Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[NotCranky]

That being said, your comments without context appear to be ramblings of a ticked off dude.

Equalizer,
Thanks, I think?The context is there.Its around this blog, It’s around this profession or real estate sales, with it I am ticked off. Still I don’t want any excuses from myself for hitting sdr so hard.

[sdrealtor]

Russel
Its fine. I always post based upon what I see with the caveat that it is what I see and what others ee may be different. As bad as things are, tehy are nowhere near as dire right now as they should be. The efforts to slow this down are working. Inventory is constrained and supply is balanced against demand artifically. Is it case of the little dutch boy with his finger in the massive dike. Perhaps…….probably?????…who know?????

Time is what they are buying and time heals all wounds. How much time they can buy is the unknown. Whatever happens I’ll enjoy watching it roll out from a front row seat in what is a one of the most desireable upper middle class suburban real estate markets in America. I have spent my entire life in communities like this and have a very good handle on how they operate and who has how much moneyin the bank. There are lots of things you would be surprised at that I see every day. People wih huge net worths living humble lives well below their means. People with no net worths living extravagently well above their means. We’ve got it all here. I dont pretend to have the answers…ok so I pretend to occassionally…but either way it’s a great ride and I’m enjoying looking out the window.

hasta

[sdrealtor]

Russel
Its fine. I always post based upon what I see with the caveat that it is what I see and what others ee may be different. As bad as things are, tehy are nowhere near as dire right now as they should be. The efforts to slow this down are working. Inventory is constrained and supply is balanced against demand artifically. Is it case of the little dutch boy with his finger in the massive dike. Perhaps…….probably?????…who know?????

Time is what they are buying and time heals all wounds. How much time they can buy is the unknown. Whatever happens I’ll enjoy watching it roll out from a front row seat in what is a one of the most desireable upper middle class suburban real estate markets in America. I have spent my entire life in communities like this and have a very good handle on how they operate and who has how much moneyin the bank. There are lots of things you would be surprised at that I see every day. People wih huge net worths living humble lives well below their means. People with no net worths living extravagently well above their means. We’ve got it all here. I dont pretend to have the answers…ok so I pretend to occassionally…but either way it’s a great ride and I’m enjoying looking out the window.

hasta

[sdrealtor]

Russel
Its fine. I always post based upon what I see with the caveat that it is what I see and what others ee may be different. As bad as things are, tehy are nowhere near as dire right now as they should be. The efforts to slow this down are working. Inventory is constrained and supply is balanced against demand artifically. Is it case of the little dutch boy with his finger in the massive dike. Perhaps…….probably?????…who know?????

Time is what they are buying and time heals all wounds. How much time they can buy is the unknown. Whatever happens I’ll enjoy watching it roll out from a front row seat in what is a one of the most desireable upper middle class suburban real estate markets in America. I have spent my entire life in communities like this and have a very good handle on how they operate and who has how much moneyin the bank. There are lots of things you would be surprised at that I see every day. People wih huge net worths living humble lives well below their means. People with no net worths living extravagently well above their means. We’ve got it all here. I dont pretend to have the answers…ok so I pretend to occassionally…but either way it’s a great ride and I’m enjoying looking out the window.

hasta

[sdrealtor]

Russel
Its fine. I always post based upon what I see with the caveat that it is what I see and what others ee may be different. As bad as things are, tehy are nowhere near as dire right now as they should be. The efforts to slow this down are working. Inventory is constrained and supply is balanced against demand artifically. Is it case of the little dutch boy with his finger in the massive dike. Perhaps…….probably?????…who know?????

Time is what they are buying and time heals all wounds. How much time they can buy is the unknown. Whatever happens I’ll enjoy watching it roll out from a front row seat in what is a one of the most desireable upper middle class suburban real estate markets in America. I have spent my entire life in communities like this and have a very good handle on how they operate and who has how much moneyin the bank. There are lots of things you would be surprised at that I see every day. People wih huge net worths living humble lives well below their means. People with no net worths living extravagently well above their means. We’ve got it all here. I dont pretend to have the answers…ok so I pretend to occassionally…but either way it’s a great ride and I’m enjoying looking out the window.

hasta

[sdrealtor]

Russel
Its fine. I always post based upon what I see with the caveat that it is what I see and what others ee may be different. As bad as things are, tehy are nowhere near as dire right now as they should be. The efforts to slow this down are working. Inventory is constrained and supply is balanced against demand artifically. Is it case of the little dutch boy with his finger in the massive dike. Perhaps…….probably?????…who know?????

