taking the plunge, now give it to me straight

[JerseyGrl]

Toots

Sounds like he works at the nearby air force base. It would be insane to commute to Bay or even Sacramento, from Vacaville.

[meadandale]

“Hemet, redux”

I hear that.

I remember when I used to drive up and down the 15 for work in the early 90’s and saw signs every mile from temecula north to corona for brand new 4 and 5 bedroom houses starting in the mid to high 100’s.

Just like Temecula and the rest of the IE still has a way to fall, I think that areas like vacaville, stockton and modesto that served as the bedroom communities for the bay area, while down significantly from peak, still have a ways to go.

My gut feeling is that you are going to see these former farmland mcmansions in the 300’s in the next few years, especially with gas having more than doubled since the start of the boom and heading nowhere but up in the near term.

[meadandale]

“Hemet, redux”

I hear that.

I remember when I used to drive up and down the 15 for work in the early 90’s and saw signs every mile from temecula north to corona for brand new 4 and 5 bedroom houses starting in the mid to high 100’s.

Just like Temecula and the rest of the IE still has a way to fall, I think that areas like vacaville, stockton and modesto that served as the bedroom communities for the bay area, while down significantly from peak, still have a ways to go.

My gut feeling is that you are going to see these former farmland mcmansions in the 300’s in the next few years, especially with gas having more than doubled since the start of the boom and heading nowhere but up in the near term.

[meadandale]

“Hemet, redux”

I hear that.

I remember when I used to drive up and down the 15 for work in the early 90’s and saw signs every mile from temecula north to corona for brand new 4 and 5 bedroom houses starting in the mid to high 100’s.

Just like Temecula and the rest of the IE still has a way to fall, I think that areas like vacaville, stockton and modesto that served as the bedroom communities for the bay area, while down significantly from peak, still have a ways to go.

My gut feeling is that you are going to see these former farmland mcmansions in the 300’s in the next few years, especially with gas having more than doubled since the start of the boom and heading nowhere but up in the near term.

[meadandale]

“Hemet, redux”

I hear that.

I remember when I used to drive up and down the 15 for work in the early 90’s and saw signs every mile from temecula north to corona for brand new 4 and 5 bedroom houses starting in the mid to high 100’s.

Just like Temecula and the rest of the IE still has a way to fall, I think that areas like vacaville, stockton and modesto that served as the bedroom communities for the bay area, while down significantly from peak, still have a ways to go.

My gut feeling is that you are going to see these former farmland mcmansions in the 300’s in the next few years, especially with gas having more than doubled since the start of the boom and heading nowhere but up in the near term.

[meadandale]

“Hemet, redux”

I hear that.

I remember when I used to drive up and down the 15 for work in the early 90’s and saw signs every mile from temecula north to corona for brand new 4 and 5 bedroom houses starting in the mid to high 100’s.

Just like Temecula and the rest of the IE still has a way to fall, I think that areas like vacaville, stockton and modesto that served as the bedroom communities for the bay area, while down significantly from peak, still have a ways to go.

My gut feeling is that you are going to see these former farmland mcmansions in the 300’s in the next few years, especially with gas having more than doubled since the start of the boom and heading nowhere but up in the near term.

[Disgruntled Patriot]

Half million anywhere, even SD, sounds crazy to me but it is what it is in Vacaville. Commute to the Bay, but only 4 times per month and I drive a CNG car (38 mpg at $2 per gallon).

You make a great point though. I have many neighbors near the home I rent that slug it out 5 days a week on 80. Imagine that must help tip the scales toward walking away as prices continue to slide. I’m comfortable locking into a 30yr commitment because it would make a break even rental at this point. We want to keep our options open so when higher end homes in the Bay area become reasonable we can make the jump.

My concern is that as the market begins its Keynesian death spiral, rent prices may also collapse. I was born with a terrible disorder that deprives me of sleep when I fail to meet contracted obligations. So our fear going into this is the possibility of having to cover a significant rent spread down the road, long term.

