Spring Buying Season

[DWCAP]

Hey SD R,
You state that the desirable areas are doing ok, and everyone here wishes for alittle less. Totally agree. I am just wonering how the total spring selling season is. How are the middle and low income areas? I follow MM, clairmt, Pway, and I know there is more activity than 3 months ago, but eh! that is to be expected. What about the other areas of the county? Sales are good overall, or is CV and 4S holding out and everyone else is getting clobbered? Just wondering.

[SD Realtor]

Hi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,

“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”

I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.

My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.

Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.

Then again, most likely I am all wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,

“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”

I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.

My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.

Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.

Then again, most likely I am all wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,

“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”

I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.

My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.

Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.

Then again, most likely I am all wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,

“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”

I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.

My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.

Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.

Then again, most likely I am all wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,

“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”

I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.

My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.

Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.

Then again, most likely I am all wrong.

SD Realtor

[DWCAP]

Thanks SD R,
I have written off the YoY anyways. The bubble in subprime popped about 13 months ago now, August will be 1 year pop for everybody. Starting to get to the point where shitty starts to look ok cause last year was also shitty. I just wonered about esmith’s “fort vs non-fort” idea and how true it is.
Truth be told, I couldnt give a rats ass about it all now. Kind of a game for me. I do have some sympathy for those of you with kids and a wife dreaming of a house (NOW you cheap jerk). Just not one of you yet. I like that houses in my area were 450k, and now are 350k. It isnt money in the bank, but piece of mind. And besides there are alot more buyers who can buy at 350 than 450. We have to clear the tables of buyers in each step down, and each time the table is bigger and more stable.
I play a little game, watching the market and trying to find the first house in the areas I mentioned that lists AND sells below 300k, and interfamily doesnt count. Itll come in MM, that I am sure. Now itll prob be a house that you should just burn and rebuild, but still. My current guess is September, when the summer is over, the “stimulus” is spent, and the hope is gone. But I know nothing of the games being played in Washington and NY, so they may ruin my little game. It is ok, the bet is ill buy myself a beer and toast the return to affordability, or ill buy myself a beer and drown my sorrows about being wrong again. Either way I end up with a beer and houses that are more affordable. Swweeeet!

[DWCAP]

Thanks SD R,
I have written off the YoY anyways. The bubble in subprime popped about 13 months ago now, August will be 1 year pop for everybody. Starting to get to the point where shitty starts to look ok cause last year was also shitty. I just wonered about esmith’s “fort vs non-fort” idea and how true it is.
Truth be told, I couldnt give a rats ass about it all now. Kind of a game for me. I do have some sympathy for those of you with kids and a wife dreaming of a house (NOW you cheap jerk). Just not one of you yet. I like that houses in my area were 450k, and now are 350k. It isnt money in the bank, but piece of mind. And besides there are alot more buyers who can buy at 350 than 450. We have to clear the tables of buyers in each step down, and each time the table is bigger and more stable.
I play a little game, watching the market and trying to find the first house in the areas I mentioned that lists AND sells below 300k, and interfamily doesnt count. Itll come in MM, that I am sure. Now itll prob be a house that you should just burn and rebuild, but still. My current guess is September, when the summer is over, the “stimulus” is spent, and the hope is gone. But I know nothing of the games being played in Washington and NY, so they may ruin my little game. It is ok, the bet is ill buy myself a beer and toast the return to affordability, or ill buy myself a beer and drown my sorrows about being wrong again. Either way I end up with a beer and houses that are more affordable. Swweeeet!

[DWCAP]

Thanks SD R,
I have written off the YoY anyways. The bubble in subprime popped about 13 months ago now, August will be 1 year pop for everybody. Starting to get to the point where shitty starts to look ok cause last year was also shitty. I just wonered about esmith’s “fort vs non-fort” idea and how true it is.
Truth be told, I couldnt give a rats ass about it all now. Kind of a game for me. I do have some sympathy for those of you with kids and a wife dreaming of a house (NOW you cheap jerk). Just not one of you yet. I like that houses in my area were 450k, and now are 350k. It isnt money in the bank, but piece of mind. And besides there are alot more buyers who can buy at 350 than 450. We have to clear the tables of buyers in each step down, and each time the table is bigger and more stable.
I play a little game, watching the market and trying to find the first house in the areas I mentioned that lists AND sells below 300k, and interfamily doesnt count. Itll come in MM, that I am sure. Now itll prob be a house that you should just burn and rebuild, but still. My current guess is September, when the summer is over, the “stimulus” is spent, and the hope is gone. But I know nothing of the games being played in Washington and NY, so they may ruin my little game. It is ok, the bet is ill buy myself a beer and toast the return to affordability, or ill buy myself a beer and drown my sorrows about being wrong again. Either way I end up with a beer and houses that are more affordable. Swweeeet!

