Stock market today

[livinincali]

[quote=kev374]this is not a big deal… a small correction and then the market is going to resume it’s upward trend. We had a 26% gain in the market last year so what’s a 5-6% retraction, nothing really.[/quote]

All bubbles pop by starting with a no big deal correction. It’s why nobody manages to get out at the top and remain unscathed. Even once you start realizing the bubble might have popped, you wait for it to come back a little bit before selling.

[paramount]

Washington Times: US Economy will Crash on March 4, 2014

MEANS: U.S. economy on schedule to crash March 4, 2014
America’s fall will take global economies with it

Those wild and crazy Mayans put down their marker that the end of the world would occur on Dec. 21, 2012 — about two months from now. There is, of course, some small chance that they might be right. On the other hand, there is a very large probability that the real end of the world will occur around March 4, 2014.
The doomsday clock will ring then because the U.S. economy may fully crash around that date, which will, in turn, bring down all world economies and all hope of any recovery for the foreseeable future — certainly over the course of most of our lifetimes.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/25/us-economy-on-schedule-to-crash-march-2014/#ixzz2scYPjBBV
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/25/us-economy-on-schedule-to-crash-march-2014/#ixzz2scYGl5qD
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

[joec]

With the mass media reporting more crashes, I guess the stock market will now recover and continue to hit all time highs this year…

I guess no 20% correction 🙁

[spdrun]

So basically it retraced its losses this week, Dow still down 5% this year. Recent volatility is certainly a good sign for those who want a correction. And despite Yellen, the Fed voting members are actually more conservative this year, which doesn’t bode well for QE.

We’ll see next week, I guess. Bonus points if something disruptive happens at the Olympics, which is always a possibility considering the political situation in Russia and their general level of incompetent mismanagement.

[paramount]

This has gone viral (I think…)

1929 Chart

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11

[CA renter]

I posted some links to charts showing margin debts which also show similarities to bubble tops in the past.

IIRC, a number of these types of charts were circulating before the housing bubble burst (and before the stock/internet bubble burst, too).

Nothing is guaranteed, but one would be foolish to dismiss these things.

[an]

[quote=paramount]This has gone viral (I think…)

1929 Chart

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11%5B/quote%5DI’m freakin’ salivating at that chart.

[spdrun]

The scales are all wrong, fortunately. It would mean a fall to the mid to low 13000s, not a wholesale crash. Not that I believe in chart voodoo.

[kev374]

Per that “scary” chart, even if the DOW crashes monumentally as indicated by that chart (around a 22% drop) and settles at 12500 then it’s still no big deal actually…we’re still DOUBLE what we were during the 2008 financial crisis. And that is IF the worst case scenario hits.

The market has just gained so much in the last couple of years that it needs to crash 50% in order for a true crash… nobody is going to sweat a 15-20% correction after having gained about 250% since the bottom in 2008.

AND if you take the chart for what it is, then per that chart after the correction it should regain about 10% of the correction almost immediately so we’re talking about a 10% net correction after all which is absolutely nothing…

My personal view is that we are going to hit 18000 or more before there are any signs of a correction. We are probably a year or two away from that.

[spdrun]

Why are we more likely to hit 18000 than 14000? Market growth has far outstripped the real economy, and margin debt is at all-time highs.

Personally, I hope the gogo days (or at least flatness) continues through next Fed meeting to keep the taper on track, then another 5%-10% leg down.

[Author]

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