The current pendings include a lot of must-sell listings

[Bugs]

Ove the weekend I took the liberty of thumbing through the current pendings for Carlsbad, Oceanside and Vista zip areas. I wanted to see how many of those listings include mention of significant seller motivation. “Significant” meaning that they were unable to not sell.

In addition to the usual suspects – Bank-owned foreclosure and short sales, I was also looking for mention of probate sales, corporate relocations, divorce, etc..

Without further ado:

City – Total pendings/must-sells/Percentage

Carlsbad – 157 sales/12 must-sells/7.6%
Oceanside – 179 Sales/39 Must-sells/18.4%
Vista – 94 Sales/25 Must-sells/26.6%

One thing I noticed is that not all the distressed sellers are putting anything into their listings to advertise that distress. I was able to identify a few of the Must-sell listings by clicking into public records on some listings with suspicious wording to find the sellers were banks (Duestche Bank’s listings were like that). I take that to mean that those percentages above are just a starting point – the real number might be a little higher than that.

Obviously, the lower price ranges are, as yet, more heavily represented than the higher price ranges among listings that note these conditions. There are a lot more of these properties under $600k than over right now. Carlsbad looks to be doing better right now than Oceanside and Vista.

For those properties that are short sales, (and assuming these pendings sell within their listing ranges) typical losses are in the $20k ranges, give or take. For those properties identified as foreclosures, the typical losses are in the $75k to $100k. There are some foreclosures where the loss might appear to be less than $30k, but there are also a few indicating to losses in excess of $150k. A lot of this variance seems to relate to the price ranges of these properties.

Note that when I say “losses”, I’m only talking about the hit on the loan principal, not the additional costs of foreclosure, carrying costs or marketing costs.

Almost all of the foreclosure listings seem to have 100% financing in the last 3 years, regardless of if they had sales in that time period or not.

All in all, there’s nothing among these numbers that come as a surprise – to me, anyway. I think we’re approaching the point where these listings will become prevalent enough to drive pricing, but I also think that point is yet a ways off.

[no_such_reality]

Bugs,

Any idea how the sales correspond to REO/NODs in those cities? You gave us what percentage was “must sell” inventory. I’m curious how that 94 sales in Vista for April compares to foreclosures in April in Vista?

Maybe I should rephrase that. I understand you gave us the percent of sales that were must sell. I’m wondering if we know how many foreclosures are in Vista and how many next foreclosures in Vista occurred in April. To get a read on ‘months of must sell inventory’ so to speak and to verify if the REOs are still stacking up faster than they are being cleared out. Make sense?

[no_such_reality]

Bugs,

Any idea how the sales correspond to REO/NODs in those cities? You gave us what percentage was “must sell” inventory. I’m curious how that 94 sales in Vista for April compares to foreclosures in April in Vista?

Maybe I should rephrase that. I understand you gave us the percent of sales that were must sell. I’m wondering if we know how many foreclosures are in Vista and how many next foreclosures in Vista occurred in April. To get a read on ‘months of must sell inventory’ so to speak and to verify if the REOs are still stacking up faster than they are being cleared out. Make sense?

[NotCranky]

Bugs, Since all these properties were listed on the MLS why are the foreclosures(REO’S) taking proportionally much bigger hits? Is most of it due to the poor conditions of the property? Those kind of loses will pay for a lot of window screens, sod and paint. If it is caused by lender desperation then wouldn’t that be a good near term downside indicator especially with so many more foreclosures in the pipeline? I am trying to support or refute my theory that a big chunk of appreciation/equity is coming out of the market or will be very soon.
Thanks

[NotCranky]

Bugs, Since all these properties were listed on the MLS why are the foreclosures(REO’S) taking proportionally much bigger hits? Is most of it due to the poor conditions of the property? Those kind of loses will pay for a lot of window screens, sod and paint. If it is caused by lender desperation then wouldn’t that be a good near term downside indicator especially with so many more foreclosures in the pipeline? I am trying to support or refute my theory that a big chunk of appreciation/equity is coming out of the market or will be very soon.
Thanks

[Bugs]

Actual foreclosures only account for about half of the must-sell figures I posted above. As I said, I’m pretty sure there are some more in there besides the ones that actually say “foreclosure” or other key words that I was looking for, but I’d have no way of knowing exactly how many without running each listing down. Obviously that’s more trouble that it’s worth to us if alls we’re looking for is a snapshot.

[Bugs]

Actual foreclosures only account for about half of the must-sell figures I posted above. As I said, I’m pretty sure there are some more in there besides the ones that actually say “foreclosure” or other key words that I was looking for, but I’d have no way of knowing exactly how many without running each listing down. Obviously that’s more trouble that it’s worth to us if alls we’re looking for is a snapshot.

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with you bugs. I have seen the old “corporate owned” used a few times. That is a definite bust.

Also I have seen listings that give no hint at all they are REO and I just happened to look at the tax roll to find out they are.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with you bugs. I have seen the old “corporate owned” used a few times. That is a definite bust.

Also I have seen listings that give no hint at all they are REO and I just happened to look at the tax roll to find out they are.

SD Realtor

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