The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

[davelj]

“Maybe I am a fool, but I do not believe in blaming or crediting luck for things that happen.”

Is that so? Three billion people on this planet live on less than $2 per day. There are over 6 billion people on the planet currently. If I had to guess – and correct me if I’m wrong – I’d bet that you were BORN into circumstances that would put you in the top 2% or so of the planet with respect to socio-economic opportunities. I’m curious, how do you think you’d be faring right now, Chris, if you were born in the middle of China or India or Africa, etc.? My guess is pretty much like most everyone else born into those circumstances… not well.

My point: looking at things from a big picture perspective, the single most important determinant of one’s socio-economic situation is that which one is born into, which is 100% luck. If you can’t see the role of luck in “things that happen,” then you clearly haven’t thought about it in much depth.

But more specifically with respect to business, investing, etc., I don’t disagree with some of the things you’re saying. But your phrase “after the fact” is critical. Most people don’t realize that they were taking too much risk until after the fact and often such “after the fact” probabilities weren’t knowable “before the fact.”

Were the business owners bankrupted by Katrina stupid for locating their businesses in New Orleans? Were the companies crippled by the World Trade Center terrorist attacks dumb for locating themselves in those towers? Is it reasonable to plan your business around $8 per barrel oil?

I will agree with you that many, and probably most, failures are the result of bad planning somewhere down the line. But, not all are – some are just plain bad luck.

Life is full of randomness that as humans we don’t want to admit and are not wired to comprehend. Such randomness has a far more profound affect on our lives that we care to think about, particularly if we’re successful and value a large measure of control over our destinies.

[powayseller]

I agree with all of you.

Our circumstances are due to our karma from our past actions, in this and past lives, and from our current actions.

[PD]

Luck is a factor in everyone’s life. However, some people are very good a greating luck or seeing a lucky opportunity that others miss. Some people see the lucky opportunity but are too lazy to act on it. Others see it but can’t act on it for some reason.
Most people who have earned great wealth have done so because they were smart. But I’m sure they have had some lucky breaks. They have also been prepared in case bad luck hits them.
I’m a planner. Everytime I get on a plane, I plan my exit in an emergency. I count the rows and locate all the exits, etc.
My husband once asked me what I would do if he died. I launched into my detailed plan. When I was done, he had a stunned look on his face and even seemed a little upset that I had thought it out. He has a very dangerous job, I’d be stupid not to have figured out what do if the worst happened.
I’m trying to be patient for the right opportunity. I hope I can recognize it when it comes along!

[docteur]

I do not believe in luck. Good or bad. Nor do I believe in fate or destiny.

The circumstances you are born into have nothing to do with how your life turns out (there are plenty of people born into wealth who die in poverty and plenty of people born into poverty who die wealthy – the world abounds with these type of stories).

I do believe in intention and taking responsibility for one’s life, good or bad. I believe in holding the “right” beliefs, ones that create what you desire in your life.

It is useful for me to believe that I am 100% responsible for my particular set of circumstances, regardless of what they are at any particular point in time. That way, I am able to take full and total responsibility (as opposed to being a victim) for my life, which is a very powerful position to operate from.

It isn’t about control, to the contrary, it is about relinquishing control. It’s about accepting our own particular creation, our experience of life and reveling in it.

I am truly amazed at both the “good” and the “bad” I can create in my life. I believe I created the time and place of my birth as I will also create the time and place of my death. I also believe I create everything that happens between those two experiences (our life).

Taking that belief a step further, it follows that had I been in the World Trade Center when those planes hit or in New Orleans when the flood waters rose and took my business, I would have to take full responsibility for being in that place at that time, regardless of the circumstances and eventual outcome, because I put myself there by my actions, my choices in life.

What this does for me, is it allows me to live totally free and not be at the effect of my circumstances, so I can accept them willingly, because I created them. I can embrace my life, regardless of what it looks like. By living this way, fear disappears. I become the master in my universe.

If ever I want to know my intentions, I simply look at the results I have produced. If I don’t like the results, I analyze them and then change my intentions. I am therefore free to choose to change my circumstances by creating a new set of choices.

So, living that way, holding that belief, I am able to avoid good or bad luck (especially since I do not believe in their existence) and simply live with that which I have created. There is no fate, no luck, just what I intend, just the results of my actions. (And admittedly, oftentimes what we think we consciously intend is just the opposite of the results produced).

What’s the point in holding a belief that doesn’t serve you? Believing in bad luck, fate, destiny or randomness puts you at the effect of life, as opposed to being the cause of it.

