Sydney Australia – can anyone help?

[EconProf]

Syndey RE prices are currently falling fast, for at least three reasons that will continue to operate for some time: falling commodity prices (of which Aust. is a big supplier), falling tourism, and a strengthening dollar. Time is on your side…just wait a while.

[patientrenter]

EconProf,

The factors you quote behind a deflation of the Aussie housing bubble are not shared by all the other countries (like US, UK…) that went through recent housing bubbles roughly simultaneously, and are are experiencing roughly simultaneous deflations. Don’t you think there is a single explanation for all of them that is more important than the differentiating factors?

[patientrenter]

EconProf,

The factors you quote behind a deflation of the Aussie housing bubble are not shared by all the other countries (like US, UK…) that went through recent housing bubbles roughly simultaneously, and are are experiencing roughly simultaneous deflations. Don’t you think there is a single explanation for all of them that is more important than the differentiating factors?

[patientrenter]

EconProf,

The factors you quote behind a deflation of the Aussie housing bubble are not shared by all the other countries (like US, UK…) that went through recent housing bubbles roughly simultaneously, and are are experiencing roughly simultaneous deflations. Don’t you think there is a single explanation for all of them that is more important than the differentiating factors?

[patientrenter]

EconProf,

The factors you quote behind a deflation of the Aussie housing bubble are not shared by all the other countries (like US, UK…) that went through recent housing bubbles roughly simultaneously, and are are experiencing roughly simultaneous deflations. Don’t you think there is a single explanation for all of them that is more important than the differentiating factors?

[patientrenter]

EconProf,

The factors you quote behind a deflation of the Aussie housing bubble are not shared by all the other countries (like US, UK…) that went through recent housing bubbles roughly simultaneously, and are are experiencing roughly simultaneous deflations. Don’t you think there is a single explanation for all of them that is more important than the differentiating factors?

[barnaby33]

First of all Sydney has gone through a housing bubble it just started deflating earlier, and slower than the states. Most likely that has to do with the fact that the loans on offer weren’t quite as toxic. I meet lots of smug Aussies who think its different here. They are wrong.

Housing is still overpriced relative to what people can actually afford. Aussies have been playing the same game that Americans have with respect to housing and for just about as long. Immigration is continuing here in Sydney but from what little I know its a slow trickle, not a flood. Its not like the Australian govt lets lots of foreigners in willingly. (I’m here on a tourist visa)

Rents are exhorbitant here, but that doesn’t make buying a good idea when the jobs market is tanking in the sectors which produce high paying jobs, ie RE finance and to a lesser degree tech. A low interest rate is only good if you are going to hold for a long time.

In summation, there is a buble here as well, people are in denial, but they are coming around fast. They see whats happening in the states and they know that their economy is inextricably linked to ours.

I’d wait, but thats just me. I’m only here til december, then back to grossly overpriced, sunny, San Diego!

Josh

[barnaby33]

First of all Sydney has gone through a housing bubble it just started deflating earlier, and slower than the states. Most likely that has to do with the fact that the loans on offer weren’t quite as toxic. I meet lots of smug Aussies who think its different here. They are wrong.

Housing is still overpriced relative to what people can actually afford. Aussies have been playing the same game that Americans have with respect to housing and for just about as long. Immigration is continuing here in Sydney but from what little I know its a slow trickle, not a flood. Its not like the Australian govt lets lots of foreigners in willingly. (I’m here on a tourist visa)

Rents are exhorbitant here, but that doesn’t make buying a good idea when the jobs market is tanking in the sectors which produce high paying jobs, ie RE finance and to a lesser degree tech. A low interest rate is only good if you are going to hold for a long time.

In summation, there is a buble here as well, people are in denial, but they are coming around fast. They see whats happening in the states and they know that their economy is inextricably linked to ours.

I’d wait, but thats just me. I’m only here til december, then back to grossly overpriced, sunny, San Diego!

Josh

[barnaby33]

First of all Sydney has gone through a housing bubble it just started deflating earlier, and slower than the states. Most likely that has to do with the fact that the loans on offer weren’t quite as toxic. I meet lots of smug Aussies who think its different here. They are wrong.

Housing is still overpriced relative to what people can actually afford. Aussies have been playing the same game that Americans have with respect to housing and for just about as long. Immigration is continuing here in Sydney but from what little I know its a slow trickle, not a flood. Its not like the Australian govt lets lots of foreigners in willingly. (I’m here on a tourist visa)

Rents are exhorbitant here, but that doesn’t make buying a good idea when the jobs market is tanking in the sectors which produce high paying jobs, ie RE finance and to a lesser degree tech. A low interest rate is only good if you are going to hold for a long time.

In summation, there is a buble here as well, people are in denial, but they are coming around fast. They see whats happening in the states and they know that their economy is inextricably linked to ours.

