The Decline Of Suburbia?

[sdrealtor]

Harry,
TG has got it right. Suburbs are less densely populated than the major urban areas they surround. Back East where I grew up, Northern New Jersey meets every point you made about the OC tenfold and more. Still it is merely a suburb of NYC.

sdr

[beanmaestro]

It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…

– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.

So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.

[beanmaestro]

It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…

– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.

So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.

[beanmaestro]

It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…

– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.

So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.

[beanmaestro]

It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…

– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.

So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.

[beanmaestro]

It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…

– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.

So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Although this is all Theory (and will take a while if it comes to pass).

There are a few futurists who predict Mega cities, (guess what, SD is one of them). The Mega cities will extend quite a ways, as long as you can get to the metro rail station, you will be within the mega city.

On the Subject of Temecula, I think whats going on in Temecula is more a function of too many homes sold to Speculators and too many homes sold in 2005 and 2006, really that is where you see the large number of foreclosures, the homes sold in 2005 & 2006, most of the places where homes were sold in 2002 & 2003, do not show this issue.

In the case of Temecula not really a mass exodus from an exurb just a lot of homes sold way over priced in 2005 and 2006 .

On the other hand those with the means will rent out their Temecula homes (no one will sell voluntarily at these levels) and move to say Carlsbad in a hartbeat if it becomes resonable to do so, but no I would not call that a mass exodus of exurbia .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Although this is all Theory (and will take a while if it comes to pass).

There are a few futurists who predict Mega cities, (guess what, SD is one of them). The Mega cities will extend quite a ways, as long as you can get to the metro rail station, you will be within the mega city.

On the Subject of Temecula, I think whats going on in Temecula is more a function of too many homes sold to Speculators and too many homes sold in 2005 and 2006, really that is where you see the large number of foreclosures, the homes sold in 2005 & 2006, most of the places where homes were sold in 2002 & 2003, do not show this issue.

In the case of Temecula not really a mass exodus from an exurb just a lot of homes sold way over priced in 2005 and 2006 .

On the other hand those with the means will rent out their Temecula homes (no one will sell voluntarily at these levels) and move to say Carlsbad in a hartbeat if it becomes resonable to do so, but no I would not call that a mass exodus of exurbia .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Although this is all Theory (and will take a while if it comes to pass).

There are a few futurists who predict Mega cities, (guess what, SD is one of them). The Mega cities will extend quite a ways, as long as you can get to the metro rail station, you will be within the mega city.

On the Subject of Temecula, I think whats going on in Temecula is more a function of too many homes sold to Speculators and too many homes sold in 2005 and 2006, really that is where you see the large number of foreclosures, the homes sold in 2005 & 2006, most of the places where homes were sold in 2002 & 2003, do not show this issue.

In the case of Temecula not really a mass exodus from an exurb just a lot of homes sold way over priced in 2005 and 2006 .

On the other hand those with the means will rent out their Temecula homes (no one will sell voluntarily at these levels) and move to say Carlsbad in a hartbeat if it becomes resonable to do so, but no I would not call that a mass exodus of exurbia .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Although this is all Theory (and will take a while if it comes to pass).

There are a few futurists who predict Mega cities, (guess what, SD is one of them). The Mega cities will extend quite a ways, as long as you can get to the metro rail station, you will be within the mega city.

On the Subject of Temecula, I think whats going on in Temecula is more a function of too many homes sold to Speculators and too many homes sold in 2005 and 2006, really that is where you see the large number of foreclosures, the homes sold in 2005 & 2006, most of the places where homes were sold in 2002 & 2003, do not show this issue.

In the case of Temecula not really a mass exodus from an exurb just a lot of homes sold way over priced in 2005 and 2006 .

On the other hand those with the means will rent out their Temecula homes (no one will sell voluntarily at these levels) and move to say Carlsbad in a hartbeat if it becomes resonable to do so, but no I would not call that a mass exodus of exurbia .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Although this is all Theory (and will take a while if it comes to pass).

There are a few futurists who predict Mega cities, (guess what, SD is one of them). The Mega cities will extend quite a ways, as long as you can get to the metro rail station, you will be within the mega city.

On the Subject of Temecula, I think whats going on in Temecula is more a function of too many homes sold to Speculators and too many homes sold in 2005 and 2006, really that is where you see the large number of foreclosures, the homes sold in 2005 & 2006, most of the places where homes were sold in 2002 & 2003, do not show this issue.

In the case of Temecula not really a mass exodus from an exurb just a lot of homes sold way over priced in 2005 and 2006 .

On the other hand those with the means will rent out their Temecula homes (no one will sell voluntarily at these levels) and move to say Carlsbad in a hartbeat if it becomes resonable to do so, but no I would not call that a mass exodus of exurbia .

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