Sunny San Diego

[The-Shoveler]

We will most likely have to wait for stats to come in next year, but I would bet CA sees net inbound migration.

Anyway IMO.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]TX and ND etc… are having a really hard time economically these days,

Would not be too surprised to start seeing a lot of returning ex-Socal people.[/quote]

I think only the roughnecks are having a hard time. But that’s because they bought large SUVs and trucks, and spent large during the good years. They would’ve saved their money if they were fiscally conservative.

People in Austin, Dallas and Houston are doing fine especially if their houses are paid off.[/quote]I find if amazing the percentage of residents of the southwest region of the country (primarily the oil-producing states) who have primary residences which are paid off. I would take an educated guess here that it is >50% of homeowners almost everywhere (in both cities and rural areas).

Yes, for the most part, the residents’ values in this region are to have a paid-off home and a nice, large pickup for all their hauling needs (including dogs, lol) …. even 20 and 30-somethings 🙂

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
I would say TX is a lot like Vegas in that regard, few CA residents probably ever really wanted to move there in the first place.[/quote]

That’s because people want everything and can’t adjust to their circumstances. They want the best neighborhoods, the biggest houses, the nicest cars and so on.

It’s a 2 bedroom condo in San Diego or a 3000sf house in TX. Take your pick. The returnees would be miserable unless they suddenly make more money in CA. Unless you go hungry or lack shelter, the unhappiness comes from within.[/quote]FIH, those hundreds of thousands of Angelenos who relocated to LV in the past decade would have been much better off financially had they stayed back in their “home turf” of El Monte (or name your working-class/middle class SoCal city/community) and waited out the recession. Those LA County 1500 sf 1950’s-era homes situated on generous (often very generous) lots which they likely fled from have doubled and in some cases tripled in value since the depths of the recession in 2007-2009.

Even Compton is now being “gentrified” (albeit slowly) and is looking pretty good from recent photos. It is getting new public infrastructure, little by little.

Last year (on the way back home from one of my road trips) I got off I-15 in LV for about 45 mins, took a couple other newer hwys I’d never been on and looked around. I wasn’t that impressed. It’s not nicer than SoCal … not where people actually live (non-tourist communities). In the newer areas, the homes are every bit as close to one another as they are in newer developments within CA CFD’s.

Most of the areas I drove thru in LV and Henderson (except for the very well-established areas) were akin to driving on the moon. The newer neighborhoods the SoCal lower-income crowd apparently fled to are completely barren (nearly devoid of any vegetation at all). Yikes! It was wa-a-a-ay too dry for me.

[bearishgurl]

When young adult residents of TX/OK/AR decide to get married, their main goal in the first years of marriage is to pay off their home and their new truck (if they have a loan on it). Especially if parents helped them build or buy the home.

A LOT of young couples in this region have their homes paid off PRIOR to having kids or at the very latest, by the time their youngest kid reaches school age.

A paid-off first home is a very important goal to this demographic and they’ll work several jobs to do it, if necessary.

Having excessive debt is shunned and this value is hammered into them by both sets of parents from the get go (during their engagement).

And no, they don’t all buy/build mcmansions for their first homes straight out of college!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=The-Shoveler]We will most likely have to wait for stats to come in next year, but I would bet CA sees net inbound migration.

Anyway IMO.[/quote]

Yes, inbound from MX and China, mainly. The vast majority of the residents in the US “flyover country” are “comfortable.” It’s not worth it for them to try to move here. Many of them can afford to stay in a CA coastal 5-star hotel or timeshare for one week per year. Why bother to disrupt their comfortable lives (with plenty of parking space for toys and equipment) to move into a congested coastal area year-round?

[FlyerInHi]

BG, Vegas recovered better than San Diego, from the bottom. The operative words being “from the bottom”. Same goes for riverside and San Bernardino counties. The returns are wonderfu, if you had bought at the bottom.

I love the Strip in Vegas. The crowds of people and the excitement. MGM will start charging for parking because they can. Tourist traffic is up. They are talking about light rail along the strip and to the airport. I bet they will accomplish that before San Diego because they learned the lesson from the crash and they need to diversify the economy. I like it here. A lot of the news articles you read are based on comparison to the peak. It’s a different story compared to the bottom. Happiness and satisfaction is all about perspective.

Anyway, I’m lucky to have choices. I like to be on the move and I can go back to SD when I feel like it.

