So I’m seriously thinking of jumping in

[Arraya]

Mortgage payments for Alt-A and option-ARM loans won’t hit the height of their scheduled -sharply upward- resets until 2010-11. Hence, unless home prices start rising soon and fast, these resets will drive up foreclosure and repossession numbers to levels even much higher than they are today.

IMO, This is the variable that will knock the shit out some of the more desirable areas of SD. How many homeowners back in 04-06 purchased something a little out of their range, with a time bomb loan, with hopes of either an increase in salary or skyrocketing equity to save them, all in the name of keeping up appearances. Now finding themselves with a shrinking job market, collapsing equity and financial system on the brink of implosion and facing a neg-am that is about to reset, like looking down a barrel of a shotgun. I’m sure quite a few people are sweating, cursing their significant other for running up the CCs and contemplating walking from their mortgage as I write this.

You can’t have it both ways: either sales go up OR prices go down. There will be no miracle that suddenly replenishes either people’s incomes or banks’ ability to lend, or both. The mounting job losses, of which there is no end in sight, only exacerbates they all ready horrendous state of the market.

The only possible conclusion that does not include a fairy tale or divine intervention, is that home prices will keep falling for years to come. If they stay high, there will be no buyers. And without buyers, prices will fall.

[carlsbadworker]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).
As for price, it will completely be determined by the magic hand. I think in some area, we already see demand meets the supply in the last two months. However, I do speculate that the demand will go lower as new mortgage regulation limits the amount of leverage people (many of them investors) can have to accumulate the houses, and the supply will go higher as the foreclosure pace heightens (although foreclosure rador does show that the foreclosure rate levels in the last 2 months, which will come to play toward the end of the year).
So in my particular case, I am expecting price to drop 20% (from the current level) in the area that I am interested in within a few months. Then I will jump. It may continue drop an extra 10-20% to reach the absolute bottom, but I can live with that. To answer SDrealtor’s question in my case, I currently live in 2-bedroom apartment but I will need to upgrade to a 3+ bedroom one sometime next year due to family reason. With my projected 20% future price drop and 20% down payment that I’d put down, buying sure looks much more attractive than renting.

[carlsbadworker]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).
As for price, it will completely be determined by the magic hand. I think in some area, we already see demand meets the supply in the last two months. However, I do speculate that the demand will go lower as new mortgage regulation limits the amount of leverage people (many of them investors) can have to accumulate the houses, and the supply will go higher as the foreclosure pace heightens (although foreclosure rador does show that the foreclosure rate levels in the last 2 months, which will come to play toward the end of the year).
So in my particular case, I am expecting price to drop 20% (from the current level) in the area that I am interested in within a few months. Then I will jump. It may continue drop an extra 10-20% to reach the absolute bottom, but I can live with that. To answer SDrealtor’s question in my case, I currently live in 2-bedroom apartment but I will need to upgrade to a 3+ bedroom one sometime next year due to family reason. With my projected 20% future price drop and 20% down payment that I’d put down, buying sure looks much more attractive than renting.

[carlsbadworker]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).
As for price, it will completely be determined by the magic hand. I think in some area, we already see demand meets the supply in the last two months. However, I do speculate that the demand will go lower as new mortgage regulation limits the amount of leverage people (many of them investors) can have to accumulate the houses, and the supply will go higher as the foreclosure pace heightens (although foreclosure rador does show that the foreclosure rate levels in the last 2 months, which will come to play toward the end of the year).
So in my particular case, I am expecting price to drop 20% (from the current level) in the area that I am interested in within a few months. Then I will jump. It may continue drop an extra 10-20% to reach the absolute bottom, but I can live with that. To answer SDrealtor’s question in my case, I currently live in 2-bedroom apartment but I will need to upgrade to a 3+ bedroom one sometime next year due to family reason. With my projected 20% future price drop and 20% down payment that I’d put down, buying sure looks much more attractive than renting.

