The “Inexorable Demand” Meme Rears Its Head Again

[DWCAP]

Look guys, this guy will be proven right. Not because he is right but because eventually he will be naturally. Ok, so in 1 year we are in a recession and things are going down hill. He can then say “well I said one or two”. In two years itll be no one saw the terrible decline we went into, so give it 3 years. 5 years from now things will prob be getting better than they are now. Banks will have failed, loans reweritten, and even the biggest bears here dont think 2013 is going to mirror 2007. So things get better eventually as they always do if you wait long enough and then he was right.
It is the same argument as “gasoline will be $4 some day”. 5 years ago everyone would have looked at you like you had an alien on your face. Now we kinda shrug and move on.

[kev374]

well, prices have started to stabilize. I just don’t see the downward price movement that I saw in the latter half of 2007. I’m the first to cheer falling prices but I am not blind, been watching the listings in the OC market, since Dec 2007 prices have flatlined and several properties have mysteriously disappeared off the listings. I don’t know the reasons for this but I am thinking we may be in a mini rally phase.

[kev374]

well, prices have started to stabilize. I just don’t see the downward price movement that I saw in the latter half of 2007. I’m the first to cheer falling prices but I am not blind, been watching the listings in the OC market, since Dec 2007 prices have flatlined and several properties have mysteriously disappeared off the listings. I don’t know the reasons for this but I am thinking we may be in a mini rally phase.

[kev374]

well, prices have started to stabilize. I just don’t see the downward price movement that I saw in the latter half of 2007. I’m the first to cheer falling prices but I am not blind, been watching the listings in the OC market, since Dec 2007 prices have flatlined and several properties have mysteriously disappeared off the listings. I don’t know the reasons for this but I am thinking we may be in a mini rally phase.

[kev374]

well, prices have started to stabilize. I just don’t see the downward price movement that I saw in the latter half of 2007. I’m the first to cheer falling prices but I am not blind, been watching the listings in the OC market, since Dec 2007 prices have flatlined and several properties have mysteriously disappeared off the listings. I don’t know the reasons for this but I am thinking we may be in a mini rally phase.

[kev374]

well, prices have started to stabilize. I just don’t see the downward price movement that I saw in the latter half of 2007. I’m the first to cheer falling prices but I am not blind, been watching the listings in the OC market, since Dec 2007 prices have flatlined and several properties have mysteriously disappeared off the listings. I don’t know the reasons for this but I am thinking we may be in a mini rally phase.

[CricketOnTheHearth]

I’ve been thinking about what hipmatt said earlier:

“…while most of the population increases are from migration of relatively poor and creditless illegal immigrants. Good luck selling houses at these prices to them…”

There is a phenomenon I see here, involving (presumably) legal immigrants, where a large family (or several) buy into a house together and all chip in to make the payments. Thus you get 10 or more people crammed into a “single family” house and loads of cars parked in the street in front of and around it. I think it’s in fact aggravated by the “McMansionisation” of housing. The failure to build smaller, affordable houses doesn’t necessarily block these people from buying… it just gives them incentive to pile multiple people into a big house instead of one family into a smaller one. Escondido is wrestling with this problem now and I see it to some extent in Mira Mesa too. So just because they are poor immigrants doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t buy houses… just as likely, IMO, that they will pile into houses, resulting in overcrowded on-street parking.

On a related topic, about “the illegals”… I’ve seen an anecdotal comment from the U.S. Southeast (someone in building trades), and a recent article in the U-T about a big decrease in the San Ysidro cross-border traffic. Whether they are illegals, green-card legals, or what, it may be that the drop in jobs in the U.S. due to our recession is initially being soaked up by the immigrant/temporary workers. In other words, they are being laid off first, and are going/staying home (to Mexico/Central America). I have no idea in what numbers but it’s something to watch out for.

One last thing. When discussing immigration, we need to draw a bright hard line between “illegal” and “legal” immigrants. I see people on both sides of the debate blur this line constantly and it is a never-ending source of aggravation to me. Just because someone is brown and poor doesn’t necessarily mean they are illegal (or because someone is a white professional doesn’t mean they are legal– just look at our Governator). Go down to Golden Hall on a new-citizen-induction ceremony day. 1,000 people, mostly brown, come walking out those doors– and they are all not only “legal”, they are newly-minted American citizens.

