Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Sheer blindness
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FlyerInHi.
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March 30, 2020 at 5:57 PM #816066March 30, 2020 at 7:25 PM #816067
svelteParticipant[quote=Gunslinger]
The weak that walk among us require tough love. Jesus has always been my savior. Got a problem with that hoss?[/quote]
You’re just peachy keen in my book, sweetie!
March 30, 2020 at 9:34 PM #816070sdrealtor
ParticipantWhat is going on here?
What happened to talking about real estate around here? We are finally entering interesting times again. I will try to post an update on the main thread.
March 30, 2020 at 11:49 PM #816071outtamojo
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]What is going on here?
What happened to talking about real estate around here? We are finally entering interesting times again. I will try to post an update on the main thread.[/quote]
Are we going to have a meltdown in commercial real estate? How about residential? Inquiring minds want to know!
March 31, 2020 at 12:50 AM #816072ucodegen
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=scaredyclassic]efficient market theory would disagree, but I have no idea what reality is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
[/quote]Yeah… that’s what they taught me first economics class in college.
I think the markets are more about momentum.
Like the invisible hand in allocating resources. Not that efficient right now, haha[/quote]
The way that Warren Buffet put it is;- In the short term, the market is a voting machine. (momentum)
- In the long term, the market is a weighing machine. (efficient)
So that means it may be both. Not everybody in the market is logical. They see a stock, sounds good, sounds like a familiar name, and it is going up!.. so buy some. They don’t bother with looking at the financials. The PE ends up at 100, but revenue growth is at 5% and profit margin is unchanged. They stay in the stock. The increase in the price of the stock slows down – but they feel better times are ahead! Stock price tops out, starts to go down – but they feel it will resume going up and don’t double check valuation. Price is now in free fall and of course it will turn around. They have had the stock for 3 years and the true valuation is about 15% more than they paid for it. Now the stock price crashes through the +15% over cost valuation and head for their buy-in price. They panic and sell (capitulation) at about 2% below their buy in price. The stock continues down an additional 10%.. bottoms and moves in a flat line for a bit then starts going up. The emotional investor is to scared to buy because they don’t look at valuation and instead just looks at the movement of the stock price. Stock price continues to rise and goes past the +15% valuation (true valuation) of the company and the emotional investor starts worrying that they are getting left behind and that the ‘train has left the station’. They end up jumping on, buying the stock at 19% above true valuation… rinse and repeat (selling at 10% below true valuation again).
I have seen it so many times… I have had colleagues ask about how I have managed to save for retirement and I tell them. They ask for suggestions, I give them some basic mutual fund advice, but they don’t act on it until more than 5 years later at the top of the market (fearing they would be left behind), and they panic and buy in at the top… then as it drops, they panic and sell, sometimes below buy in. Of course they get angry at me and I ask when did they buy, and why didn’t they buy when I suggested? Why didn’t they tell me that they were going to buy the fund right before they actually bought it. I also don’t give them any more suggestions, even when asked. They don’t have to stomach for the volatility.
To succeed at stock investing, you generally need to be calm and have a ‘cast iron stomach’. You need to realize that the cattle herd moves to stock around violently sometimes and in fact, that might give you opportunities .. and a chance to pick up some ‘steak’…
flu – remember earlier this year when I said that this market downturn might have some ‘legs’ on it?..
March 31, 2020 at 10:04 AM #816074scaredyclassic
Participant[quote=ucodegen][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=scaredyclassic]efficient market theory would disagree, but I have no idea what reality is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
[/quote]Yeah… that’s what they taught me first economics class in college.
I think the markets are more about momentum.
Like the invisible hand in allocating resources. Not that efficient right now, haha[/quote]
The way that Warren Buffet put it is;- In the short term, the market is a voting machine. (momentum)
- In the long term, the market is a weighing machine. (efficient)
So that means it may be both. Not everybody in the market is logical. They see a stock, sounds good, sounds like a familiar name, and it is going up!.. so buy some. They don’t bother with looking at the financials. The PE ends up at 100, but revenue growth is at 5% and profit margin is unchanged. They stay in the stock. The increase in the price of the stock slows down – but they feel better times are ahead! Stock price tops out, starts to go down – but they feel it will resume going up and don’t double check valuation. Price is now in free fall and of course it will turn around. They have had the stock for 3 years and the true valuation is about 15% more than they paid for it. Now the stock price crashes through the +15% over cost valuation and head for their buy-in price. They panic and sell (capitulation) at about 2% below their buy in price. The stock continues down an additional 10%.. bottoms and moves in a flat line for a bit then starts going up. The emotional investor is to scared to buy because they don’t look at valuation and instead just looks at the movement of the stock price. Stock price continues to rise and goes past the +15% valuation (true valuation) of the company and the emotional investor starts worrying that they are getting left behind and that the ‘train has left the station’. They end up jumping on, buying the stock at 19% above true valuation… rinse and repeat (selling at 10% below true valuation again).