[DWCAP]

Thanks SD R,
I have written off the YoY anyways. The bubble in subprime popped about 13 months ago now, August will be 1 year pop for everybody. Starting to get to the point where shitty starts to look ok cause last year was also shitty. I just wonered about esmith’s “fort vs non-fort” idea and how true it is.
Truth be told, I couldnt give a rats ass about it all now. Kind of a game for me. I do have some sympathy for those of you with kids and a wife dreaming of a house (NOW you cheap jerk). Just not one of you yet. I like that houses in my area were 450k, and now are 350k. It isnt money in the bank, but piece of mind. And besides there are alot more buyers who can buy at 350 than 450. We have to clear the tables of buyers in each step down, and each time the table is bigger and more stable.
I play a little game, watching the market and trying to find the first house in the areas I mentioned that lists AND sells below 300k, and interfamily doesnt count. Itll come in MM, that I am sure. Now itll prob be a house that you should just burn and rebuild, but still. My current guess is September, when the summer is over, the “stimulus” is spent, and the hope is gone. But I know nothing of the games being played in Washington and NY, so they may ruin my little game. It is ok, the bet is ill buy myself a beer and toast the return to affordability, or ill buy myself a beer and drown my sorrows about being wrong again. Either way I end up with a beer and houses that are more affordable. Swweeeet!

[DWCAP]

Thanks SD R,
I have written off the YoY anyways. The bubble in subprime popped about 13 months ago now, August will be 1 year pop for everybody. Starting to get to the point where shitty starts to look ok cause last year was also shitty. I just wonered about esmith’s “fort vs non-fort” idea and how true it is.
Truth be told, I couldnt give a rats ass about it all now. Kind of a game for me. I do have some sympathy for those of you with kids and a wife dreaming of a house (NOW you cheap jerk). Just not one of you yet. I like that houses in my area were 450k, and now are 350k. It isnt money in the bank, but piece of mind. And besides there are alot more buyers who can buy at 350 than 450. We have to clear the tables of buyers in each step down, and each time the table is bigger and more stable.
I play a little game, watching the market and trying to find the first house in the areas I mentioned that lists AND sells below 300k, and interfamily doesnt count. Itll come in MM, that I am sure. Now itll prob be a house that you should just burn and rebuild, but still. My current guess is September, when the summer is over, the “stimulus” is spent, and the hope is gone. But I know nothing of the games being played in Washington and NY, so they may ruin my little game. It is ok, the bet is ill buy myself a beer and toast the return to affordability, or ill buy myself a beer and drown my sorrows about being wrong again. Either way I end up with a beer and houses that are more affordable. Swweeeet!

[temeculaguy]

DW, you have the right attitude, make a game out of it because that is all that it is. When I buy and leave behind my little internet hobby, I nominate you to pick up my torch and find a way to relate all strategy back to alcohol. Speaking of alcohol, how come none of the financial posts about the falling dollar and gold prices point out the most important part of currency rates, the fact that bordeaux prices are rising, I don’t need any gold, but I need my wine.

Bugs, once again, is right. The decline has been steady, be prepared for a little bounce, we are way overdue. It should never have declined so consistently. The next three months should be the busiest time of the year, the bulls haven’t had anything to grab onto so expect a big propaganda push coming soon. If it doesn’t come and the banks pee on the parade, expect fire and brimstone come October, because there isn’t anything more the fed can do, they’ve fired all their bullets. If you are a seller, get aggresive as hell, it’s 1:45 a.m., last call.

[temeculaguy]

DW, you have the right attitude, make a game out of it because that is all that it is. When I buy and leave behind my little internet hobby, I nominate you to pick up my torch and find a way to relate all strategy back to alcohol. Speaking of alcohol, how come none of the financial posts about the falling dollar and gold prices point out the most important part of currency rates, the fact that bordeaux prices are rising, I don’t need any gold, but I need my wine.

Bugs, once again, is right. The decline has been steady, be prepared for a little bounce, we are way overdue. It should never have declined so consistently. The next three months should be the busiest time of the year, the bulls haven’t had anything to grab onto so expect a big propaganda push coming soon. If it doesn’t come and the banks pee on the parade, expect fire and brimstone come October, because there isn’t anything more the fed can do, they’ve fired all their bullets. If you are a seller, get aggresive as hell, it’s 1:45 a.m., last call.

[temeculaguy]

DW, you have the right attitude, make a game out of it because that is all that it is. When I buy and leave behind my little internet hobby, I nominate you to pick up my torch and find a way to relate all strategy back to alcohol. Speaking of alcohol, how come none of the financial posts about the falling dollar and gold prices point out the most important part of currency rates, the fact that bordeaux prices are rising, I don’t need any gold, but I need my wine.

Bugs, once again, is right. The decline has been steady, be prepared for a little bounce, we are way overdue. It should never have declined so consistently. The next three months should be the busiest time of the year, the bulls haven’t had anything to grab onto so expect a big propaganda push coming soon. If it doesn’t come and the banks pee on the parade, expect fire and brimstone come October, because there isn’t anything more the fed can do, they’ve fired all their bullets. If you are a seller, get aggresive as hell, it’s 1:45 a.m., last call.

[temeculaguy]

DW, you have the right attitude, make a game out of it because that is all that it is. When I buy and leave behind my little internet hobby, I nominate you to pick up my torch and find a way to relate all strategy back to alcohol. Speaking of alcohol, how come none of the financial posts about the falling dollar and gold prices point out the most important part of currency rates, the fact that bordeaux prices are rising, I don’t need any gold, but I need my wine.

Bugs, once again, is right. The decline has been steady, be prepared for a little bounce, we are way overdue. It should never have declined so consistently. The next three months should be the busiest time of the year, the bulls haven’t had anything to grab onto so expect a big propaganda push coming soon. If it doesn’t come and the banks pee on the parade, expect fire and brimstone come October, because there isn’t anything more the fed can do, they’ve fired all their bullets. If you are a seller, get aggresive as hell, it’s 1:45 a.m., last call.

[Author]

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