Someone just Blinked In San Elijo Hills

[North County Jim]

Mr. B,

066078490

[Bugs]

I think you read way too much into Steve’s comment. He was specifically talking about the impact of increased competition among resales in a subdivision that is still under construction. I thought the comment was both accurate and very supportable with the data.

He did not suggest that there would be neighborhoods that are immune or insulated from a collapsing price structure.

Steve and I disagree as to the extent of the market correction but we don’t disagree that all the segments of the housing market here are ultimately connected and that all will be affected to one degree or another by widespread price corrections.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Bugs-

I’m sure you are right about me reading way too much into his comments. Back to lurking…

[Steve Beebo]

Lendlingbubbleco:

Did you really use the phrase “It’s going down clown”? Nobody has ever said that phrase to me before. In fact, I don’t know if anyone in the history of the world has ever said that exact phrase. But – no offense taken.

I do sometimes like to play the devil’s advocate, because even though the market in San Diego is not very good, and is likely to get worse, I don’t see a future freefall of prices to the tune of 40/50/60%.

The median price of an SFR is now $555,000, unchanged from 12 months ago. I’ll agree that there are more concessions this year on resales, but not much more than 2% average, if that. If the median drops 10%, to 500K, I think that more buyers will jump in. If it drops to 475K, a 15% drop, even more buyers will show up, as long as the job market stays OK.

Of course, my house can NEVER drop 15%. And I did sell two investment properties in the last two years, so that proves I’m not a complete idiot.

[sdcellar]

Steve Beebo- Maybe other people who’ve been around here longer than I have understand why you think your house won’t drop, but I don’t. Why is it that your house can never drop?

I’m not even trying to be a trouble maker. Rather, I’d like to use your thoughts to my advantage.

[sdrealtor]

SDCellar,
he was kidding

[barnaby33]

Not necessarily. If he has paid it off, it will NEVER drop 15% in value, because he would never sell it for less. You only take the hit if you actually sell.

Josh

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I was actually paraphrasing Happy Gilmore while he was miniature golfing. He said: “You’re going down, clown.”

So, no…it’s not original…the scene was freakin’ hilarious, though.

Median shmedian, anyway…what is important is that the schadenfreude can commence at once…Steve- I hope your house goes straight up one hundred trillion bazillion percent…what I’m looking forward to is all the formerly smug sh*thead genius “investors” from the last four years, eating steaming piles of their own feces.

[sdcellar]

sdr and Steve Beebo– I need my winky smiley!

[North County Jim]

There’s been another serious blink in SEH. This one is at 8*5 Hollowbrook.

This home was originally purchased in May 2005 for $800k by what appears to be an absentee owner/investor. I first noted this house in early summer when the asking price was $750-850k. That was later reduced to a flat $750k. It has now been reduced to a range of $675-750k. The comments note it is a short sale subject to lender approval.

My question for the pros out there. Would the lender (in this case Countrywide for both a first and second TD) have already agreed to the low end of this range as a selling price?

Also of note, the next-door neighbor with an inferior lot is also selling with an asking price of $910k.

[PerryChase]

Great information, North County Jim. Thanks for keeping us updated on SEH.

I have a feeling that after that house sells, some of the neighbors will be blinking too. 😉

[North County Jim]

The house closed two weeks ago for $915k. Included in that number is a $35k credit to the buyer for closing costs and “loan organization”. So the effective selling price was $880k.

With a purchase price of $932k and at least $75k into it (we viewed the home, the backyard had some serious work done), the loss on this place was at least $175k. At least in this case, the seller could absorb it.

As for the buyer, 29 years old with a first and a second TD and an annual tax liability of $15k. The insanity continues.

[BikeRider]

The 29 year old probably thinks living it that house makes him look like he’s somebody.

[gold_dredger_phd]

Wait until we have a real recession, either mostly local or nationwide or worldwide. Why do people think economic cycles have been banished?

I bought a house with another investor in 2002, and I noticed that the price of the house in Euros never went up. Even when I sold for a profit in dollars, the Euro price was the same.

This shows the price gains in real estate in San Diego are partly an illusion.

[powayseller]

I’m not quite following you. I was going to post this chart , but the piggington server kept timing out in when I selected “add image”. (By the way, I get the timing out message frequently and a snail’s pace web page loading on every piggington page, does anyone else?) The second graph shows the dollar vs the euro since 1999.

gold, when did you sell the house? Are you saying that houses were more expensive only because the dollar is devalued?

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