[bearishgurl]

Here’s this morning’s gas prices from gasbuddy.com in one of the biggest oil-producing towns in “flyover country” (bold is mine):

Lowest Gas Prices in bartlesville, ok

1.37
Circle K
925 SW Frank Phillips Blvd & S Kaw Ave
Bartlesville

42m ago
Garys_F150

1.38
Phillips 66
1835 SW Frank Phillips Blvd & OK-123
Bartlesville

41m ago
Garys_F150

1.38
Sinclair
1705 SW Frank Phillips Blvd & SW Adeline Ave
Bartlesville

42m ago
Garys_F150

1.38
QuikTrip
1835 SE Washington Blvd near Nowata Rd
Bartlesville

1h ago
loveBUG0515

1.38
Phillips 66
609 NE Washington Blvd near Minnesota St
Bartlesville

4h ago
greene570

Umm, this particular population could care less if the rest of the country thinks it’s excessive that their vehicles are all Triton or Hemi V-8’s. Bring ’em on! The reality is that they’re going to continue to drive what serves their needs and what they’re most comfortable in. Fill ‘er up!

Even when the sitting-duck captive audience in SD, CA was paying almost $5 gallon for gas, this area’s gas was just $2.53 to $2.68 gallon.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, Vegas recovered better than San Diego, from the bottom. The operative words being “from the bottom”. Same goes for riverside and San Bernardino counties. The returns are wonderfu, if you had bought at the bottom.

I love the Strip in Vegas. The crowds of people and the excitement. MGM will start charging for parking because they can. Tourist traffic is up. They are talking about light rail along the strip and to the airport. I bet they will accomplish that before San Diego because they learned the lesson from the crash and they need to diversify the economy. I like it here. A lot of the news articles you read are based on comparison to the peak. It’s a different story compared to the bottom. Happiness and satisfaction is all about perspective.

Anyway, I’m lucky to have choices. I like to be on the move and I can go back to SD when I feel like it.[/quote]

I suspect that a lot of LV’s population influx from SoCal in the past decade has been from residents who were renters in SoCal and felt they would never own a home if they stayed. OR residents who over-borrowed on their longtime home or bought it at the peak and lost it to foreclosure or short sale and wanted a “fresh start” (especially from the inland empire where the real estate values really got hammered during the depths of the recession). In the ensuing years, many were able to raise their credit scores enough to buy something in Clark Co, NV. Now, if they wanted to come back to SoCal, they likely wouldn’t make enough off their LV-area home for a downpayment to re-enter SoCal because the values have completely rebounded or more than rebounded in most areas.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]. . . Happiness and satisfaction is all about perspective.

Anyway, I’m lucky to have choices. I like to be on the move and I can go back to SD when I feel like it.[/quote]Yes, you are the exception, brian. You have well-established family and property in SD and can come and go at whim without too much fuss or expense.

The rest of the SoCal transplants in LV likely don’t have those choices …. especially if they are married to FT jobs there and have kids in school.

[FlyerInHi]

You’re wrong BG. CA refugees in Vegas are not from the inland empire. The inland empire is very much the same as Vegas in that they provide lower cost housing for people who cannot afford the coast.

A lot of coastal Californians come to Vegas because they don’t want to be in the inland empire.

We actually have a lot of retirees from all over the country. I know a guy from PA who’s here because there are only 5 states he can live where his PA public pension is not taxed. One is the states is PA which too cold. WA is too cold also.
That leaves NV, FL and another state i forgot. Oh, I think TX.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]. . . We actually have a lot of retirees from all over the country. I know a guy from PA who’s here because there are only 5 states he can live where his PA public pension is not taxed. One is the states is PA which too cold. WA is too cold also.
That leaves NV, FL and another state i forgot.[/quote]That’s interesting, FIH. I never really investigated that angle as to where to retire because I’m picky about my immediate environment and I don’t plan on paying much (income?) tax, in any case.

[The-Shoveler]

OK I will be more specific,

IMO I bet there will be net inbound domestic migration into SoCal in 2016.

I was up skiing this weekend, Mostly millennials these days, I kept asking where people were from when we got on the lift, there were quite a few who just relocated recently to LA from other states.

[moneymaker]

What’s up with the word wrap for this topic? Makes it harder to read.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl]When young adult residents of TX/OK/AR decide to get married, their main goal in the first years of marriage is to pay off their home and their new truck (if they have a loan on it). Especially if parents helped them build or buy the home.

A LOT of young couples in this region have their homes paid off PRIOR to having kids or at the very latest, by the time their youngest kid reaches school age.

A paid-off first home is a very important goal to this demographic and they’ll work several jobs to do it, if necessary.

Having excessive debt is shunned and this value is hammered into them by both sets of parents from the get go (during their engagement).

And no, they don’t all buy/build mcmansions for their first homes straight out of college![/quote]

I don’t agree with this. If people were this fiscally conservative, we wouldn’t have the dire stats about people not being prepared for retirement.

I think the data show that smaller rural cities are being economically left behind.

[spdrun]

What’s up with the word wrap for this topic? Makes it harder to read.

Blame me — I think the ginormous picture of front yards that I inserted messed things up.

[Author]

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