Time is what they are buying and time heals all wounds. How much time they can buy is the unknown. Whatever happens I’ll enjoy watching it roll out from a front row seat in what is a one of the most desireable upper middle class suburban real estate markets in America. I have spent my entire life in communities like this and have a very good handle on how they operate and who has how much moneyin the bank. There are lots of things you would be surprised at that I see every day. People wih huge net worths living humble lives well below their means. People with no net worths living extravagently well above their means. We’ve got it all here. I dont pretend to have the answers…ok so I pretend to occassionally…but either way it’s a great ride and I’m enjoying looking out the window.

hasta

[NotCranky]

sdr,… Then, as my kids would say…”you can have a piece of my birthday cake now”..

[NotCranky]

sdr,… Then, as my kids would say…”you can have a piece of my birthday cake now”..

[NotCranky]

sdr,… Then, as my kids would say…”you can have a piece of my birthday cake now”..

[NotCranky]

sdr,… Then, as my kids would say…”you can have a piece of my birthday cake now”..

[NotCranky]

sdr,… Then, as my kids would say…”you can have a piece of my birthday cake now”..

[sdrealtor]

Doesnt seem like there is much worthwhile to talk about around here so I thought it would be cool to revisit a legendary historic thread and update it. Here’s where we started and I follow it up with another post as to what actually happened:

The Original Post:

On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.). I’m not married to my opinion but beleive what I do based upon what I see in the markets I generally follow. Here’s my case:

Closed sales figures for the 1st 5 months of 2007 vs. prior years for Coastal SD from Point Loma through Carlsbad show that volume is not declining there.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1241 (still more late reporters coming)

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,696 sq ft $1,199,774 ($445/sq ft)

I only have inventory for a couple ZIP that I follow closely but it is way down vs. last year in these areas.

My problem stems from my inability to see how a pricing collapse would happen administratively. I just dont see people with equity dropping their acceptable prices form 850K to 750K or from 600K to 500K. I dont see the lenders doing it either with inventory levels where they are. I’m not saying it’s can’t happen, I would just like to here some theories as to how it could play out over the next 6 months so we can all kick them around.

[sdrealtor]

Doesnt seem like there is much worthwhile to talk about around here so I thought it would be cool to revisit a legendary historic thread and update it. Here’s where we started and I follow it up with another post as to what actually happened:

The Original Post:

On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.). I’m not married to my opinion but beleive what I do based upon what I see in the markets I generally follow. Here’s my case:

Closed sales figures for the 1st 5 months of 2007 vs. prior years for Coastal SD from Point Loma through Carlsbad show that volume is not declining there.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1241 (still more late reporters coming)

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,696 sq ft $1,199,774 ($445/sq ft)

I only have inventory for a couple ZIP that I follow closely but it is way down vs. last year in these areas.

My problem stems from my inability to see how a pricing collapse would happen administratively. I just dont see people with equity dropping their acceptable prices form 850K to 750K or from 600K to 500K. I dont see the lenders doing it either with inventory levels where they are. I’m not saying it’s can’t happen, I would just like to here some theories as to how it could play out over the next 6 months so we can all kick them around.

[sdrealtor]

Doesnt seem like there is much worthwhile to talk about around here so I thought it would be cool to revisit a legendary historic thread and update it. Here’s where we started and I follow it up with another post as to what actually happened:

The Original Post:

On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.). I’m not married to my opinion but beleive what I do based upon what I see in the markets I generally follow. Here’s my case:

Closed sales figures for the 1st 5 months of 2007 vs. prior years for Coastal SD from Point Loma through Carlsbad show that volume is not declining there.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1241 (still more late reporters coming)

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,696 sq ft $1,199,774 ($445/sq ft)

I only have inventory for a couple ZIP that I follow closely but it is way down vs. last year in these areas.

My problem stems from my inability to see how a pricing collapse would happen administratively. I just dont see people with equity dropping their acceptable prices form 850K to 750K or from 600K to 500K. I dont see the lenders doing it either with inventory levels where they are. I’m not saying it’s can’t happen, I would just like to here some theories as to how it could play out over the next 6 months so we can all kick them around.

[sdrealtor]

Doesnt seem like there is much worthwhile to talk about around here so I thought it would be cool to revisit a legendary historic thread and update it. Here’s where we started and I follow it up with another post as to what actually happened:

The Original Post:

On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.). I’m not married to my opinion but beleive what I do based upon what I see in the markets I generally follow. Here’s my case:

Closed sales figures for the 1st 5 months of 2007 vs. prior years for Coastal SD from Point Loma through Carlsbad show that volume is not declining there.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1241 (still more late reporters coming)

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,696 sq ft $1,199,774 ($445/sq ft)

I only have inventory for a couple ZIP that I follow closely but it is way down vs. last year in these areas.

My problem stems from my inability to see how a pricing collapse would happen administratively. I just dont see people with equity dropping their acceptable prices form 850K to 750K or from 600K to 500K. I dont see the lenders doing it either with inventory levels where they are. I’m not saying it’s can’t happen, I would just like to here some theories as to how it could play out over the next 6 months so we can all kick them around.

[Author]

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