Stocks, Banks, Gold-This board has all been wrong.

[privatebanker]

Word games? I don’t provide a cookie cutter approach to clients meaning no two clients situations are the same. People have different perspectives on life, the economy, investment experience, etc. Also, I work for a Private Bank and our minimum is at least $5 million. Most clients I work with are more concerned with preservation of capital with a risk/return that outperforms their preferred benchmark rather than hitting a home run every day. We incorporate as many asset classes as possible so long as it is within the client’s risk/return comfort zone. Alternative investments are almost always included in client portfolios i.e. hedge funds, private equity, CDOs, commodities, etc.

[powayseller]

Again, please tell us the return you have provided for your clients in the last 10 years, as well as the investments you hold now in your own portfolio. Please spare us the run-around about how each client’s situation is unique. You come around and say you are so superior to me, CFPs are so superior in their performance, but you offer no proof.

[privatebanker]

You just don’t get it. You’re like a bulldog or something it’s hilarious. When did I say I was superior to anyone? I don’t think I’m any better than anyone else.

You’re weird, your life revolves around this website. What would you do if this website went down?

[Daniel]

desmoJ,

You got a nice, catchy title for you thread. Good job! I happen to agree that, housing aside, many of the economics forecasts here are likely to be far off the mark. It’s easy to get carried away and to think that the sky is falling.

[powayseller]

Ok, 3 times I asked privatebanker about the returns he provides for his clients, and what he holds in his own accounts. He wrote “I’ve always said, “THIS IS THE LAST PLACE YOU WOULD WANT TO RECEIVE INVESTMENT ADVICE!” I’ve seen some very naive recommendations. This is a housing site! Go see a CFP!”

I ask what is the typical return that a CFP gets for his clients. He says I have myopic vision. I ask what is the rate of return he gets for his clients, and he says each client’s needs is unique. I say no more run around and word games, and he says I’m weird.

privatebanker, I call your bluff. What are your investments and what are you recommending for your clients? I want to follow your progress, so we on piggington can decide if a CFP is wiser than we are.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

ps –

You were right when you said the DOW was not representative of the broader market.
However, the S&P 500 also hit 5 1/2 year highs this week.
Though the headlines were marking a new all-time high for the narrow DOW, the market has been advancing fairly broadly.

[rseiser]

I am sure a CFP is more useful in helping you in routine procedures and guiding you what has worked historically and not in forecasting the market. (I am just guessing since I am not one)
powayseller, if you mostly want to predict the future, I am sure a CFP will be no help to you. He will at best guide you along the probabilites of the past, but they will be different than the probabilities you believe in.
However, it might be useful to exchange information between both of you. A CFP might give you an idea what many other people are thinking, and then based on that you can adjust your own outlook. (Away from consensus if you think consensus is flawed).

[powayseller]

I believe Rich is a very good CFP. However, I am not sure of the majority of them. I am concerned about claims from people like privatebanker, who is promoting CFP in general, without any data to back it up. While Rich will be a very good CFP since he is forward looking and has so much knowledge, what is the track record of the average CFP?

When we asked Chris Johnston about his track record, he promptly posted it. I’ve been open about my investments since this forum started, almost one year ago. Yet when I ask privatebanker about his investments, he calls me myopic, because his returns are too bad, probably. His response is a poor reflection on the profession, when you have a CFP going around insulting people who ask for his performance data.

[no_such_reality]

CDs, yes. Stocks, no: how will you know when to get out?

How will you know when to get in?

Simple fact, market timers underperform the market.

Fact #2, CD subtracting taxes and inflation, essentially a zero sum game.

[powayseller]

CDs and Treasury notes are the best way I know of to preserve capital in anticipation of a big stock market bust during the upcoming recession. I will definitely get back in equities when the economy starts turning around, when the S&P500 is 30% off today’s high.

By the way, market timing has worked quite well for me. I completely missed the tech stock bubble.

[no_such_reality]

CDS and Treasury notes are sucker bets for anybody that isn’t counting down their pile to the end of their days.

If you got a CD two years ago at less than 5.75% compounded, today, you have less buying power after paying for taxes than you did two years ago.

