Stocks slide 311 points today

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Where do you stand on the position as a whole? Are we to believe that you waited every day for 12 months to short until the day before yesterday and got the exact high? If not, you are probably at best even on your puts if not still upside down due to time erosion as well as price. Also, % gains on options are less meaningful than the gross dollars made. I know people that talk about 50% returns etc, but they only have a few thousand in, so 50% is not an appreciable amount of gross dollars even though it sounds great at cocktail parties. If we get a worldwide financial crisis, you bears will ultimately be right. I do not root or gloat, I have been doing this too long to get too carried away either way.

I am one of the bulls, and did get my ass kicked the last few days. Today will be very interesting, the rally in bonds is what I think will stablize things shortly. Also, the COT report out today I doubt will show a major shift to the short side, but if it does, I will re-evaluate my positions. We could get a very sharp rally in the near term due to these two things. Most of the things present at prior major highs, are not present here, but anything can happen.

I am buying the open today in the S&P futures, which as I type this is down about 10 points from yesterdays close in the pre-market. I also bought some futures yesterday, but was stopped out on that trade. The gloom and doomers are going to get another pleasing open, if we stay here for the next hour.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Where do you stand on the position as a whole? Are we to believe that you waited every day for 12 months to short until the day before yesterday and got the exact high? If not, you are probably at best even on your puts if not still upside down due to time erosion as well as price. Also, % gains on options are less meaningful than the gross dollars made. I know people that talk about 50% returns etc, but they only have a few thousand in, so 50% is not an appreciable amount of gross dollars even though it sounds great at cocktail parties. If we get a worldwide financial crisis, you bears will ultimately be right. I do not root or gloat, I have been doing this too long to get too carried away either way.

I am one of the bulls, and did get my ass kicked the last few days. Today will be very interesting, the rally in bonds is what I think will stablize things shortly. Also, the COT report out today I doubt will show a major shift to the short side, but if it does, I will re-evaluate my positions. We could get a very sharp rally in the near term due to these two things. Most of the things present at prior major highs, are not present here, but anything can happen.

I am buying the open today in the S&P futures, which as I type this is down about 10 points from yesterdays close in the pre-market. I also bought some futures yesterday, but was stopped out on that trade. The gloom and doomers are going to get another pleasing open, if we stay here for the next hour.

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

The thing that breeds the most instability is stability ,,, If that make any sense.

Anyway the point of this post is, in my mind the worst thing that can happen is that we don’t get a recession.. Why ???

You need recessions to purge the excesses, How many of your colleagues have their grown kids and grand kids living at home because they cannot afford rent even though they have reasonably good jobs !!!

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

The thing that breeds the most instability is stability ,,, If that make any sense.

Anyway the point of this post is, in my mind the worst thing that can happen is that we don’t get a recession.. Why ???

You need recessions to purge the excesses, How many of your colleagues have their grown kids and grand kids living at home because they cannot afford rent even though they have reasonably good jobs !!!

[cr]

This is telling:

“The benchmark index has gained more than 2,700 points since the beginning of 2006, and went from 13,000 to 14,000 in only 58 days. Before that, it only took 126 days for the Dow to move from 12,000 to 13,000, which happened on April 25.

In contrast, it took seven years for the index to make the 1,000-point jump from 11,000 to 12,000.”

[cr]

This is telling:

“The benchmark index has gained more than 2,700 points since the beginning of 2006, and went from 13,000 to 14,000 in only 58 days. Before that, it only took 126 days for the Dow to move from 12,000 to 13,000, which happened on April 25.

In contrast, it took seven years for the index to make the 1,000-point jump from 11,000 to 12,000.”

[CAwireman]

And at the time of this writing, Friday 7/27/07, 11:30 am, Stocks are down an addtional 112 points from Thursday….

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

And at the time of this writing, Friday 7/27/07, 11:30 am, Stocks are down an addtional 112 points from Thursday….

HiggyBaby

[what_a_disasta]

Nasty fade at the finish!

[what_a_disasta]

Nasty fade at the finish!

[Ozzie]

Friday saw another 200 point downturn, but I think we’ll see 14,500 by the end of 2007 or Q1 08 . Earnings have been good in general and even the CAT disappointment was not due to revenue slippage but instead to one time capital expenditures that promise to increase earnings in the future. Tech seems strong. GDP was an uspide surprise and even consumer confidence was up. Just saw a report that the inflows into hedge funds in Q2 2007 set a record. How is that money going to be deployed? Surely not into risky bonds. Also saw an article in Barron’s last week that confirmed the “little guy” (the retail investor) has by and large sat out this Bull market run so there is not anywhere near the speculation of the late 90’s.

I try to buy USDA Prime steak when it’s on sale and the same goes for great stocks. I’ll spend a few hours this weekend hopefully finding some nice cuts to choose from.

[Ozzie]

Friday saw another 200 point downturn, but I think we’ll see 14,500 by the end of 2007 or Q1 08 . Earnings have been good in general and even the CAT disappointment was not due to revenue slippage but instead to one time capital expenditures that promise to increase earnings in the future. Tech seems strong. GDP was an uspide surprise and even consumer confidence was up. Just saw a report that the inflows into hedge funds in Q2 2007 set a record. How is that money going to be deployed? Surely not into risky bonds. Also saw an article in Barron’s last week that confirmed the “little guy” (the retail investor) has by and large sat out this Bull market run so there is not anywhere near the speculation of the late 90’s.

I try to buy USDA Prime steak when it’s on sale and the same goes for great stocks. I’ll spend a few hours this weekend hopefully finding some nice cuts to choose from.

[PerryChase]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/27/AR2007072700132.html?hpid=topnews

Eat too much steak and your arteries will clog up. You’ll die before you get to enjoy all your money.

Personally, I’m not predicting gloom and doom. But then again, Dow 11,000 will not surprise me. It’s always possible. Your wealth is only relative to others. If I loose 20% and other loose 50%, then I’m still relatively better off.

We should not fixate on a certain percent. We just need to maintain and improve our purchasing power relative to others.

That’s especially true when it comes to Real Estate. If you can move up when others are moving down, then you did something right.

[PerryChase]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/27/AR2007072700132.html?hpid=topnews

Eat too much steak and your arteries will clog up. You’ll die before you get to enjoy all your money.

Personally, I’m not predicting gloom and doom. But then again, Dow 11,000 will not surprise me. It’s always possible. Your wealth is only relative to others. If I loose 20% and other loose 50%, then I’m still relatively better off.

We should not fixate on a certain percent. We just need to maintain and improve our purchasing power relative to others.

That’s especially true when it comes to Real Estate. If you can move up when others are moving down, then you did something right.

[HereWeGo]

Chris-
How concerned are you at this point? Much like you, my back side is awfully red at this point.

This is a slide that’s not based on an event, not based on a loss, not based on an economic downturn, it’s merely based on one word:

subprime

I swear, Europeans wet their undies every time that word is mentioned, even if they can’t explain the size of the subprime market or the losses in the subprime market, or why subprime lending issues are so radically differnt from corporate lending issues.

Amazing. GDP surprises to the upside, inflation surprises to the downside, the Treasury Secretary tells every one to calm down, and no effect. The one bright side is that the Mexicans actually decided to stop playing the role of lap dog to the NYSE and focused on their own market for the day (the Brazilians, to my regret, found the leash and collar too comforting to resist for the entire day.)

[Author]

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