I’d wait, but thats just me. I’m only here til december, then back to grossly overpriced, sunny, San Diego!

Josh

[barnaby33]

First of all Sydney has gone through a housing bubble it just started deflating earlier, and slower than the states. Most likely that has to do with the fact that the loans on offer weren’t quite as toxic. I meet lots of smug Aussies who think its different here. They are wrong.

Housing is still overpriced relative to what people can actually afford. Aussies have been playing the same game that Americans have with respect to housing and for just about as long. Immigration is continuing here in Sydney but from what little I know its a slow trickle, not a flood. Its not like the Australian govt lets lots of foreigners in willingly. (I’m here on a tourist visa)

Rents are exhorbitant here, but that doesn’t make buying a good idea when the jobs market is tanking in the sectors which produce high paying jobs, ie RE finance and to a lesser degree tech. A low interest rate is only good if you are going to hold for a long time.

In summation, there is a buble here as well, people are in denial, but they are coming around fast. They see whats happening in the states and they know that their economy is inextricably linked to ours.

I’d wait, but thats just me. I’m only here til december, then back to grossly overpriced, sunny, San Diego!

Josh

[barnaby33]

First of all Sydney has gone through a housing bubble it just started deflating earlier, and slower than the states. Most likely that has to do with the fact that the loans on offer weren’t quite as toxic. I meet lots of smug Aussies who think its different here. They are wrong.

Housing is still overpriced relative to what people can actually afford. Aussies have been playing the same game that Americans have with respect to housing and for just about as long. Immigration is continuing here in Sydney but from what little I know its a slow trickle, not a flood. Its not like the Australian govt lets lots of foreigners in willingly. (I’m here on a tourist visa)

Rents are exhorbitant here, but that doesn’t make buying a good idea when the jobs market is tanking in the sectors which produce high paying jobs, ie RE finance and to a lesser degree tech. A low interest rate is only good if you are going to hold for a long time.

In summation, there is a buble here as well, people are in denial, but they are coming around fast. They see whats happening in the states and they know that their economy is inextricably linked to ours.

I’d wait, but thats just me. I’m only here til december, then back to grossly overpriced, sunny, San Diego!

Josh

[EconProf]

PatientRenter: Yes, there was a common thread to all the bubble housing markets in different countries, and that was the sheer, unreasoning buying mentality that marks a runup and eventually a top. As prices become unconnected to incomes and rents and buyers look only to recent price trends to justify their purchase, the tipping point is reached and the collapse commences.

Different factors can fuel the upsurge. For Australia it was clearly their mineral resources (& proximity to Asian buyers thereof), trusted capitalistic government, tourism, etc. For Britain & Ireland it may have been immigration, land shortages, and a high-cost-to-build environment, among other factors. For all countries, it was the carry-trade and resulting cheap borrowing atmosphere.

[EconProf]

PatientRenter: Yes, there was a common thread to all the bubble housing markets in different countries, and that was the sheer, unreasoning buying mentality that marks a runup and eventually a top. As prices become unconnected to incomes and rents and buyers look only to recent price trends to justify their purchase, the tipping point is reached and the collapse commences.

Different factors can fuel the upsurge. For Australia it was clearly their mineral resources (& proximity to Asian buyers thereof), trusted capitalistic government, tourism, etc. For Britain & Ireland it may have been immigration, land shortages, and a high-cost-to-build environment, among other factors. For all countries, it was the carry-trade and resulting cheap borrowing atmosphere.

[EconProf]

PatientRenter: Yes, there was a common thread to all the bubble housing markets in different countries, and that was the sheer, unreasoning buying mentality that marks a runup and eventually a top. As prices become unconnected to incomes and rents and buyers look only to recent price trends to justify their purchase, the tipping point is reached and the collapse commences.

Different factors can fuel the upsurge. For Australia it was clearly their mineral resources (& proximity to Asian buyers thereof), trusted capitalistic government, tourism, etc. For Britain & Ireland it may have been immigration, land shortages, and a high-cost-to-build environment, among other factors. For all countries, it was the carry-trade and resulting cheap borrowing atmosphere.

[EconProf]

PatientRenter: Yes, there was a common thread to all the bubble housing markets in different countries, and that was the sheer, unreasoning buying mentality that marks a runup and eventually a top. As prices become unconnected to incomes and rents and buyers look only to recent price trends to justify their purchase, the tipping point is reached and the collapse commences.

Different factors can fuel the upsurge. For Australia it was clearly their mineral resources (& proximity to Asian buyers thereof), trusted capitalistic government, tourism, etc. For Britain & Ireland it may have been immigration, land shortages, and a high-cost-to-build environment, among other factors. For all countries, it was the carry-trade and resulting cheap borrowing atmosphere.

[Author]

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