Survey: At what price will YOU most likely buy?

[patientrenter]

At what % of today’s prices are YOU most likely to actually make a purchase?

Why do this?
If we conducted a little survey here, then we’d have a real data point in predicting the behavior of future buyers. We are probably relatively conservative compared to most potential buyers, so the results of the survey would be at the low end of the various predictable price support points, but at least it would be one objective measure of possible future buyer behavior in a sea of opinion.

How can anyone predict what price they’ll buy at?
I know most people don’t want to commit now to buying in the future at a specific price. Almost everyone would prefer to buy at the bottom of the market, whatever that is. And almost everyone would like to have more information to help predict that market bottom. Nice, but at some point you have to just decide whether to buy or not, even though you aren’t sure if the market has hit bottom. There’s never enough information for a perfect decision. I am interested in your best estimate today, with the imperfect information you have now, of what your most likely buying price will be, expressed as a % of today’s prices for the types of property you think you’ll end up buying.

What goes into the survey?
Comments are very welcome, but getting one number per person, expressed as a %, is the purpose of the question.

At what price will I most likely buy?
65%. I could see myself pulling the trigger at 350K for places that today are going for mid-500’s and that I could live in. It’s still way more than I could have paid in 1996, and way less house (condo, actually) than I want, but I want to lock in my future housing costs, and I could probably (barely) afford 350K. If the price was much higher, I probably couldn’t bring myself to fork it out, unless I knew for certain it was a market bottom, and I am never going to know that until it’s too late.

I’ll probably just let any results accumulate in the thread, but if there’s a strong demand, I’ll tabulate them.

patient renter in OC

[BuyerWillEPB]

I will buy when prices revert back to pre-bubble level.

That would be early 2003 prices at a minimum. In nominal terms that puts the price at about $300K in the average neighborhoods I’m watching (Clairemont, Linda Vista, Serra Mesa etc.).

And/Or

The other method – I will buy whenever I can purchase for 3 times my annual household income.

[BuyerWillEPB]

I will buy when prices revert back to pre-bubble level.

That would be early 2003 prices at a minimum. In nominal terms that puts the price at about $300K in the average neighborhoods I’m watching (Clairemont, Linda Vista, Serra Mesa etc.).

And/Or

The other method – I will buy whenever I can purchase for 3 times my annual household income.

[patientrenter]

BuyerWEPB,

Thanks for that. What % of current prices does that translate to?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

BuyerWEPB,

Thanks for that. What % of current prices does that translate to?

Patient renter in OC

[temeculaguy]

25% decline from today for new, probably 30-35% for resale since the new construction has already been discounted more in my area, this would represent a 50% drop from peak overall for both. Specifically I am looking at a 2100 sq ft new detached alley home that is list priced at 341k today with granite,ss appliances, etc. Comparable style resales are about 370-400k with an occasional thrashed repo lower. If that gets between 250 and 300 then I will be inclined to pull the trigger. My reasons are not about timing the market but about fundamentals. Rent today would be 1700-2000 for the same property, the loan would be only 2x my income. With 50k down a 250k 30 yr fixed mortgage it is about $1550 P&I. Taxes, insurance and hoa are roughly cancelled out by the income tax deduction, so then it makes sense to me. Of course it would be nice to be closer to the 250 than the 300 but that is where it gets tempting.

[temeculaguy]

25% decline from today for new, probably 30-35% for resale since the new construction has already been discounted more in my area, this would represent a 50% drop from peak overall for both. Specifically I am looking at a 2100 sq ft new detached alley home that is list priced at 341k today with granite,ss appliances, etc. Comparable style resales are about 370-400k with an occasional thrashed repo lower. If that gets between 250 and 300 then I will be inclined to pull the trigger. My reasons are not about timing the market but about fundamentals. Rent today would be 1700-2000 for the same property, the loan would be only 2x my income. With 50k down a 250k 30 yr fixed mortgage it is about $1550 P&I. Taxes, insurance and hoa are roughly cancelled out by the income tax deduction, so then it makes sense to me. Of course it would be nice to be closer to the 250 than the 300 but that is where it gets tempting.

[stansd]

75% 2 years from now (70% with inflation). I think there is some permanent change to the market due to new financing vehicles avaiable and the “super star city” phenomenon. Couple that together with the behavioral effects of the market dropping further, and I think that’s as low as it will go without a country-wide depression.

That would put an 1,800 3-4BR house at around 400K, which I think is the sweet spot given the demographics of the area and this country’s crazy infatuation with the “American Dream.”

Stan

[stansd]

75% 2 years from now (70% with inflation). I think there is some permanent change to the market due to new financing vehicles avaiable and the “super star city” phenomenon. Couple that together with the behavioral effects of the market dropping further, and I think that’s as low as it will go without a country-wide depression.

That would put an 1,800 3-4BR house at around 400K, which I think is the sweet spot given the demographics of the area and this country’s crazy infatuation with the “American Dream.”

Stan

[PD]

If I find the right property, 20% below today’s prices would temp me (in Coronado). It would have to be a house that would work for us for at least 10 years.

[PD]

If I find the right property, 20% below today’s prices would temp me (in Coronado). It would have to be a house that would work for us for at least 10 years.

[golfproz]

I’ve got my eye on some new homes currently selling in the Mid 800s. They have a couple in the last phase that they have been trying to unload for several months at 75K off with no luck ( one since Jan). I’de be willing to pull the trigger in the mid 500s but any more than that I’ll be looking elsewhere or staying put in my started shack that I only owe 70K on. Homes this size in this area were selling in the high 400s in early 2003, so I don’t think mid 500s is out of the question. I’m patient and can certainly afford to wait.

[golfproz]

I’ve got my eye on some new homes currently selling in the Mid 800s. They have a couple in the last phase that they have been trying to unload for several months at 75K off with no luck ( one since Jan). I’de be willing to pull the trigger in the mid 500s but any more than that I’ll be looking elsewhere or staying put in my started shack that I only owe 70K on. Homes this size in this area were selling in the high 400s in early 2003, so I don’t think mid 500s is out of the question. I’m patient and can certainly afford to wait.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

20% – 30% I am looking in North County east of the 15 and I want a minimum of 2 acres. My budget is $450 max.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

20% – 30% I am looking in North County east of the 15 and I want a minimum of 2 acres. My budget is $450 max.

[Author]

Posts