I have seen it so many times… I have had colleagues ask about how I have managed to save for retirement and I tell them. They ask for suggestions, I give them some basic mutual fund advice, but they don’t act on it until more than 5 years later at the top of the market (fearing they would be left behind), and they panic and buy in at the top… then as it drops, they panic and sell, sometimes below buy in. Of course they get angry at me and I ask when did they buy, and why didn’t they buy when I suggested? Why didn’t they tell me that they were going to buy the fund right before they actually bought it. I also don’t give them any more suggestions, even when asked. They don’t have to stomach for the volatility.
To succeed at stock investing, you generally need to be calm and have a ‘cast iron stomach’. You need to realize that the cattle herd moves to stock around violently sometimes and in fact, that might give you opportunities .. and a chance to pick up some ‘steak’…
flu – remember earlier this year when I said that this market downturn might have some ‘legs’ on it?..[/quote]
Well. Maybe.
But doesnt that assume that conditions for growth stay roughly similar? You seem to say theres an objective right price that the market eventually moves toward, and fools chase higher prices.
But what if instead of a 2 trillion stimulus we have a 200 trillion stimulus. Or there is some other shock to the system that recalibrated what earnings might be in number terms
March 31, 2020 at 7:06 PM #816081Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]
Well. Maybe.
But doesnt that assume that conditions for growth stay roughly similar? You seem to say theres an objective right price that the market eventually moves toward, and fools chase higher prices.
But what if instead of a 2 trillion stimulus we have a 200 trillion stimulus. Or there is some other shock to the system that recalibrated what earnings might be in number terms[/quote]
The market does not move ‘toward’ the accurate valuation – but about it; sometimes higher, sometimes lower.There are always shocks to the system that can ‘adjust’ or change the earnings and performance of a company. Volatility occurs almost proportionate to the unknowns. The trick is to figure out how much the shock will actually change the earnings. Nothings constant except change.
When confronted with the unknown, I discount the valuation for by the unknown, trying to bound how much is uncertain. I do take ‘jumps of faith’ on some, however I severely restrict how much I buy.
March 31, 2020 at 9:34 PM #816088Participant[quote=outtamojo][quote=sdrealtor]What is going on here?
What happened to talking about real estate around here? We are finally entering interesting times again. I will try to post an update on the main thread.[/quote]
Are we going to have a meltdown in commercial real estate? How about residential? Inquiring minds want to know![/quote]
Check main thread on home page
April 21, 2020 at 6:44 AM #816737Participant[quote=ucodegen][quote=scaredyclassic]
Well. Maybe.
But doesnt that assume that conditions for growth stay roughly similar? You seem to say theres an objective right price that the market eventually moves toward, and fools chase higher prices.
But what if instead of a 2 trillion stimulus we have a 200 trillion stimulus. Or there is some other shock to the system that recalibrated what earnings might be in number terms[/quote]
The market does not move ‘toward’ the accurate valuation – but about it; sometimes higher, sometimes lower.There are always shocks to the system that can ‘adjust’ or change the earnings and performance of a company. Volatility occurs almost proportionate to the unknowns. The trick is to figure out how much the shock will actually change the earnings. Nothings constant except change.
When confronted with the unknown, I discount the valuation for by the unknown, trying to bound how much is uncertain. I do take ‘jumps of faith’ on some, however I severely restrict how much I buy.[/quote]
So is oil worth zero, given its negative externalities, and we are just moving that value , plus 30, minus 30.?
Seriously, how does one discount valuation when oil goes this negative. Or maybe this is bullish for growth. We will pay you to mindlessly drive to the mall…April 21, 2020 at 10:20 AM #816753FlyerInHi
Guest[quote=outtamojo][quote=sdrealtor]What is going on here?
What happened to talking about real estate around here? We are finally entering interesting times again. I will try to post an update on the main thread.[/quote]
Are we going to have a meltdown in commercial real estate? How about residential? Inquiring minds want to know![/quote]
Of course we are. The question is by how much.
The market is frozen right now. But as the recession takes hold, and the financial ramifications become apparent, real estate will be hit.sdrealtor’s posts are meaningless sales stats that don’t reflect the future. People are shell-shocked right now and sellers aren’t selling.
April 21, 2020 at 1:24 PM #816759GuestThe implosion of WeWork will have dire consequences for commercial real estate.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-20/softbank-says-wework-ex-ceo-intends-to-sue-over-failed-share-buyRetail will be hit hard. Covid is pushing people who heretofore didn’t like to shop online into the digital age.
In the short to medium term, residential in the top 10 metros will be hit as urban migration slows or reverses.
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