Temecula/Murrieta true bottom or spring bounce? Opinions needed.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

This short term stuff is just not my bag,

I have always thought that the way to make real profits is cash flow properties of over the long term (10 years minimum),

I think you will find most people who have achieved real wealth have done it this way.

As far as T.V. bottom, I think that while maybe not the absolute bottom, it’s close enough as long as your time frame is at least 10 years.

[temeculaguy]

wow, pizza, appreciation, I hadn’t thought of that. None of my current formulas or theories take that into account. If you don’t mind the temporary layover, I’d give it at least until winter before jumping back in. From memory, you liked a little land with your home, in tracking the redfin price drops, the customs on land are the ones getting the biggest beating right now, they are about 70% of the price drops but only about 10% of the market, that tells me that the gentlemen ranches are finally catching up, it might be best to let that play out. It could be that the water is tight right now, that non income ranches are bleeding people dry or that they pencil out badly as rentals so they get no investor support.

On the other hand, you got into this situation because you outsmarted the market, you got a great deal when nobody was looking, there will be other windows where you are the lone buyer as we kick along the bottom for a while, find a month to month rental until interest rates spike, kids go back to school, the rain starts, the buyers fade away for a bit and then take another bite at the apple. Personally, I couldn’t muster the energy to move again. I may live in this house till I die, for no reason other than my washer and dryer is on the second floor and I am not moving those things again, ever!!

[temeculaguy]

wow, pizza, appreciation, I hadn’t thought of that. None of my current formulas or theories take that into account. If you don’t mind the temporary layover, I’d give it at least until winter before jumping back in. From memory, you liked a little land with your home, in tracking the redfin price drops, the customs on land are the ones getting the biggest beating right now, they are about 70% of the price drops but only about 10% of the market, that tells me that the gentlemen ranches are finally catching up, it might be best to let that play out. It could be that the water is tight right now, that non income ranches are bleeding people dry or that they pencil out badly as rentals so they get no investor support.

On the other hand, you got into this situation because you outsmarted the market, you got a great deal when nobody was looking, there will be other windows where you are the lone buyer as we kick along the bottom for a while, find a month to month rental until interest rates spike, kids go back to school, the rain starts, the buyers fade away for a bit and then take another bite at the apple. Personally, I couldn’t muster the energy to move again. I may live in this house till I die, for no reason other than my washer and dryer is on the second floor and I am not moving those things again, ever!!

[temeculaguy]

wow, pizza, appreciation, I hadn’t thought of that. None of my current formulas or theories take that into account. If you don’t mind the temporary layover, I’d give it at least until winter before jumping back in. From memory, you liked a little land with your home, in tracking the redfin price drops, the customs on land are the ones getting the biggest beating right now, they are about 70% of the price drops but only about 10% of the market, that tells me that the gentlemen ranches are finally catching up, it might be best to let that play out. It could be that the water is tight right now, that non income ranches are bleeding people dry or that they pencil out badly as rentals so they get no investor support.

On the other hand, you got into this situation because you outsmarted the market, you got a great deal when nobody was looking, there will be other windows where you are the lone buyer as we kick along the bottom for a while, find a month to month rental until interest rates spike, kids go back to school, the rain starts, the buyers fade away for a bit and then take another bite at the apple. Personally, I couldn’t muster the energy to move again. I may live in this house till I die, for no reason other than my washer and dryer is on the second floor and I am not moving those things again, ever!!

[temeculaguy]

wow, pizza, appreciation, I hadn’t thought of that. None of my current formulas or theories take that into account. If you don’t mind the temporary layover, I’d give it at least until winter before jumping back in. From memory, you liked a little land with your home, in tracking the redfin price drops, the customs on land are the ones getting the biggest beating right now, they are about 70% of the price drops but only about 10% of the market, that tells me that the gentlemen ranches are finally catching up, it might be best to let that play out. It could be that the water is tight right now, that non income ranches are bleeding people dry or that they pencil out badly as rentals so they get no investor support.

On the other hand, you got into this situation because you outsmarted the market, you got a great deal when nobody was looking, there will be other windows where you are the lone buyer as we kick along the bottom for a while, find a month to month rental until interest rates spike, kids go back to school, the rain starts, the buyers fade away for a bit and then take another bite at the apple. Personally, I couldn’t muster the energy to move again. I may live in this house till I die, for no reason other than my washer and dryer is on the second floor and I am not moving those things again, ever!!

[temeculaguy]

wow, pizza, appreciation, I hadn’t thought of that. None of my current formulas or theories take that into account. If you don’t mind the temporary layover, I’d give it at least until winter before jumping back in. From memory, you liked a little land with your home, in tracking the redfin price drops, the customs on land are the ones getting the biggest beating right now, they are about 70% of the price drops but only about 10% of the market, that tells me that the gentlemen ranches are finally catching up, it might be best to let that play out. It could be that the water is tight right now, that non income ranches are bleeding people dry or that they pencil out badly as rentals so they get no investor support.

On the other hand, you got into this situation because you outsmarted the market, you got a great deal when nobody was looking, there will be other windows where you are the lone buyer as we kick along the bottom for a while, find a month to month rental until interest rates spike, kids go back to school, the rain starts, the buyers fade away for a bit and then take another bite at the apple. Personally, I couldn’t muster the energy to move again. I may live in this house till I die, for no reason other than my washer and dryer is on the second floor and I am not moving those things again, ever!!

[pizzaman]

Thanks all for weighing in. For whats its worth, the small amount of money I’m going to make on this I made when I bought. Could have flipped it right away at +100k now 9 months later its +70k and that’s after about 30k of improvements. Bottom line maybe 10k to me after all costs. Too little money for all the work but buy selling I can put myself in a position to pick something up later this year when hopefully inventory has picked back up and nobody’s buying. Maybe this time if I can buy under market the market won’t move back to me.

