Should Young People Leave California?

[mydogsarelazy]

Hi Everyone,

My family has plenty of roots in California — I am an 8th generation Californian on my Mother’s side — and I despite the problems here I can’t quite imagine being in any other state.

However, when my daughters reach adulthood I really doubt that they will want to stay here. Even if the real estate market corrects bigtime, as so many on this board are predicting, California seems a vey difficult place for young people to establish themselves and start their adult lives.

I say this as a college professor who talks to students daily about their plans and problems. My current students feel very apprehensive about the cost of living here, not to mention a million other things.

Have your adult children moved out of state? Where would you advise someone to go? Any of you have young adults in the family trying to get established? Some of you are young adults, right? How is California looking to all of you as a place to build a life?

JS

[an]

I’m 26, so I think I’m qualified in the the young people category. All of my family, both dad and mom side, are Californian, so I have deep roots here too. I don’t find San Diego or California to be very hard to create root here. You just have to think much longer term than 1-2 years. If you look back, even 10 years ago, if you graduated 10 years ago, you can buy a house and survive on 1 income. Only if you buy at the peak where you’ll NEED 2 income to survive. So if you are patient and rent through the peak, the bottom will come again. Right now, I can rent and survive on 1 income. When the bottom comes, I can probably buy a house on 1 income as well and live comfortably. It’s all about timing. Don’t get caught up in the hype and you’ll be just fine. If you graduated in 1995, then you can buy a house in 1-2 years, while if you graduated in 2002 like myself, you just have to wait a little longer, like 5-6 years. But there’s no such thing as being priced out for ever. Things will get back to fundamental, which is supported by income.

[vegasrenter]

I’m a displaced California native – I graduated HS in 1981 and moved to Texas in 1988 when the defense business tanked. My extended family all live in California, and I would like to move back.

It’s hard to forsee a crash in the California real estate market severe enough that I could afford to move back (and buy, not rent) on my Civil Engineering salary. In retrospect, I could have stretched and done it in the mid-90’s but California housing looked outrageously expensive to me at that time, as nice houses in beautiful Sugar Land, Texas zoned for exemplary public schools were selling for a third of (at the market bottom) California prices. Like a dummy, I bought a Texas house, because it seemed like a wiser financial decision.

[Diego Mamani]

Once again, I agree with AN. This is something I heard before, around 1990, to be exact. “We’re moving to Spokane, Wash.” was one phrase. The other one was “some folks owe more than what their house is worth, so they just leave the keys behind and walk away”. I’m sure both phrases were a result of the residential RE market peaking in 1989. And now 2006 is like 1990 all over again, and I get to hear the same things again. Geez… I’m only 41 but I feel like I’m 140 years old with all this cyclical markets and feelings that keep replaying!

[poorgradstudent]

I’m 27, and in grad school. Should be done with my PhD in not TOO long (knock on wood). I have no roots in California.

My girlfriend is in law school. We’re putting off marriage and children, as much for personal preferences as professional and financial. Assuming I can find a decent biotech job in San Diego, between our two incomes we should easily be able to rent here. And by the time we’re ready to buy, it should be close to the bottom of the market, based on what I’ve learned from this board.

I think San Diego is a very difficult city for non-professionals or single income households. But I don’t think it’s unreasonable for couples where both work, and have no or one child.

Prices will come down, and the city will become more affordable. But it likely will always be more expensive than places like Minneapolis.

[an]

I agree that it will always be more expensive than most part of the US, but I still firmly believe that once again, people can live in San Diego and survive on just one income and be able to buy a house. I know someone who bought a house in 1995 (@ or near the bottom), have 4 kids, a stay @ home mom & 1 electronics technician salary. So, not so long ago, 1 below average income house hold can buy a house. That day will be back again. Of course they can’t afford to go on fancy vacation, but they do take road trips and the kids have everything they need & want(toys & computer for every kid). It’s all about money management and a little luck on your side(needing to buy a home @ the bottom of the market).