[carlsbadworker]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).
As for price, it will completely be determined by the magic hand. I think in some area, we already see demand meets the supply in the last two months. However, I do speculate that the demand will go lower as new mortgage regulation limits the amount of leverage people (many of them investors) can have to accumulate the houses, and the supply will go higher as the foreclosure pace heightens (although foreclosure rador does show that the foreclosure rate levels in the last 2 months, which will come to play toward the end of the year).
So in my particular case, I am expecting price to drop 20% (from the current level) in the area that I am interested in within a few months. Then I will jump. It may continue drop an extra 10-20% to reach the absolute bottom, but I can live with that. To answer SDrealtor’s question in my case, I currently live in 2-bedroom apartment but I will need to upgrade to a 3+ bedroom one sometime next year due to family reason. With my projected 20% future price drop and 20% down payment that I’d put down, buying sure looks much more attractive than renting.

[carlsbadworker]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).
As for price, it will completely be determined by the magic hand. I think in some area, we already see demand meets the supply in the last two months. However, I do speculate that the demand will go lower as new mortgage regulation limits the amount of leverage people (many of them investors) can have to accumulate the houses, and the supply will go higher as the foreclosure pace heightens (although foreclosure rador does show that the foreclosure rate levels in the last 2 months, which will come to play toward the end of the year).
So in my particular case, I am expecting price to drop 20% (from the current level) in the area that I am interested in within a few months. Then I will jump. It may continue drop an extra 10-20% to reach the absolute bottom, but I can live with that. To answer SDrealtor’s question in my case, I currently live in 2-bedroom apartment but I will need to upgrade to a 3+ bedroom one sometime next year due to family reason. With my projected 20% future price drop and 20% down payment that I’d put down, buying sure looks much more attractive than renting.

[Arraya]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).

The bottom will be dictated by when the local economy bottoms out. I’m sure some people do walk away when they can make payments. This in no way means everybody has walked that is going to in any particular loan pool as obvious by the increasing rate of foreclosures. The Option ARM resets still will add downward pressure regardless of who walked already.

Job growth has just gone negative in SD and banks have just started failing nationwide. The dynamics of the financial situation is very similar to the one in the 30’s and all signs point to a prolonged DEFLATIONARY period. To what extent, is yet to be seen but thinking this will not affect prices beyond the scope of a normal boom/bust period is naive to say the least.

[Arraya]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).

The bottom will be dictated by when the local economy bottoms out. I’m sure some people do walk away when they can make payments. This in no way means everybody has walked that is going to in any particular loan pool as obvious by the increasing rate of foreclosures. The Option ARM resets still will add downward pressure regardless of who walked already.

Job growth has just gone negative in SD and banks have just started failing nationwide. The dynamics of the financial situation is very similar to the one in the 30’s and all signs point to a prolonged DEFLATIONARY period. To what extent, is yet to be seen but thinking this will not affect prices beyond the scope of a normal boom/bust period is naive to say the least.

[Arraya]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).

The bottom will be dictated by when the local economy bottoms out. I’m sure some people do walk away when they can make payments. This in no way means everybody has walked that is going to in any particular loan pool as obvious by the increasing rate of foreclosures. The Option ARM resets still will add downward pressure regardless of who walked already.

Job growth has just gone negative in SD and banks have just started failing nationwide. The dynamics of the financial situation is very similar to the one in the 30’s and all signs point to a prolonged DEFLATIONARY period. To what extent, is yet to be seen but thinking this will not affect prices beyond the scope of a normal boom/bust period is naive to say the least.

[Arraya]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).

The bottom will be dictated by when the local economy bottoms out. I’m sure some people do walk away when they can make payments. This in no way means everybody has walked that is going to in any particular loan pool as obvious by the increasing rate of foreclosures. The Option ARM resets still will add downward pressure regardless of who walked already.

Job growth has just gone negative in SD and banks have just started failing nationwide. The dynamics of the financial situation is very similar to the one in the 30’s and all signs point to a prolonged DEFLATIONARY period. To what extent, is yet to be seen but thinking this will not affect prices beyond the scope of a normal boom/bust period is naive to say the least.

[Arraya]

IMHO, option-ARM loans schedule is one of the misguided index to predict bottom of the housing market. The most important reason is that people are “walking from their mortgage as I write this”. When these people finding themselves owning more to the bank than their houses are worth, they have stopped paying their mortgage even though they could (I think I read statistics somewhere that support this).

