still over $500k and many are nearly $700k. I am shocked, these homes have been on the market for months. What do the sellers think is going to happen?

Think of it from the perspective of a seller with a bubble-level, I/O or neg am purchase money mortgage.

There are two options:
1) sell for enough to pay off your mortgage; or

2) (short) sell for less than your mortgage and ruin your credit rating.

With option 2, it doesn’t matter whether you sell for 100k$ less than your mortgage or 200k$ less– your credit rating is ruined in either case. You have no incentive to actually sell before the price drops get more severe since your cost (i.e., your credit rating) is ruined no matter how much the bank loses. The only thing that saves you this cost is selling at bubble-level prices…

[maybe]

Take Crown Hill, which is way over valued. Most of the homes in there are still over $500k and many are nearly $700k. I am shocked, these homes have been on the market for months. What do the sellers think is going to happen?

Think of it from the perspective of a seller with a bubble-level, I/O or neg am purchase money mortgage.

There are two options:
1) sell for enough to pay off your mortgage; or

2) (short) sell for less than your mortgage and ruin your credit rating.

With option 2, it doesn’t matter whether you sell for 100k$ less than your mortgage or 200k$ less– your credit rating is ruined in either case. You have no incentive to actually sell before the price drops get more severe since your cost (i.e., your credit rating) is ruined no matter how much the bank loses. The only thing that saves you this cost is selling at bubble-level prices…

[maybe]

Take Crown Hill, which is way over valued. Most of the homes in there are still over $500k and many are nearly $700k. I am shocked, these homes have been on the market for months. What do the sellers think is going to happen?

Think of it from the perspective of a seller with a bubble-level, I/O or neg am purchase money mortgage.

There are two options:
1) sell for enough to pay off your mortgage; or

2) (short) sell for less than your mortgage and ruin your credit rating.

With option 2, it doesn’t matter whether you sell for 100k$ less than your mortgage or 200k$ less– your credit rating is ruined in either case. You have no incentive to actually sell before the price drops get more severe since your cost (i.e., your credit rating) is ruined no matter how much the bank loses. The only thing that saves you this cost is selling at bubble-level prices…

[5yes]

We just signed another year lease here in Temecula and are happy to be out of the desperately waiting and searching the mls every day stage that we have been in the last couple of months. I agree with hipmatt and others who think there is still a long way down to go. My concern is that after elections the interest rates will shoot up pretty quickly, but even with that considered I don’t think now is a wise time to buy.

Did anyone see the article in the North County Times yesterday that said:

“As of mid-April, lenders owned 449 foreclosed homes in Temecula and surrounding areas that share its three ZIP codes, and an additional 1,000 homes were in earlier stages of the foreclosure process, according to Foreclosureradar.com, a subscriber service that tracks foreclosures statewide.

Lake Elsinore, a smaller city, had 423 lender-owned properties and nearly 1,000 others in foreclosure. Murrieta and areas just to the east and west of that city had 691 foreclosed homes and an additional 1,400 on the way, according to the service.”

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/28/news/californian/temecula/ncted940a3571a641d48825742e00620.txt

Does anyone have evidence that supports or refutes these figures? If they are correct, then waiting longer can only bring better deals as the banks fight it out…

[5yes]

We just signed another year lease here in Temecula and are happy to be out of the desperately waiting and searching the mls every day stage that we have been in the last couple of months. I agree with hipmatt and others who think there is still a long way down to go. My concern is that after elections the interest rates will shoot up pretty quickly, but even with that considered I don’t think now is a wise time to buy.

Did anyone see the article in the North County Times yesterday that said:

“As of mid-April, lenders owned 449 foreclosed homes in Temecula and surrounding areas that share its three ZIP codes, and an additional 1,000 homes were in earlier stages of the foreclosure process, according to Foreclosureradar.com, a subscriber service that tracks foreclosures statewide.

Lake Elsinore, a smaller city, had 423 lender-owned properties and nearly 1,000 others in foreclosure. Murrieta and areas just to the east and west of that city had 691 foreclosed homes and an additional 1,400 on the way, according to the service.”

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/28/news/californian/temecula/ncted940a3571a641d48825742e00620.txt

Does anyone have evidence that supports or refutes these figures? If they are correct, then waiting longer can only bring better deals as the banks fight it out…

[5yes]

We just signed another year lease here in Temecula and are happy to be out of the desperately waiting and searching the mls every day stage that we have been in the last couple of months. I agree with hipmatt and others who think there is still a long way down to go. My concern is that after elections the interest rates will shoot up pretty quickly, but even with that considered I don’t think now is a wise time to buy.

Did anyone see the article in the North County Times yesterday that said:

“As of mid-April, lenders owned 449 foreclosed homes in Temecula and surrounding areas that share its three ZIP codes, and an additional 1,000 homes were in earlier stages of the foreclosure process, according to Foreclosureradar.com, a subscriber service that tracks foreclosures statewide.

Lake Elsinore, a smaller city, had 423 lender-owned properties and nearly 1,000 others in foreclosure. Murrieta and areas just to the east and west of that city had 691 foreclosed homes and an additional 1,400 on the way, according to the service.”

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/28/news/californian/temecula/ncted940a3571a641d48825742e00620.txt

Does anyone have evidence that supports or refutes these figures? If they are correct, then waiting longer can only bring better deals as the banks fight it out…

[5yes]

We just signed another year lease here in Temecula and are happy to be out of the desperately waiting and searching the mls every day stage that we have been in the last couple of months. I agree with hipmatt and others who think there is still a long way down to go. My concern is that after elections the interest rates will shoot up pretty quickly, but even with that considered I don’t think now is a wise time to buy.

Did anyone see the article in the North County Times yesterday that said:

“As of mid-April, lenders owned 449 foreclosed homes in Temecula and surrounding areas that share its three ZIP codes, and an additional 1,000 homes were in earlier stages of the foreclosure process, according to Foreclosureradar.com, a subscriber service that tracks foreclosures statewide.

Lake Elsinore, a smaller city, had 423 lender-owned properties and nearly 1,000 others in foreclosure. Murrieta and areas just to the east and west of that city had 691 foreclosed homes and an additional 1,400 on the way, according to the service.”

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/28/news/californian/temecula/ncted940a3571a641d48825742e00620.txt

Does anyone have evidence that supports or refutes these figures? If they are correct, then waiting longer can only bring better deals as the banks fight it out…

[Author]

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