Someone Has His Eye On San Diego

[picpoule]

Someone thinks San Diego will be a good place to invest soon:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060409/news_1h09sandiego.html

[Bugs]

THere’ll be lots of opportunity to make a buck at some point, but it’s not going to be in 2007.

[privatebanker]

The thing that concerns me is I’ve noticed a lot of people thinking that once the market “crashes”, they’re going to go in a buy up a bunch of properties and make a ton of money. What if the market drops significantly and stays down there for a long time. I believe this is very feasible. We have just experienced one of the biggest real estate booms in history, it might take a very very long time for prices to come back to these levels. So people go in and buy properties with rates that will probably be a bit on the high side in a very depressed market that could be going sideways for a long time.

My best advice is to not follow herd mentality. Be very careful!

[LA_Renter]

I find myself in a conundrum in this situation. I am rooting for home prices to come down to their fair valuation. I have no problem with paying the CA coastal premium. Current valuations transcend that premium. Yet when looking at the decline in sales and rising inventories in San Diego I feel a knot developing in my stomach. I believe that 25% to 30% of jobs created in the past several years have been related to RE. Outside of RE related jobs, job growth has been weak throughout the entire state of CA . If San Diego breaks that threshold into falling prices, that means a significant downturn in these jobs. The R word will be floating all over the place by that time. If this scenario is to play out instead being happy that home prices are more affordable now I am going to be worried about keeping my job. Point being don’t count on all the people sitting on sidelines to jump in when their sweating layoff notices. Many times that money sitting on the sidelines is the last gasp of the current appreciation cycle, or what some call a “dead cat bounce”. I can tell you one thing all eyes are on San Diego.

[Author]

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