The bottom will be dictated by when the local economy bottoms out. I’m sure some people do walk away when they can make payments. This in no way means everybody has walked that is going to in any particular loan pool as obvious by the increasing rate of foreclosures. The Option ARM resets still will add downward pressure regardless of who walked already.

Job growth has just gone negative in SD and banks have just started failing nationwide. The dynamics of the financial situation is very similar to the one in the 30’s and all signs point to a prolonged DEFLATIONARY period. To what extent, is yet to be seen but thinking this will not affect prices beyond the scope of a normal boom/bust period is naive to say the least.

[SD Realtor]

Carlsbadworker I definitely understand the family reasons for moving. If you gotta do it ya gotta do it. I am not so sure I agree with your prognostication of 10-20 percent decline in a few months but stranger things have happened. My stock advice is if the question is put in purely financial terms then no I would not recommend buying to anyone. Intnagibles such as family, lifestyle and or personal preferences have different priorities to different people.

Arraya as with all your other posts I agree with the above one you wrote for the most part. My only point of contention is an underestimation of divine intervention in the form of our nanny state. The more I keep hearing about bailouts the more I think we will be in this long slow japan like rut.

Let me ask you this, what happens if at least half of the upcoming 500 billion gets bailed out by the taxpayers in the form of principal adjustments where the lenders take the hit on the books but the FHA covers it.if Obama wins and the dems run the senate and house don’t you think something ugly will be passed? Today we saw a 300 billion towel.

Sorry for hijacking

[SD Realtor]

Carlsbadworker I definitely understand the family reasons for moving. If you gotta do it ya gotta do it. I am not so sure I agree with your prognostication of 10-20 percent decline in a few months but stranger things have happened. My stock advice is if the question is put in purely financial terms then no I would not recommend buying to anyone. Intnagibles such as family, lifestyle and or personal preferences have different priorities to different people.

Arraya as with all your other posts I agree with the above one you wrote for the most part. My only point of contention is an underestimation of divine intervention in the form of our nanny state. The more I keep hearing about bailouts the more I think we will be in this long slow japan like rut.

Let me ask you this, what happens if at least half of the upcoming 500 billion gets bailed out by the taxpayers in the form of principal adjustments where the lenders take the hit on the books but the FHA covers it.if Obama wins and the dems run the senate and house don’t you think something ugly will be passed? Today we saw a 300 billion towel.

Sorry for hijacking

[SD Realtor]

Carlsbadworker I definitely understand the family reasons for moving. If you gotta do it ya gotta do it. I am not so sure I agree with your prognostication of 10-20 percent decline in a few months but stranger things have happened. My stock advice is if the question is put in purely financial terms then no I would not recommend buying to anyone. Intnagibles such as family, lifestyle and or personal preferences have different priorities to different people.

Arraya as with all your other posts I agree with the above one you wrote for the most part. My only point of contention is an underestimation of divine intervention in the form of our nanny state. The more I keep hearing about bailouts the more I think we will be in this long slow japan like rut.

Let me ask you this, what happens if at least half of the upcoming 500 billion gets bailed out by the taxpayers in the form of principal adjustments where the lenders take the hit on the books but the FHA covers it.if Obama wins and the dems run the senate and house don’t you think something ugly will be passed? Today we saw a 300 billion towel.

Sorry for hijacking

[SD Realtor]

Carlsbadworker I definitely understand the family reasons for moving. If you gotta do it ya gotta do it. I am not so sure I agree with your prognostication of 10-20 percent decline in a few months but stranger things have happened. My stock advice is if the question is put in purely financial terms then no I would not recommend buying to anyone. Intnagibles such as family, lifestyle and or personal preferences have different priorities to different people.

Arraya as with all your other posts I agree with the above one you wrote for the most part. My only point of contention is an underestimation of divine intervention in the form of our nanny state. The more I keep hearing about bailouts the more I think we will be in this long slow japan like rut.

Let me ask you this, what happens if at least half of the upcoming 500 billion gets bailed out by the taxpayers in the form of principal adjustments where the lenders take the hit on the books but the FHA covers it.if Obama wins and the dems run the senate and house don’t you think something ugly will be passed? Today we saw a 300 billion towel.

Sorry for hijacking

[Author]

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