Einstein once said the most important choice you can make in life is how you view the world. Either it is friendly and supports your purpose (you are at cause) or it is dangerous and thwarts your purpose (you are at effect).

Life is cause and effect. I choose to be cause in my life(responsible); some choose to be effect in their life (victim).

After all, life is simply the result of the choices you make. Believe what you want but believe that which supports your own particular vision for your individual life. Trust your choices. Embrace your life and everything that’s in it, good or bad. After all, you created it.

[PD]

Docteur, I agree with you in many respects. However, I do think that there are random events that a person can’t control, can’t predict and which can’t be explained by a natural progression from previous behavior or choices. In my view, that qualifies as luck, either good or bad.
I am certainly not a fatalist, I don’t think things are preordained. Every person should empower themselves and take responsibility for their place in life.

[docteur]

PD – This might get a little out there but stick with me here.

I agree with you that from your perspective there are random events a person can’t control, can’t predict and which can’t be explained but given my perspective on life, random events simply don’t exist because I create those random events simply by the choice I made to be there and participate in the experience of them happening.

Unless I show up, “random” events don’t happen to me. So, the really funny thing is, whenever anything good or bad happens to me (what you call luck), I’m always right there when it happens. Nobody put me there but me.

So, in my view, I created whatever happened, to happen and when the illusion is that it is out of control, can’t be predicted or explained, in my world it always can be because I created it to be that way.

I say “I did that” a lot, regardless of what happens and oftentimes I surprise myself (much to my delight, regardless of the circumstances, “good or bad”).

To me, that’s the cosmic joke. By being totally out of control (the illusion) we are in control, without any effort whatsoever except the simple act of taking responsibility (the ability to respond).

For me, all life is cause and effect, because as soon as we make the choice that puts us in the “random” situation, it it can’t be “random” anymore because at some point, we made the choice to be there.

But hey, if it works for you to believe in luck and it’s useful in your life, then by all means, keep choosing that belief. I respect that. I am all for doing what works.

Now, having said that, I invite you to live for one week in the belief that you are 100% responsible for everything in your life, your world, your universe. Believe it with all your heart. Believe that you created it all and that you are totally responsible for the way it is turning out. Have fun with it.

Make believe that is your belief. Just pretend, like a child would, that you are the Master and Commander of your universe. Then watch what happens (without judgement).

When you take total responsibility for everything that happens to you during that week, for everything happening on the planet and from an even larger perspective, for everything that happens in the entire universe, something very interesting will start to happen (at least in my experience). You begin to laugh more, you lighten up and simply marvel at what you have created and what you are going to create.

Just pretend (because it’s all pretend anyway, nobody really knows). Watch how the feeling of power grows inside of you (kids are great at this). I love being around children because they have nothing on being really powerful. They say “I did that” a lot, regardless of what happens because I believe, in their purest sense; they know they are the ones creating their experiences, their lives, their universe.

Just do it for one week. Watch how the ownership of your life changes and then if it works better for you to hold that belief, change your belief. If not, well then stick with the good luck, bad luck, life is random in some instances theory. It has just as much validity as any other belief.

Believing in luck just never worked for me (that’s why I never gamble and rarely predict), because I always felt like to do that was to give up the power given to me from another source (God, Nature, Supreme Being…whatever you want to call it).

So I pretended that I was made of the stuff of whence I believe I came (the source of it all, pure intention, total responsibility, and unlimited power — you know, the force).

And then something really wonderful happened. I saw my life in a totally differnt way and it worked perfectly, regardless of my circumstances, which didn’t change one whit, but my perception of them changed a lot.

And because at that instant I took total responsibility for creating it the way it was (and the way it wasn’t), I figured if I could do that, well then heck, I could create it the way I wanted it to be, which I am in the process of doing everyday. My life is now pure magic, which is something I do believe in!

That simple process, of shifting my beliefs and pretending to be 100% responsible for it all, put me in my present state of mind. And now it’s my core belief. It makes my life real simple — good or bad — I did it. I get to own it. I created it. It’s totally my responsibility. Wow, I get to do it all and I get to respond again and again to what I have created and live in the process of constantly improving on it!

Life is funny, the older you get, the less you know until at some point you simply (as Fritz Perls said): “Lose your mind and come to your senses.”