I know it is going to get ugly, it’s just how ugly I can’t get a fix on. There are immense downward price pressures in this area that I’m seeing real time. The home I rent was purchased by my landlord, a 20 something 5-year immigrant from down south, on a no-doc neg-am a few years ago. She has been in default for 5 months (banks are backlogged up here) on this and the other 4 mcmansions she bought. During the run up, some creative refis and HELOC’s built her a nice little nest egg she used to buy a couple gated homes south of the border, along with 2 blinged out SUV’s and more Ethan Allen than you can stuff into a 4,000sf box.

Scary thing is there are many like her. Not just in central CA but in numerous burbs across the nation. Even scarier, the balance sheets of our nations largest banks have these investors on the plus side of their balance sheets. If the scenario runs a natural course, we’re likely facing an economic collapse. The question is, will the gubmint save us. If helicopter and his cronies stoke the furnace high enough, we could miss the boat.

[Disgruntled Patriot]

Half million anywhere, even SD, sounds crazy to me but it is what it is in Vacaville. Commute to the Bay, but only 4 times per month and I drive a CNG car (38 mpg at $2 per gallon).

You make a great point though. I have many neighbors near the home I rent that slug it out 5 days a week on 80. Imagine that must help tip the scales toward walking away as prices continue to slide. I’m comfortable locking into a 30yr commitment because it would make a break even rental at this point. We want to keep our options open so when higher end homes in the Bay area become reasonable we can make the jump.

My concern is that as the market begins its Keynesian death spiral, rent prices may also collapse. I was born with a terrible disorder that deprives me of sleep when I fail to meet contracted obligations. So our fear going into this is the possibility of having to cover a significant rent spread down the road, long term.

I know it is going to get ugly, it’s just how ugly I can’t get a fix on. There are immense downward price pressures in this area that I’m seeing real time. The home I rent was purchased by my landlord, a 20 something 5-year immigrant from down south, on a no-doc neg-am a few years ago. She has been in default for 5 months (banks are backlogged up here) on this and the other 4 mcmansions she bought. During the run up, some creative refis and HELOC’s built her a nice little nest egg she used to buy a couple gated homes south of the border, along with 2 blinged out SUV’s and more Ethan Allen than you can stuff into a 4,000sf box.

Scary thing is there are many like her. Not just in central CA but in numerous burbs across the nation. Even scarier, the balance sheets of our nations largest banks have these investors on the plus side of their balance sheets. If the scenario runs a natural course, we’re likely facing an economic collapse. The question is, will the gubmint save us. If helicopter and his cronies stoke the furnace high enough, we could miss the boat.

[Disgruntled Patriot]

Half million anywhere, even SD, sounds crazy to me but it is what it is in Vacaville. Commute to the Bay, but only 4 times per month and I drive a CNG car (38 mpg at $2 per gallon).

You make a great point though. I have many neighbors near the home I rent that slug it out 5 days a week on 80. Imagine that must help tip the scales toward walking away as prices continue to slide. I’m comfortable locking into a 30yr commitment because it would make a break even rental at this point. We want to keep our options open so when higher end homes in the Bay area become reasonable we can make the jump.

My concern is that as the market begins its Keynesian death spiral, rent prices may also collapse. I was born with a terrible disorder that deprives me of sleep when I fail to meet contracted obligations. So our fear going into this is the possibility of having to cover a significant rent spread down the road, long term.

I know it is going to get ugly, it’s just how ugly I can’t get a fix on. There are immense downward price pressures in this area that I’m seeing real time. The home I rent was purchased by my landlord, a 20 something 5-year immigrant from down south, on a no-doc neg-am a few years ago. She has been in default for 5 months (banks are backlogged up here) on this and the other 4 mcmansions she bought. During the run up, some creative refis and HELOC’s built her a nice little nest egg she used to buy a couple gated homes south of the border, along with 2 blinged out SUV’s and more Ethan Allen than you can stuff into a 4,000sf box.

