Shadow Inventory – The Flood that May Never Come

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=briansd1][quote=XBoxBoy] The asset holders are probably wealthy, but the ones who owe lots of money are just as likely to be poor or middle class as wealthy.[/quote]

You’re wrong here. Wealthy people owe a lot of money. They got rich thanks to leverage, especially if they did so in just one generation.

Leverage can send rich folks to the poor house just like leverage made them rich.

[/quote]

Ummmm…. I think you misread what I wrote… I think it clearly says that people who owe money can be poor, or middle class or wealthy.

Also, I will take exception with your blanket statement “Wealthy people owe a lot of money” if by that you mean All wealthy people. Some wealthy people do owe a lot of money. Some do not. I personally know a couple of very wealthy people that don’t have any debt whatsoever.

For what it’s worth, most people that I’ve known who got rich in one generation did so by starting their own company and making a success out of that. Leverage had very little to do with it. I’m sure it’s different on wall street but by no means is wall street the only road to wealth.

XBoxBoy

[jpinpb]

[quote=ibjames]I’m sure jpinpb can find some listings for you that haven’t made it to market[/quote]

I can and there are. If you go to SDL and do a search on a few ZIP codes, I noted in the comments section of the particular property:

“NOD filed, but not listed.”

And there are many. The ZIPs I watch are 92109, 92110, 92117, 92037, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I don’t track condos in all the ZIPs, but I do on SFH and I’m quite certain that there were many places that had NODs that weren’t even listed or attempting to sell.

Now, since there, a handful have listed. But the others are twisting in the wind.

[jpinpb]

[quote=ibjames]I’m sure jpinpb can find some listings for you that haven’t made it to market[/quote]

I can and there are. If you go to SDL and do a search on a few ZIP codes, I noted in the comments section of the particular property:

“NOD filed, but not listed.”

And there are many. The ZIPs I watch are 92109, 92110, 92117, 92037, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I don’t track condos in all the ZIPs, but I do on SFH and I’m quite certain that there were many places that had NODs that weren’t even listed or attempting to sell.

Now, since there, a handful have listed. But the others are twisting in the wind.

[jpinpb]

[quote=ibjames]I’m sure jpinpb can find some listings for you that haven’t made it to market[/quote]

I can and there are. If you go to SDL and do a search on a few ZIP codes, I noted in the comments section of the particular property:

“NOD filed, but not listed.”

And there are many. The ZIPs I watch are 92109, 92110, 92117, 92037, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I don’t track condos in all the ZIPs, but I do on SFH and I’m quite certain that there were many places that had NODs that weren’t even listed or attempting to sell.

Now, since there, a handful have listed. But the others are twisting in the wind.

[jpinpb]

[quote=ibjames]I’m sure jpinpb can find some listings for you that haven’t made it to market[/quote]

I can and there are. If you go to SDL and do a search on a few ZIP codes, I noted in the comments section of the particular property:

“NOD filed, but not listed.”

And there are many. The ZIPs I watch are 92109, 92110, 92117, 92037, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I don’t track condos in all the ZIPs, but I do on SFH and I’m quite certain that there were many places that had NODs that weren’t even listed or attempting to sell.

Now, since there, a handful have listed. But the others are twisting in the wind.

[jpinpb]

[quote=ibjames]I’m sure jpinpb can find some listings for you that haven’t made it to market[/quote]

I can and there are. If you go to SDL and do a search on a few ZIP codes, I noted in the comments section of the particular property:

“NOD filed, but not listed.”

And there are many. The ZIPs I watch are 92109, 92110, 92117, 92037, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I don’t track condos in all the ZIPs, but I do on SFH and I’m quite certain that there were many places that had NODs that weren’t even listed or attempting to sell.

Now, since there, a handful have listed. But the others are twisting in the wind.

[PadreBrian]

Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market.

[PadreBrian]

Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market.

[PadreBrian]

Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market.

[PadreBrian]

Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market.

[PadreBrian]

Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[Author]

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