[santeeman]

I am 40 and have been worrying for years that my children will not be able to afford to live here and have to move away… my niece @ SDSU is going to finish school in Arizona because it’s cheaper and she can maybe afford to buy something after she graduates and is making “great money”….my bestfriend’s daughter graduated college a couple of years ago and was planning to relocate there too and do the same thing. She didn’t and is living with mom and dad, but, doesn’t that seem a shame.Kids are worried about buying a home before they are even out of school! You can live where it’s cheap here, like say Julian, or Campo(yes they can be expensive too) but what a hike and now that rents are probably gonna skyrocket now that everyone will be forced out into the rental market due to forclosure! I am thinking about relocating to Reno, it’s more expensive than most but seems to have a lot to offer like San Diego and it is a hell of a lot cheaper than here. My kids won’t have to move away to survive!

[DrHousingBubble]

This issue strikes a personal cord with me. I’m in my mid 20s and have a graduate degree. I earn over the median income of the area but find a hard time purchasing a property without devastating my monthly cash-flow. This is probably the issue many of us have. And someone commented that if we graduated anytime between 1993-1999 we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. For one, I do believe in real estate market cycles from an economic standpoint. Market speculation takes time to travel through the appropriate channels. In my view, we are only at the tip of the current real estate down turn. The media is still somewhat bullish on real estate although they have soften up a bit lately (I guess doom doesn’t sell to well!). Reminds me of the stock analyst recommending 98% of all stocks shortly before the technology bust we had in 2000.

In regards to San Diego or any part of California being a good place for young professionals, my answer would have to be depends. California is a great place to earn a sizable income. To be honest, with a degree in hand you can get a job almost instantaneously earning above the U.S. median income. The thing is, everything is relative. If you are young and starting out your career, this is what I would recommend (not only do I recommend it, I’m living it). I believe the market will bottom in three to four years (so 2009 or 2010). Since many of us are still wet behind the ears in our professions, we should focus on doing what we love and progressing upward. Save as much as you can by renting. If you own then you are way ahead of the curve. Invest your money in different products and set aside enough for a down payment – your goal should be $40,000 for a down payment in 4 years which is very doable. If the market by those times is not relatively affordable, what I mean a ratio of (your income X 3.5 or 4) then it is time to pack up and go. I’m assuming many will want to eventually have a family with good schools available. So if this is the case, you will have:

• 4 to 5 years of professional experience in your profession making you a somewhat seasoned individual.
• $40,000 in down payment monies (minimum)
• The ability to take your California dollars else where

This is a win-win in my view. If California is over valued then the choice is simple, pack up and go east. You can pick many nice cities where $40,000 will go an extremely long way. If California is within your pricing range, then it is time to buy and you will be earning more as well due to raises plus COLA. Seems like a plan. Anyone doing this or something similar?

[sdrealtor]

Is it just me or do people seem overly preoccupied with owning real estate at relatively young ages. Personally, I never thought about owning RE until I was 30, married and settled into a place I knew I wanted to stay forever. Owning RE was just too limiting in regards to mobility. When I was in my 20’s it was all about building my career, laying down financial building blocks, finding a wife and figuring out where I wanted to live. Owning a house couldnt have been further from my mind.

If I was in my 20’s again, I would go wherever my career took me and would focus on building that whereever it might be. If my career took me elsewhere, I would set a goal of coming back to SD when I had that figured out.

[Carlsbadliving]

I’m 29, not orginally from CA, been here about 3 years. Married with the first kid on the way. Double income with about 100k ready for a downpayment. Would love to fall back to one income once the kid comes. Will most likely relocate to Wash. state within a year, mostly for family reasons. The wife is originally from there. I guess for us, California was just a stop over. I think if things hadn’t gotten so out of control while we were here, we would have more strongly considered staying here. We both like it here, it just comes down to cost of living of family. If we stayed here, we’d both have to keep working, while a move to Wash will hopefully afford my wife to stop working and we’ll also have family support to help with the kid. And I’m sure that we’ll still be looking at least another year of renting there as well waiting for that marekt to bottom out.