Scary thing is there are many like her. Not just in central CA but in numerous burbs across the nation. Even scarier, the balance sheets of our nations largest banks have these investors on the plus side of their balance sheets. If the scenario runs a natural course, we’re likely facing an economic collapse. The question is, will the gubmint save us. If helicopter and his cronies stoke the furnace high enough, we could miss the boat.

[Disgruntled Patriot]

Half million anywhere, even SD, sounds crazy to me but it is what it is in Vacaville. Commute to the Bay, but only 4 times per month and I drive a CNG car (38 mpg at $2 per gallon).

You make a great point though. I have many neighbors near the home I rent that slug it out 5 days a week on 80. Imagine that must help tip the scales toward walking away as prices continue to slide. I’m comfortable locking into a 30yr commitment because it would make a break even rental at this point. We want to keep our options open so when higher end homes in the Bay area become reasonable we can make the jump.

My concern is that as the market begins its Keynesian death spiral, rent prices may also collapse. I was born with a terrible disorder that deprives me of sleep when I fail to meet contracted obligations. So our fear going into this is the possibility of having to cover a significant rent spread down the road, long term.

I know it is going to get ugly, it’s just how ugly I can’t get a fix on. There are immense downward price pressures in this area that I’m seeing real time. The home I rent was purchased by my landlord, a 20 something 5-year immigrant from down south, on a no-doc neg-am a few years ago. She has been in default for 5 months (banks are backlogged up here) on this and the other 4 mcmansions she bought. During the run up, some creative refis and HELOC’s built her a nice little nest egg she used to buy a couple gated homes south of the border, along with 2 blinged out SUV’s and more Ethan Allen than you can stuff into a 4,000sf box.

Scary thing is there are many like her. Not just in central CA but in numerous burbs across the nation. Even scarier, the balance sheets of our nations largest banks have these investors on the plus side of their balance sheets. If the scenario runs a natural course, we’re likely facing an economic collapse. The question is, will the gubmint save us. If helicopter and his cronies stoke the furnace high enough, we could miss the boat.

[Disgruntled Patriot]

Half million anywhere, even SD, sounds crazy to me but it is what it is in Vacaville. Commute to the Bay, but only 4 times per month and I drive a CNG car (38 mpg at $2 per gallon).

You make a great point though. I have many neighbors near the home I rent that slug it out 5 days a week on 80. Imagine that must help tip the scales toward walking away as prices continue to slide. I’m comfortable locking into a 30yr commitment because it would make a break even rental at this point. We want to keep our options open so when higher end homes in the Bay area become reasonable we can make the jump.

My concern is that as the market begins its Keynesian death spiral, rent prices may also collapse. I was born with a terrible disorder that deprives me of sleep when I fail to meet contracted obligations. So our fear going into this is the possibility of having to cover a significant rent spread down the road, long term.

I know it is going to get ugly, it’s just how ugly I can’t get a fix on. There are immense downward price pressures in this area that I’m seeing real time. The home I rent was purchased by my landlord, a 20 something 5-year immigrant from down south, on a no-doc neg-am a few years ago. She has been in default for 5 months (banks are backlogged up here) on this and the other 4 mcmansions she bought. During the run up, some creative refis and HELOC’s built her a nice little nest egg she used to buy a couple gated homes south of the border, along with 2 blinged out SUV’s and more Ethan Allen than you can stuff into a 4,000sf box.

Scary thing is there are many like her. Not just in central CA but in numerous burbs across the nation. Even scarier, the balance sheets of our nations largest banks have these investors on the plus side of their balance sheets. If the scenario runs a natural course, we’re likely facing an economic collapse. The question is, will the gubmint save us. If helicopter and his cronies stoke the furnace high enough, we could miss the boat.

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[Author]

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