Temecula Horse properties

[cashflow]

Just was out there today as I moved my horse to a stable in the wine country. Heard from the barn people there that lots of racing related barns have shut down in the area. Also one of the local guys that’s more toward Hemet said that water costs are starting to be troublesome and the local water company is doing away with some subsidy that you’d get to give city water to your animals….water costs keep going up and on a big property that is not a good thing. Just something to consider.

From a personal note, we were also looking in wine country, but found our horse property in Temecula within the city boundaries. Personally didn’t like the idea of being too far from everything, especially the freeway for commuting. We just bought and although I think we might see a bit more price adjustment down, I don’t think it’s that much more. If you see something that you love, that’s almost all that you want and in a certain range you set, I would go for it! Best wishes.

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[quote=tlefort]On a general note, as far as picking a bottom. No one, and I mean NO ONE knows where the actual botom is until we are all looking back years from now. All we have is data and statistics. ”

It makes sense to me that when it costs more to build a house – just a house, no land – than it does to buy an existing property with a house on it then we are at the bottom. The land my house is sitting on is effectively worthless right now. Construction costs remain relatively the same while land prices fluctuate wildly and what fool is buying land right now?

A 4-acre property with a killer view and a 2005 manufactered home in Aguanga just went for 85,000. The home itself probably cost 120,000. Can’t get much more bottom than that!

[[email protected]]

[quote=tlefort]On a general note, as far as picking a bottom. No one, and I mean NO ONE knows where the actual botom is until we are all looking back years from now. All we have is data and statistics. ”

It makes sense to me that when it costs more to build a house – just a house, no land – than it does to buy an existing property with a house on it then we are at the bottom. The land my house is sitting on is effectively worthless right now. Construction costs remain relatively the same while land prices fluctuate wildly and what fool is buying land right now?

A 4-acre property with a killer view and a 2005 manufactered home in Aguanga just went for 85,000. The home itself probably cost 120,000. Can’t get much more bottom than that!

[[email protected]]

[quote=tlefort]On a general note, as far as picking a bottom. No one, and I mean NO ONE knows where the actual botom is until we are all looking back years from now. All we have is data and statistics. ”

It makes sense to me that when it costs more to build a house – just a house, no land – than it does to buy an existing property with a house on it then we are at the bottom. The land my house is sitting on is effectively worthless right now. Construction costs remain relatively the same while land prices fluctuate wildly and what fool is buying land right now?

A 4-acre property with a killer view and a 2005 manufactered home in Aguanga just went for 85,000. The home itself probably cost 120,000. Can’t get much more bottom than that!

[[email protected]]

[quote=tlefort]On a general note, as far as picking a bottom. No one, and I mean NO ONE knows where the actual botom is until we are all looking back years from now. All we have is data and statistics. ”

It makes sense to me that when it costs more to build a house – just a house, no land – than it does to buy an existing property with a house on it then we are at the bottom. The land my house is sitting on is effectively worthless right now. Construction costs remain relatively the same while land prices fluctuate wildly and what fool is buying land right now?

A 4-acre property with a killer view and a 2005 manufactered home in Aguanga just went for 85,000. The home itself probably cost 120,000. Can’t get much more bottom than that!

[[email protected]]

[quote=tlefort]On a general note, as far as picking a bottom. No one, and I mean NO ONE knows where the actual botom is until we are all looking back years from now. All we have is data and statistics. ”

It makes sense to me that when it costs more to build a house – just a house, no land – than it does to buy an existing property with a house on it then we are at the bottom. The land my house is sitting on is effectively worthless right now. Construction costs remain relatively the same while land prices fluctuate wildly and what fool is buying land right now?

A 4-acre property with a killer view and a 2005 manufactered home in Aguanga just went for 85,000. The home itself probably cost 120,000. Can’t get much more bottom than that!

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[[email protected]]

Interesting:
“Based on past results, I think I’d rather put my faith in Professor Robert Shiller, who called both the tech bubble and the housing bubble. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices have dropped between 25% and 30% since the mid-2006 peak.

According to the Case-Shiller Futures Index — which has performed better than a Jim Cramer appearance on The Daily Show — the bottom of the housing market will occur in late 2010, with further declines of 5% to 25% in major markets.

How can anyone in their right mind say that housing has bottomed, when the supply of new homes is at an all-time high (13 months) and the supply of existing homes is at 10 months? Furthermore, there will be 2.1 million foreclosures in 2009 versus 1.7 million in 2008, and 7 to 8 million more people will lose their jobs in 2009. Housing prices will complete their trip back to 2000 levels.”

[[email protected]]

Interesting:
“Based on past results, I think I’d rather put my faith in Professor Robert Shiller, who called both the tech bubble and the housing bubble. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices have dropped between 25% and 30% since the mid-2006 peak.

According to the Case-Shiller Futures Index — which has performed better than a Jim Cramer appearance on The Daily Show — the bottom of the housing market will occur in late 2010, with further declines of 5% to 25% in major markets.

How can anyone in their right mind say that housing has bottomed, when the supply of new homes is at an all-time high (13 months) and the supply of existing homes is at 10 months? Furthermore, there will be 2.1 million foreclosures in 2009 versus 1.7 million in 2008, and 7 to 8 million more people will lose their jobs in 2009. Housing prices will complete their trip back to 2000 levels.”

[[email protected]]

Interesting:
“Based on past results, I think I’d rather put my faith in Professor Robert Shiller, who called both the tech bubble and the housing bubble. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices have dropped between 25% and 30% since the mid-2006 peak.

According to the Case-Shiller Futures Index — which has performed better than a Jim Cramer appearance on The Daily Show — the bottom of the housing market will occur in late 2010, with further declines of 5% to 25% in major markets.

How can anyone in their right mind say that housing has bottomed, when the supply of new homes is at an all-time high (13 months) and the supply of existing homes is at 10 months? Furthermore, there will be 2.1 million foreclosures in 2009 versus 1.7 million in 2008, and 7 to 8 million more people will lose their jobs in 2009. Housing prices will complete their trip back to 2000 levels.”

[[email protected]]

Interesting:
“Based on past results, I think I’d rather put my faith in Professor Robert Shiller, who called both the tech bubble and the housing bubble. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices have dropped between 25% and 30% since the mid-2006 peak.

According to the Case-Shiller Futures Index — which has performed better than a Jim Cramer appearance on The Daily Show — the bottom of the housing market will occur in late 2010, with further declines of 5% to 25% in major markets.

How can anyone in their right mind say that housing has bottomed, when the supply of new homes is at an all-time high (13 months) and the supply of existing homes is at 10 months? Furthermore, there will be 2.1 million foreclosures in 2009 versus 1.7 million in 2008, and 7 to 8 million more people will lose their jobs in 2009. Housing prices will complete their trip back to 2000 levels.”

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