As far as I can tell, we are the only creatures on the planet that believe in luck (well some of us do). I guess that’s why I’ve never had a dog named “Lucky” —

[PD]

Certainly, it is true that a person’s entire life a series of events, all interrelated with one another. By your definition, if you get in car accident, then the fault is your own for entering the car in the first place. In a way, I would agree with that idea, as the effect is reasonably predictable.
However, what if you are walking outside, on a treeless plain, the skies are blue, there is no wind, you are watching carefully for gopher holes and then WHACK, you get creamed by a meteorite. Bad luck or are you responsible for this happenstance? I contend that it is bad luck because this eventuality is so far from predictability that I would not take ownership of it.
I do happen to be a very empowered person. I don’t rely on luck. Instead, I try to order my life in a way where I am making my luck.
Your perspective is very interesting and I would really enjoy a discussion on the subject. I met a woman once who, along with her entire family, believed in reincarnation. They had a very elaborate belief system. It was fascinating. Perhaps she was right and that is way things really are.
Or, I’ve often wondered, could it be that if you believe it then the strength of your believe actually makes it truth?
Perhaps we are all right.
But then this makes you the most “right” out of us all. For if the strength of your belief makes it true, then that is the ultimate self-determination.

[docteur]

Please be clear I am not talking “fault” or blame here. Just total responsibility. If I get in a car wreck I am totally responsible. Whose fault it is will be determined by the courts or my insurance company.

And yes, if I get creamed by a meteorite (that example made me laugh out loud — see it’s already working, we are lightening up here or maybe I should say lighting up), I would be responsible for that event. I’d say I did that.

Taking responsibility has nothing to do with the probability of a certain event taking place. I can guarantee that if I am there, it will happen to me and I will be responsible because I am the one who put myself in that space to make that particular event occur.

Believing is seeing. Yes, belief has power to create physical reality. I have done it many, many times in my life. My favorite “mini-magic” is to create a vacant parking space right up front at a busy event. My wife can’t believe how I can do that on a consistent basis. I believe it will happen, that is my expectation and so it goes.

And, like Little Big Man said “Sometimes the magic works, and sometimes it doesn’t.” So, sometimes I have to park way in the back. And that’s OK too because I like to walk. So, whatever shows up, I’ll own it.

Lastly, no belief makes anyone right or wrong. Some beliefs are just more powerful than others, depending on what you want to create in your life.

My motto is “Whatever works for you, is what you should do.” But watch carefully what you believe because to be human is to have the power of creation and you will manifest that belief in your life, sooner or later.

Conversely, if you ever want to know what your beliefs and intentions are in life, just look at the results you produce. They will tell you right away what your inner most beliefs are.

So, if I believe I create everything in my universe and am responsible for everything that shows up in my life (no exceptions, not even for meteorites), then I believe I am pretty darned powerful. In the deepest sense, that is a good and most graceful place to be and death (our biggest fear) has no power over us because we believe that we have the power to create the start of our life and the end of it to.

Remember, regardless of the belief, the ultimate window to a person’s soul is to look at the results they produce in their lives. None are better or worse than others, only different and they in turn produce happiness or suffering.

Finally, I have one last belief I want to share with you: Music is the language of God and there is no sweeter music than the sound of laughter.

[lostkitty]

Docteur-

Your words wash over me in a lilting way – like yoga music.

Lovely….

[docteur]

lostkitty –

Namaste.

[lostkitty]

Ahhh… I love yoga… Beautiful… I am definitely going to do some today. Thank you!

[powayseller]

Docteur, I felt empowered just reading your prose. Thanks so much for sharing this with us. I’m glad you’re back, because I hope you read how much I appreciated that you gave us that personal insight into your wishes for your son to live in your home. I was thinking about that yesterday as I was running up that long mountain trail, what a lovely idea that is. You’ve also shown us that words can be used to uplift.

[docteur]

Hi Powayseller – Thank you for your kind words. And special thanks for your boundless energy in digging up new data to share. I really enjoy reading all your posts. And yes, I did read your most gracious comments regarding my son. I sincerely appreciate your support in my realization of that dream. Lastly, I want to acknowledge you for your unwavering committment to your children. I believe the single most important thing a parent can do is be there for their children. When we put the child first, all will be right with the world.

[lostkitty]

True true docteur!

[South Austin]

Beautiful Thread,

I have been lurking on this site since its genesis because I was lucky enough to meet the Professor during his all-to-brief Texas stay. The knowledge I have gained here is priceless.

Now I find myself coming back for these forums. I am incredibly impressed with many of the talented and successful people in here. I appreciate the effort that y’all put in to your posts. Please keep it up.

This last thread actually got me to register so that I could thank you badasses.

May you all enjoy your bargain beachfronts soon!

[Author]

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