Squatters in Murrieta

[temeculaguy]

socratt, everyone is entitled to an opinion, personally when I run the redfin stats for homes that have been reduced in price, it’s almost exclusively customs on land, shorts and reo’s, that is where the big chunks are coming out these days, the tract homes are listing for the same or even a little more these days and selling in hours.

http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92592

click the tab for price reduced, and check some out, I think they are getting hit late becuase thier owners had more financial resources to get by for longer, but banks aren’t that smart and they aren’t that organized.

paramount, I’m glad you have noticed the same thing, I figured you made mental notes of houses in your hood. It’s the hardest thing to impress on people who don’t live here, we don’t have a tsuinami on the horizon, it came through already, and the recovery is well underway, we fell first and hard, but half of the homes have changed hands for half price and the lawns are greening up again, home depot is busy again.

Anywone remember waiting hawk and matt making videos of tracts where every third lawn was brown two years ago. Two years ago L.A. news walked my hood with a reporter and showed how half the lawns were brown (that was the reson i began looking at this hood). They didn’t become part of the shadow inventory, the got bought by families who live in them now. We are almost out of peak FB’s, they’ve all been recycled. Each month, the price goes up ever so slightly, maybe 5k to the point that my model match in escrow is about 50k more than what I paid. I know nobody else will agree but we are eight months into this dead cat bounce, that’s a high bounce for a cat, I’d say I have a 50% chance of having lucked into the bottom.

Purely anectdotal but on my street we are down to just four original owners, all of the rest have bought for half price in the last 12 months. The final two that were vacant or trying a short, finally repo’d, were listed and were sold in hours, the lawns are going in and anyday I’ll meet the new neighbors. Of those four original owners, only one is showing any form of distress, but no nod yet, taxes are current, the other three made huge downs or paid cash and have no refi’s or helocs on file, so in the next year, maybe we could have one house go and be a part of that tsunami, big deal, last year it was one a month.

[temeculaguy]

socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.

[temeculaguy]

socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.

[temeculaguy]

socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.

[temeculaguy]

socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.

[temeculaguy]

socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=temeculaguy]socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.[/quote]

Seems there are so many waiting for this last chance Winter 2009 housing thing, It may be a little disappointing maybe.

It may even get a bit crowded at the bid.

But good luck to you all !!

If I had to guess I would say it will be more of the same in TV through the winter, then maybe a little spike coming next spring, then back to a normal market by summer 2010 (in TV).

(Normal means 70% organic “non-REO” sales to me).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=temeculaguy]socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.[/quote]

Seems there are so many waiting for this last chance Winter 2009 housing thing, It may be a little disappointing maybe.

It may even get a bit crowded at the bid.

But good luck to you all !!

If I had to guess I would say it will be more of the same in TV through the winter, then maybe a little spike coming next spring, then back to a normal market by summer 2010 (in TV).

(Normal means 70% organic “non-REO” sales to me).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=temeculaguy]socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.[/quote]

Seems there are so many waiting for this last chance Winter 2009 housing thing, It may be a little disappointing maybe.

It may even get a bit crowded at the bid.

But good luck to you all !!

If I had to guess I would say it will be more of the same in TV through the winter, then maybe a little spike coming next spring, then back to a normal market by summer 2010 (in TV).

(Normal means 70% organic “non-REO” sales to me).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=temeculaguy]socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.[/quote]

Seems there are so many waiting for this last chance Winter 2009 housing thing, It may be a little disappointing maybe.

It may even get a bit crowded at the bid.

But good luck to you all !!

If I had to guess I would say it will be more of the same in TV through the winter, then maybe a little spike coming next spring, then back to a normal market by summer 2010 (in TV).

(Normal means 70% organic “non-REO” sales to me).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=temeculaguy]socratt, I missed some of what you said as i was getting lost in my own writing. I do agree tht there will be a winter event, I actually think there may be some great bargains this winter and should be less competative. I am seeing more an more reo’s listed every day, some days, they will list 6 in 92592. The prices aren’t any lower and they are selling quickly, so they just keep releasing them. The overall inventory is still shrinking. In 92592, there are now only 150 non shorts or non pendings that you can buy ( a four week supply). 5 added each day, 6 sold, by november, that should change, days on market will increase and you can drive a hard bargain, plus the 8k gov’t gift goes away. And this is the pure opinion part, this winter is the last chance. If I get don’t buy my rental between Nov 2009 and Feb 2010, I know full well that I wont be getting one at all.[/quote]

Seems there are so many waiting for this last chance Winter 2009 housing thing, It may be a little disappointing maybe.

It may even get a bit crowded at the bid.

But good luck to you all !!

If I had to guess I would say it will be more of the same in TV through the winter, then maybe a little spike coming next spring, then back to a normal market by summer 2010 (in TV).

(Normal means 70% organic “non-REO” sales to me).

[Author]

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