>chirp<

[CricketOnTheHearth]

I’ve been thinking about what hipmatt said earlier:

“…while most of the population increases are from migration of relatively poor and creditless illegal immigrants. Good luck selling houses at these prices to them…”

There is a phenomenon I see here, involving (presumably) legal immigrants, where a large family (or several) buy into a house together and all chip in to make the payments. Thus you get 10 or more people crammed into a “single family” house and loads of cars parked in the street in front of and around it. I think it’s in fact aggravated by the “McMansionisation” of housing. The failure to build smaller, affordable houses doesn’t necessarily block these people from buying… it just gives them incentive to pile multiple people into a big house instead of one family into a smaller one. Escondido is wrestling with this problem now and I see it to some extent in Mira Mesa too. So just because they are poor immigrants doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t buy houses… just as likely, IMO, that they will pile into houses, resulting in overcrowded on-street parking.

On a related topic, about “the illegals”… I’ve seen an anecdotal comment from the U.S. Southeast (someone in building trades), and a recent article in the U-T about a big decrease in the San Ysidro cross-border traffic. Whether they are illegals, green-card legals, or what, it may be that the drop in jobs in the U.S. due to our recession is initially being soaked up by the immigrant/temporary workers. In other words, they are being laid off first, and are going/staying home (to Mexico/Central America). I have no idea in what numbers but it’s something to watch out for.

One last thing. When discussing immigration, we need to draw a bright hard line between “illegal” and “legal” immigrants. I see people on both sides of the debate blur this line constantly and it is a never-ending source of aggravation to me. Just because someone is brown and poor doesn’t necessarily mean they are illegal (or because someone is a white professional doesn’t mean they are legal– just look at our Governator). Go down to Golden Hall on a new-citizen-induction ceremony day. 1,000 people, mostly brown, come walking out those doors– and they are all not only “legal”, they are newly-minted American citizens.

>chirp<

[CricketOnTheHearth]

I’ve been thinking about what hipmatt said earlier:

“…while most of the population increases are from migration of relatively poor and creditless illegal immigrants. Good luck selling houses at these prices to them…”

There is a phenomenon I see here, involving (presumably) legal immigrants, where a large family (or several) buy into a house together and all chip in to make the payments. Thus you get 10 or more people crammed into a “single family” house and loads of cars parked in the street in front of and around it. I think it’s in fact aggravated by the “McMansionisation” of housing. The failure to build smaller, affordable houses doesn’t necessarily block these people from buying… it just gives them incentive to pile multiple people into a big house instead of one family into a smaller one. Escondido is wrestling with this problem now and I see it to some extent in Mira Mesa too. So just because they are poor immigrants doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t buy houses… just as likely, IMO, that they will pile into houses, resulting in overcrowded on-street parking.

On a related topic, about “the illegals”… I’ve seen an anecdotal comment from the U.S. Southeast (someone in building trades), and a recent article in the U-T about a big decrease in the San Ysidro cross-border traffic. Whether they are illegals, green-card legals, or what, it may be that the drop in jobs in the U.S. due to our recession is initially being soaked up by the immigrant/temporary workers. In other words, they are being laid off first, and are going/staying home (to Mexico/Central America). I have no idea in what numbers but it’s something to watch out for.

One last thing. When discussing immigration, we need to draw a bright hard line between “illegal” and “legal” immigrants. I see people on both sides of the debate blur this line constantly and it is a never-ending source of aggravation to me. Just because someone is brown and poor doesn’t necessarily mean they are illegal (or because someone is a white professional doesn’t mean they are legal– just look at our Governator). Go down to Golden Hall on a new-citizen-induction ceremony day. 1,000 people, mostly brown, come walking out those doors– and they are all not only “legal”, they are newly-minted American citizens.

>chirp<

[CricketOnTheHearth]

I’ve been thinking about what hipmatt said earlier:

“…while most of the population increases are from migration of relatively poor and creditless illegal immigrants. Good luck selling houses at these prices to them…”

There is a phenomenon I see here, involving (presumably) legal immigrants, where a large family (or several) buy into a house together and all chip in to make the payments. Thus you get 10 or more people crammed into a “single family” house and loads of cars parked in the street in front of and around it. I think it’s in fact aggravated by the “McMansionisation” of housing. The failure to build smaller, affordable houses doesn’t necessarily block these people from buying… it just gives them incentive to pile multiple people into a big house instead of one family into a smaller one. Escondido is wrestling with this problem now and I see it to some extent in Mira Mesa too. So just because they are poor immigrants doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t buy houses… just as likely, IMO, that they will pile into houses, resulting in overcrowded on-street parking.