I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

TG- I’m with you on the moving thing but at least I’m coming out of single story and can pretty much guarantee I’ll only look at the same as far as rent/purchase. Also I’m reconsidering whether owning land is all its cracked up to be. Although its nice to look at, I found out that acreage costs a lot to maintain in both time and money. I’ve concluded that to own land you have to be rich, retired or retarded and I’m not either of the first two. I think this time I’ll be looking more into the 1/3 to 1/2 acre range.

[pizzaman]

Thanks all for weighing in. For whats its worth, the small amount of money I’m going to make on this I made when I bought. Could have flipped it right away at +100k now 9 months later its +70k and that’s after about 30k of improvements. Bottom line maybe 10k to me after all costs. Too little money for all the work but buy selling I can put myself in a position to pick something up later this year when hopefully inventory has picked back up and nobody’s buying. Maybe this time if I can buy under market the market won’t move back to me.

I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

TG- I’m with you on the moving thing but at least I’m coming out of single story and can pretty much guarantee I’ll only look at the same as far as rent/purchase. Also I’m reconsidering whether owning land is all its cracked up to be. Although its nice to look at, I found out that acreage costs a lot to maintain in both time and money. I’ve concluded that to own land you have to be rich, retired or retarded and I’m not either of the first two. I think this time I’ll be looking more into the 1/3 to 1/2 acre range.

[pizzaman]

Thanks all for weighing in. For whats its worth, the small amount of money I’m going to make on this I made when I bought. Could have flipped it right away at +100k now 9 months later its +70k and that’s after about 30k of improvements. Bottom line maybe 10k to me after all costs. Too little money for all the work but buy selling I can put myself in a position to pick something up later this year when hopefully inventory has picked back up and nobody’s buying. Maybe this time if I can buy under market the market won’t move back to me.

I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

TG- I’m with you on the moving thing but at least I’m coming out of single story and can pretty much guarantee I’ll only look at the same as far as rent/purchase. Also I’m reconsidering whether owning land is all its cracked up to be. Although its nice to look at, I found out that acreage costs a lot to maintain in both time and money. I’ve concluded that to own land you have to be rich, retired or retarded and I’m not either of the first two. I think this time I’ll be looking more into the 1/3 to 1/2 acre range.

[pizzaman]

Thanks all for weighing in. For whats its worth, the small amount of money I’m going to make on this I made when I bought. Could have flipped it right away at +100k now 9 months later its +70k and that’s after about 30k of improvements. Bottom line maybe 10k to me after all costs. Too little money for all the work but buy selling I can put myself in a position to pick something up later this year when hopefully inventory has picked back up and nobody’s buying. Maybe this time if I can buy under market the market won’t move back to me.

I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

TG- I’m with you on the moving thing but at least I’m coming out of single story and can pretty much guarantee I’ll only look at the same as far as rent/purchase. Also I’m reconsidering whether owning land is all its cracked up to be. Although its nice to look at, I found out that acreage costs a lot to maintain in both time and money. I’ve concluded that to own land you have to be rich, retired or retarded and I’m not either of the first two. I think this time I’ll be looking more into the 1/3 to 1/2 acre range.

[pizzaman]

Thanks all for weighing in. For whats its worth, the small amount of money I’m going to make on this I made when I bought. Could have flipped it right away at +100k now 9 months later its +70k and that’s after about 30k of improvements. Bottom line maybe 10k to me after all costs. Too little money for all the work but buy selling I can put myself in a position to pick something up later this year when hopefully inventory has picked back up and nobody’s buying. Maybe this time if I can buy under market the market won’t move back to me.

I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

TG- I’m with you on the moving thing but at least I’m coming out of single story and can pretty much guarantee I’ll only look at the same as far as rent/purchase. Also I’m reconsidering whether owning land is all its cracked up to be. Although its nice to look at, I found out that acreage costs a lot to maintain in both time and money. I’ve concluded that to own land you have to be rich, retired or retarded and I’m not either of the first two. I think this time I’ll be looking more into the 1/3 to 1/2 acre range.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=pizzaman]
I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

[/quote]

I think that a good part of this so called fathom or shadow inventory is at least in the process of attempting loan modification, whether this will work or not is up for debate at this point but this should make for an interesting dynamic none the less.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=pizzaman]
I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

[/quote]

I think that a good part of this so called fathom or shadow inventory is at least in the process of attempting loan modification, whether this will work or not is up for debate at this point but this should make for an interesting dynamic none the less.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=pizzaman]
I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

[/quote]

I think that a good part of this so called fathom or shadow inventory is at least in the process of attempting loan modification, whether this will work or not is up for debate at this point but this should make for an interesting dynamic none the less.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=pizzaman]
I am having trouble understanding where all the inventory is. Right now in zip 92562 its off over 50% from where it was last year. I understand the concept of shadow inventory but from a practical stand point , at least in the area I track in west Murrieta , I am not seeing houses go back to the bank and then not get listed. The ones I do know of that appear to be shadow inventory all seem to have a story to go with them. For example I have been in touch with one bank about a house that has been on their books for 16 months and it still is not for sale. This would appear to be shadow inventory but in reality they would like nothing more than to sell it. The problem is that as unlikely as this sounds they have been working all this time to evict the former owner who has thrown one legal maneuver after another at them. They have literally been in court for the last year plus. At any rate my plan will fail miserably if the inventory doesn’t start picking up.

[/quote]

I think that a good part of this so called fathom or shadow inventory is at least in the process of attempting loan modification, whether this will work or not is up for debate at this point but this should make for an interesting dynamic none the less.

[Author]

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