Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[gold_dredger_phd]

You forgot to factor in:

1. Bird flu pandemic.
2. War with China.
3. Nuclear 9/11

The first one should lead to a glut of unsold real estate for lack of living buyers.

The second one should lead to cheap real estate on the West Coast and a renaissance in the manufacturing industries in this country and the bankruptcy of Wal-Mart.

The third one is wild card and it depends what country it occurs in.

[sdrealtor]

Russ,
For the record, my prediction for 2007 (made in late 2006 and reiterated dozens of times throughout 2007 on this blog) was a drop in prices between 5 to 10% in the areas I follow with the vast majority of that decline occuring between September and December. I think my record of forecasting stands strong as I was spot on again.

In the last 2 or 3 weeks, recent sales have shown some decent sized drops in North County. Defintely larger drops than we have been seeing. When I checked several of the nice communities in my area, I find virtually nothing in escrow in any of them. I think this shows the price declines we just saw in a handful of sales are not an aberation. Last year I did not believe prices would fall in the Spring and would suffer only late in the year. Thats what happened. Based upon what I see today, I believe prices will decline steadily throughout the year in my area. I’m looking for another 5 to 10% hit this year with a bias toward the the higher end of the range.

[sdrealtor]

Russ,
For the record, my prediction for 2007 (made in late 2006 and reiterated dozens of times throughout 2007 on this blog) was a drop in prices between 5 to 10% in the areas I follow with the vast majority of that decline occuring between September and December. I think my record of forecasting stands strong as I was spot on again.

In the last 2 or 3 weeks, recent sales have shown some decent sized drops in North County. Defintely larger drops than we have been seeing. When I checked several of the nice communities in my area, I find virtually nothing in escrow in any of them. I think this shows the price declines we just saw in a handful of sales are not an aberation. Last year I did not believe prices would fall in the Spring and would suffer only late in the year. Thats what happened. Based upon what I see today, I believe prices will decline steadily throughout the year in my area. I’m looking for another 5 to 10% hit this year with a bias toward the the higher end of the range.

[sdrealtor]

Russ,
For the record, my prediction for 2007 (made in late 2006 and reiterated dozens of times throughout 2007 on this blog) was a drop in prices between 5 to 10% in the areas I follow with the vast majority of that decline occuring between September and December. I think my record of forecasting stands strong as I was spot on again.

In the last 2 or 3 weeks, recent sales have shown some decent sized drops in North County. Defintely larger drops than we have been seeing. When I checked several of the nice communities in my area, I find virtually nothing in escrow in any of them. I think this shows the price declines we just saw in a handful of sales are not an aberation. Last year I did not believe prices would fall in the Spring and would suffer only late in the year. Thats what happened. Based upon what I see today, I believe prices will decline steadily throughout the year in my area. I’m looking for another 5 to 10% hit this year with a bias toward the the higher end of the range.

[sdrealtor]

Russ,
For the record, my prediction for 2007 (made in late 2006 and reiterated dozens of times throughout 2007 on this blog) was a drop in prices between 5 to 10% in the areas I follow with the vast majority of that decline occuring between September and December. I think my record of forecasting stands strong as I was spot on again.

In the last 2 or 3 weeks, recent sales have shown some decent sized drops in North County. Defintely larger drops than we have been seeing. When I checked several of the nice communities in my area, I find virtually nothing in escrow in any of them. I think this shows the price declines we just saw in a handful of sales are not an aberation. Last year I did not believe prices would fall in the Spring and would suffer only late in the year. Thats what happened. Based upon what I see today, I believe prices will decline steadily throughout the year in my area. I’m looking for another 5 to 10% hit this year with a bias toward the the higher end of the range.

[sdrealtor]

Russ,
For the record, my prediction for 2007 (made in late 2006 and reiterated dozens of times throughout 2007 on this blog) was a drop in prices between 5 to 10% in the areas I follow with the vast majority of that decline occuring between September and December. I think my record of forecasting stands strong as I was spot on again.

In the last 2 or 3 weeks, recent sales have shown some decent sized drops in North County. Defintely larger drops than we have been seeing. When I checked several of the nice communities in my area, I find virtually nothing in escrow in any of them. I think this shows the price declines we just saw in a handful of sales are not an aberation. Last year I did not believe prices would fall in the Spring and would suffer only late in the year. Thats what happened. Based upon what I see today, I believe prices will decline steadily throughout the year in my area. I’m looking for another 5 to 10% hit this year with a bias toward the the higher end of the range.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[sdrealtor]

Denverite,
FWIW we are already down at least 15% off peak in my corner of SD. Two more 5 to 10% down years and we’ll be about 30% off peak which has been my opinion for the more desireable an/or established areas in SD.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Denverite,
FWIW we are already down at least 15% off peak in my corner of SD. Two more 5 to 10% down years and we’ll be about 30% off peak which has been my opinion for the more desireable an/or established areas in SD.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Denverite,
FWIW we are already down at least 15% off peak in my corner of SD. Two more 5 to 10% down years and we’ll be about 30% off peak which has been my opinion for the more desireable an/or established areas in SD.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Denverite,
FWIW we are already down at least 15% off peak in my corner of SD. Two more 5 to 10% down years and we’ll be about 30% off peak which has been my opinion for the more desireable an/or established areas in SD.

sdr

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