In the end, you’re either going to be out to early, in too late or miss the getting out anyway. Your transaction fees, and slush will leave you behind someone that just parked their money in a spider.

[powayseller]

Yes, CDs are a sucker’s bet for the long term. But in a global recession, it’s a winner’s bet.

I sold my house in 1/06 and my equities in 3/06, and went in to capital preservation mode. My plan is to get back into equities as the depth of the recession in late 07 or sometime in 08, and back into housing at the depth of the collapse in 2010 – 2012. There are times to grow your money, and times to just hold on to what you’ve got.

[privatebanker]

PS –
You’re calling my bluff? What bluff? My initial statement was in the best interests of those who have no investment experience and needed some sound advice. Do you even know what a CFP is? It’s not a role, it’s a credential one can obtain through extensive studying and then passing an exam. A CFP can be a financial planner, stock broker, private banker, etc. There is no specific way to track a CFP’s rate of return. Everything that you have said shows just how naive you are. Your recomendations telling people to put all their money in CDs, etc. is very questionable. Are you a registered investment advisor? I’d be very careful if I were you.

As for what I recommend my clients, it all depends on their situation as I mentioned before. I wouldn’t recommend the same portfolio for someone that is retired as I would for someone that is in their mid 40’s. That would be ridiculous! And what I do recommend them is confidential and I wouldn’t dare share that to you on a public forum.

I will give you an idea of what I do for my own investments and their returns. I won’t give dollar amounts or allocation percentages.

**THIS EXAMPLE IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION. THE FOLLOWING PORTFOLIO SUMMARY IS SIMPLY A BREAKDOWN OF WHAT I CURRENTLY HAVE AND IS IN NO WAY SUITABLE FOR AN UNACCREDITED INVESTOR. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DUPLICATE. PAST RETURNS ARE NO INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS**

I look to outperform the S&P 500 while taking on less risk (less standard deviation). I utilize the following institutional money managers (seperate accounts managed on a discretionary basis):

– Ashfield Advantage Growth (Large Cap Tax Sensitive Growth)
– NWQ Large Cap Value
– Wells Mid Cap Growth
– Anchor Mid Cap Value
– UBS Small Cap GRAP
– Keeley Small Cap Value
– Brandes International Value
– Invesco REIT
– PIMCO Total Return Bond
– OZ Master Fund (Hedge Fund)
– Alternative Montage Fund (Hedge Fund of funds), Series E – Emerging Markets Fixed Income and Equity, Series F – Event Driven & Series H Distressed Equities
– CAP Diversified Real Estate Fund (Private Equity)
– ACE Investment Strategists, LLC (Managed Futures Fund)

Portfolio’s Annualized Rate of Return for the last 10 years = 15%+ (meaning some managers have returned more, some less). The managed futures fund has only been around about 6 years but has averaged almost 50%/yr. Portfolio standard deviation is less than the S&P 500 by around 3% or so. I’m not looking to make a home run every day either. I’d rather take an institutional approach to my investments through modern portfolio theory and quarterly rebalancing if needed.

Good luck on trying to track these managers’ returns. You would need to see their individual holdings to do that and they aren’t mutual funds, they’re private investment managers so it’s hard to find their holdings. You would need to be invested with them most likely.

[anxvariety]

Someone sold the mid-term election year bull in this forum as the most popularly identifable bull trend.. yet when it comes, the person tries to take credit for calling it 3 months late? LOL

I’m tired of hearing people play both sides making vague statements in here and then trying to take credit for a “prediction” when things unfold…

I’m for making concrete measurable predictions for those that want to take credit for wins… otherwise it’s just psycho-babble and I have to police it and battle newsletter peddlers.

[powayseller]

Chris was talking about a mid-year presidential election year with these characteristics: 1) it starts off a low, 2) it starts end October or early Nov, and 3) it lasts 1 – 2 years. The September rally is *not* what he had in mind. It was sduuude who made the error of crediting Chris for predicting the September rally; it was not at all what Chris was talking about. This rally is limited to a few Dow stocks, and even the bulls are concerned about its narrow scope.

[Author]

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