On a related topic, about “the illegals”… I’ve seen an anecdotal comment from the U.S. Southeast (someone in building trades), and a recent article in the U-T about a big decrease in the San Ysidro cross-border traffic. Whether they are illegals, green-card legals, or what, it may be that the drop in jobs in the U.S. due to our recession is initially being soaked up by the immigrant/temporary workers. In other words, they are being laid off first, and are going/staying home (to Mexico/Central America). I have no idea in what numbers but it’s something to watch out for.

One last thing. When discussing immigration, we need to draw a bright hard line between “illegal” and “legal” immigrants. I see people on both sides of the debate blur this line constantly and it is a never-ending source of aggravation to me. Just because someone is brown and poor doesn’t necessarily mean they are illegal (or because someone is a white professional doesn’t mean they are legal– just look at our Governator). Go down to Golden Hall on a new-citizen-induction ceremony day. 1,000 people, mostly brown, come walking out those doors– and they are all not only “legal”, they are newly-minted American citizens.

>chirp<

[CricketOnTheHearth]

I’ve been thinking about what hipmatt said earlier:

“…while most of the population increases are from migration of relatively poor and creditless illegal immigrants. Good luck selling houses at these prices to them…”

There is a phenomenon I see here, involving (presumably) legal immigrants, where a large family (or several) buy into a house together and all chip in to make the payments. Thus you get 10 or more people crammed into a “single family” house and loads of cars parked in the street in front of and around it. I think it’s in fact aggravated by the “McMansionisation” of housing. The failure to build smaller, affordable houses doesn’t necessarily block these people from buying… it just gives them incentive to pile multiple people into a big house instead of one family into a smaller one. Escondido is wrestling with this problem now and I see it to some extent in Mira Mesa too. So just because they are poor immigrants doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t buy houses… just as likely, IMO, that they will pile into houses, resulting in overcrowded on-street parking.

On a related topic, about “the illegals”… I’ve seen an anecdotal comment from the U.S. Southeast (someone in building trades), and a recent article in the U-T about a big decrease in the San Ysidro cross-border traffic. Whether they are illegals, green-card legals, or what, it may be that the drop in jobs in the U.S. due to our recession is initially being soaked up by the immigrant/temporary workers. In other words, they are being laid off first, and are going/staying home (to Mexico/Central America). I have no idea in what numbers but it’s something to watch out for.

One last thing. When discussing immigration, we need to draw a bright hard line between “illegal” and “legal” immigrants. I see people on both sides of the debate blur this line constantly and it is a never-ending source of aggravation to me. Just because someone is brown and poor doesn’t necessarily mean they are illegal (or because someone is a white professional doesn’t mean they are legal– just look at our Governator). Go down to Golden Hall on a new-citizen-induction ceremony day. 1,000 people, mostly brown, come walking out those doors– and they are all not only “legal”, they are newly-minted American citizens.

>chirp<

[Navydoc]

I understand how multiple families contribute to paying the mortgage on a McMansion, but doesn’t a SFR have to be initially purchased by ONE family who must qualify for the home all by themselves? It’s easy to see in the days of liar loans how this happened, but now that lending standards have tightened I presume the multiple family scenario is a little more difficult to pull off. Any in the lending industry want to weigh in on this?

[Navydoc]

I understand how multiple families contribute to paying the mortgage on a McMansion, but doesn’t a SFR have to be initially purchased by ONE family who must qualify for the home all by themselves? It’s easy to see in the days of liar loans how this happened, but now that lending standards have tightened I presume the multiple family scenario is a little more difficult to pull off. Any in the lending industry want to weigh in on this?

[Navydoc]

I understand how multiple families contribute to paying the mortgage on a McMansion, but doesn’t a SFR have to be initially purchased by ONE family who must qualify for the home all by themselves? It’s easy to see in the days of liar loans how this happened, but now that lending standards have tightened I presume the multiple family scenario is a little more difficult to pull off. Any in the lending industry want to weigh in on this?

[Navydoc]

I understand how multiple families contribute to paying the mortgage on a McMansion, but doesn’t a SFR have to be initially purchased by ONE family who must qualify for the home all by themselves? It’s easy to see in the days of liar loans how this happened, but now that lending standards have tightened I presume the multiple family scenario is a little more difficult to pull off. Any in the lending industry want to weigh in on this?

[Author]

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