So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story)

[Anonymous]

Another reason that there will be an abundance of choices is that the buyers who lost their homes in foreclosures may not be credit worthy enough to be in a postion to buy again. Does that sound right?

[DCRogers]

I believe newguy paid $115/SF, so I don’t think he’ll be crying at the courthouse steps anytime soon… hard to build for much less than that.

In any case, in a cyclic market, it’s the holding period that allows one to avoid having to time the exact bottom of the market. You may not time the exact bottom, but in 10 years, you’ll likely be made whole with a bit of extra change.

For most assets (i.e., stocks) market timing is a loser’s game: the market is better at incorporating information than you are. An exception may be real estate, where the long lag times may give the patient an edge.

[DCRogers]

I believe newguy paid $115/SF, so I don’t think he’ll be crying at the courthouse steps anytime soon… hard to build for much less than that.

In any case, in a cyclic market, it’s the holding period that allows one to avoid having to time the exact bottom of the market. You may not time the exact bottom, but in 10 years, you’ll likely be made whole with a bit of extra change.

For most assets (i.e., stocks) market timing is a loser’s game: the market is better at incorporating information than you are. An exception may be real estate, where the long lag times may give the patient an edge.

[DCRogers]

I believe newguy paid $115/SF, so I don’t think he’ll be crying at the courthouse steps anytime soon… hard to build for much less than that.

In any case, in a cyclic market, it’s the holding period that allows one to avoid having to time the exact bottom of the market. You may not time the exact bottom, but in 10 years, you’ll likely be made whole with a bit of extra change.

For most assets (i.e., stocks) market timing is a loser’s game: the market is better at incorporating information than you are. An exception may be real estate, where the long lag times may give the patient an edge.

[5yes]

Hi everyone, thanks for your kind words. I appreciate everyone’s advice and still am deciding what to do. I agree with everyone that things will keep going down – no one knows how far. Marion it is nice to hear from a possible future neighbor. You sound pretty determined to get the best deal out there, I am sure you will find one and pay much less than me. We have been waiting to buy since 2004 and have been in and out of rentals, I HATE renting with a family and have never been able to do some of the good things that come with home ownership like hang pictures with abandon and decorate my kid’s rooms. I am leaning towards getting the house because eventually prices will go back up so I don’t think (I hope) that if in 10 years I want to move somewhere else I would have a problem selling it. If prices really go down as low as you think, Marion, then I will buy a second fabulous house and rent this one out. Do you think rental prices will slide significantly? Because if a I can rent out this 5 bedroom, nice house that I want to buy for the currently going rates (1900-2000) then I figure I wouldn’t be cash positive renting it out but I would be even with my mortage payment. Hey, if we see 1995 prices maybe I’ll even buy some rental property and be a real piggingtonian becuase even though I may have bought before the bottom of the market I won’t be buying more than I can afford with a traditional mortgage and my credit score will still be killer.

[5yes]

Hi everyone, thanks for your kind words. I appreciate everyone’s advice and still am deciding what to do. I agree with everyone that things will keep going down – no one knows how far. Marion it is nice to hear from a possible future neighbor. You sound pretty determined to get the best deal out there, I am sure you will find one and pay much less than me. We have been waiting to buy since 2004 and have been in and out of rentals, I HATE renting with a family and have never been able to do some of the good things that come with home ownership like hang pictures with abandon and decorate my kid’s rooms. I am leaning towards getting the house because eventually prices will go back up so I don’t think (I hope) that if in 10 years I want to move somewhere else I would have a problem selling it. If prices really go down as low as you think, Marion, then I will buy a second fabulous house and rent this one out. Do you think rental prices will slide significantly? Because if a I can rent out this 5 bedroom, nice house that I want to buy for the currently going rates (1900-2000) then I figure I wouldn’t be cash positive renting it out but I would be even with my mortage payment. Hey, if we see 1995 prices maybe I’ll even buy some rental property and be a real piggingtonian becuase even though I may have bought before the bottom of the market I won’t be buying more than I can afford with a traditional mortgage and my credit score will still be killer.

[5yes]

Hi everyone, thanks for your kind words. I appreciate everyone’s advice and still am deciding what to do. I agree with everyone that things will keep going down – no one knows how far. Marion it is nice to hear from a possible future neighbor. You sound pretty determined to get the best deal out there, I am sure you will find one and pay much less than me. We have been waiting to buy since 2004 and have been in and out of rentals, I HATE renting with a family and have never been able to do some of the good things that come with home ownership like hang pictures with abandon and decorate my kid’s rooms. I am leaning towards getting the house because eventually prices will go back up so I don’t think (I hope) that if in 10 years I want to move somewhere else I would have a problem selling it. If prices really go down as low as you think, Marion, then I will buy a second fabulous house and rent this one out. Do you think rental prices will slide significantly? Because if a I can rent out this 5 bedroom, nice house that I want to buy for the currently going rates (1900-2000) then I figure I wouldn’t be cash positive renting it out but I would be even with my mortage payment. Hey, if we see 1995 prices maybe I’ll even buy some rental property and be a real piggingtonian becuase even though I may have bought before the bottom of the market I won’t be buying more than I can afford with a traditional mortgage and my credit score will still be killer.

[Anonymous]

Hi, 5yes. I guess you’ve got to do what’s best for you psychologically as well as financially. I agree with you about not being able to decorate and/or feel comfortable doing it as a renter. I feel the same way. I really love having a home of my own and can’t wait to get one again.

I would think rents would go down more as prices go down. How much I don’t know.

[Anonymous]

Hi, 5yes. I guess you’ve got to do what’s best for you psychologically as well as financially. I agree with you about not being able to decorate and/or feel comfortable doing it as a renter. I feel the same way. I really love having a home of my own and can’t wait to get one again.

I would think rents would go down more as prices go down. How much I don’t know.

[Anonymous]

Hi, 5yes. I guess you’ve got to do what’s best for you psychologically as well as financially. I agree with you about not being able to decorate and/or feel comfortable doing it as a renter. I feel the same way. I really love having a home of my own and can’t wait to get one again.

I would think rents would go down more as prices go down. How much I don’t know.

[Author]

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