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Home › Forums › Housing › Surprised — dollar hanging in there; metals down a bit

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  • January 26, 2008 at 10:39 PM #143642
    asragov
    Participant

    If (a big if) you are a believer in deflation, then the dollar should begin a long-term rise. The basic idea is that assets will fall so much in price that a dollar will go further (just not as many people will have any).

    January 27, 2008 at 5:32 PM #143573
    Chris Scoreboard Johnston
    Participant

    If you look at the recent rise in the price of gold and the corresponding rise in open interest, it is notable that most of that rise in open interest is comprised of speculators, with the commercials sharply reducing their long positions. This is not what bull markets are made of, it is only a matter of time before this market heads down. These momentum moves are tough to time in terms of fading them because they are completely emotion driven by non-professionals. However, when the large players are fading a move, the music will stop eventually, and probably very sharply.

    For those having long term positions, or those looking to establish them, I would not be a buyer here, you will get a decline to do so.

    January 27, 2008 at 5:32 PM #143812
    Chris Scoreboard Johnston
    Participant

    If you look at the recent rise in the price of gold and the corresponding rise in open interest, it is notable that most of that rise in open interest is comprised of speculators, with the commercials sharply reducing their long positions. This is not what bull markets are made of, it is only a matter of time before this market heads down. These momentum moves are tough to time in terms of fading them because they are completely emotion driven by non-professionals. However, when the large players are fading a move, the music will stop eventually, and probably very sharply.

    For those having long term positions, or those looking to establish them, I would not be a buyer here, you will get a decline to do so.

    January 27, 2008 at 5:32 PM #143819
    Chris Scoreboard Johnston
    Participant

    If you look at the recent rise in the price of gold and the corresponding rise in open interest, it is notable that most of that rise in open interest is comprised of speculators, with the commercials sharply reducing their long positions. This is not what bull markets are made of, it is only a matter of time before this market heads down. These momentum moves are tough to time in terms of fading them because they are completely emotion driven by non-professionals. However, when the large players are fading a move, the music will stop eventually, and probably very sharply.

    For those having long term positions, or those looking to establish them, I would not be a buyer here, you will get a decline to do so.

    January 27, 2008 at 5:32 PM #143845
    Chris Scoreboard Johnston
    Participant

    If you look at the recent rise in the price of gold and the corresponding rise in open interest, it is notable that most of that rise in open interest is comprised of speculators, with the commercials sharply reducing their long positions. This is not what bull markets are made of, it is only a matter of time before this market heads down. These momentum moves are tough to time in terms of fading them because they are completely emotion driven by non-professionals. However, when the large players are fading a move, the music will stop eventually, and probably very sharply.

    For those having long term positions, or those looking to establish them, I would not be a buyer here, you will get a decline to do so.

    January 27, 2008 at 5:32 PM #143911
    Chris Scoreboard Johnston
    Participant

    If you look at the recent rise in the price of gold and the corresponding rise in open interest, it is notable that most of that rise in open interest is comprised of speculators, with the commercials sharply reducing their long positions. This is not what bull markets are made of, it is only a matter of time before this market heads down. These momentum moves are tough to time in terms of fading them because they are completely emotion driven by non-professionals. However, when the large players are fading a move, the music will stop eventually, and probably very sharply.

    For those having long term positions, or those looking to establish them, I would not be a buyer here, you will get a decline to do so.

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