[studenteconomist]

I’m 27, at least for one more day and I will be graduating with my PhD in exactly one month from UCSD. I moved here from Washington because of the biotech possibilities here, as well as the lifestyle. Five years later I can say other things are more important now. I am leaving CA, as most of my friends have already done for the last 6 months. My wife has family here, but I don’t. We decided that our lives will be much better moving to a place that is colder but cheaper. Considering the stress of trying to earn that extra 20% to live in a decent sized house, it really is not that attractive of a lifestyle to live in CA for someone in my situation, in my opinion. I have found that looking for a job in biotech is not easy, even with an MBA, and being flexible about moving is the only way of getting a job paying what you are worth with a PhD. To poorgradstudent, good luck getting that biotech position, it won’t be easy here unless you think post-doc salaries (40k).
I think young adults (20s) with graduate degrees here are struggling a lot more than most people think, and would probably be happier somewhere else. San Diego’s loss is other cities gain, I guess.

[bubba99]

For families with “deep roots” in California, staying is an easier choice than for out of state transplants. The family has a number of overpriced housed in California, and has reaped some large profits from selling others. The existing properties, and profits provide a basis for our children to stay in the state.

When my daughter finishes her Phd at Berkeley, we will find the money for a down payment on property in California if that is what she wants – even if it is in the very overpriced city of Berkeley. I have tried living in other states and cannot imagine that prices would drive a Californian to the cold of Chicago, or the humidity of Texas, or the . . . of the south.

Just in San Diego we have UCSD, San Diego State, Scripts Institute and a hundred miles north, UCLA, USC, Cal Tech and many others. The level of education taken for granted in California dwarfs any other area I have been reluctantly transfered to over the years.

[PerryChase]

I think it’s a question of financial management and prioritizing what you want in life. Different people value different things so that’s what makes life interesting.

People in San Diego bemoan not being able to afford a SFR on decent lot. New Yorkers want an apartment with a doorman.

To me, it’s a question of priority and making peace with what you can afford.

[startingout]

Being 24, I think I can count myself in the “young” age bracket. Just as background, I’ve lived in CA all my life, come from a very small family, and have a bachelor’s degree(have to figure out what I want to do in life before going graduate). My husband is an Irish immigrant who’s been here for 3 years. No kids yet. We have a household income around $85k (not too bad for youngfolk, right?).

We have both seriously considered moving out of California several times, and not just because of the housing market. We frequently become frustrated with the traffic, crowds, pollution, crime, school system, and cost of living. There are of course advantages to living in Cali (things to do and see, beach, mountains, lots of concerts, culture, etc.). Of course, our perspective may be slightly skewed because 1) we live in the Inland Empire 2)after spending much time in Ireland with my husband’s family, I’ve seen how great a place other than CA can really be. If the housing market doesn’t get better, and we aren’t able to afford at least a small home in a good neighborhood on what I think is a respectable income, I can say we probably will move out of CA. Providing a safe place for my future children to grow up will be my first priority.

As for younger and younger people getting into real estate, and being frustrated when they aren’t able to, I think it has a lot to do with expectations: those we have for ourselves, and those our parents have of us. I know that for me and my friends, growing up we were always told that all you needed to do was go to college and get a degree, and you’d be so successful that you’d never have to worry about money or buying a house- they would just fall into your lap. And we came to believe it. My mother still treats me that way, and can’t understand why I don’t make more money or own a home- afterall, I got a degree!

To be fair, I think times have changed. I don’t think that generations before mine had it easy. But I do think that for generations before mine, if you made middle class income you could at least buy a decent house without breaking the bank. Now if you’re middle class and you want to buy without breaking the bank, all you’ll get for your money is either a shoddy condo conversion or an old run-down shack in and area crawling with gangs.

[no_such_reality]

I never did get that. Why everybody crowds into the IE. I mean, once you’re in the California high-desert, why not just go to Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Texas? Why put up with California’s prices, crowds, tax and problems when you’re living in the desert?

[Author]

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