SFH price: 25~30% off from 2005?

[newcomer]

Mostly relying on the county records, here is my 24 months prices trend chart on a converted townhomes complex. [img_assist|nid=4677|title=price trend|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=215]

I use the townhomes for the study simply because the properties are easily comparable – having similar location/orientation, their floor plans are exactly the same. Every property might have its own upgrades, but no significant differences in general.

1) The prices had been adjusted 25-30% off their peak;
2) They are now around their median price (based on ~130 sales), @ ~20% off the peak

Attached homes might be less vulnerable (due to the supply/demand?), but they have already been adjusted ~20% (25% or more, if consider some sales incentives). When is the time for detached homes to drop 25-30% from the peak, say, from 700K in y05 to 500K or less?

To those of you who are actively involved in this market or have the access to the sales database, what is your observation so far, and your anticipation?

[SD Realtor]

Good post newcomer. Personally I have witnessed attached housing declines on the order of what you have posted above. Do you mind if I ask you which complex you gathered the data from? At any rate kudos for a good post… in some parts of the county detached homes have indeed matched the declines. Up in Murrieta the declines even exceed these amounts. Other hard hit areas for detached include Eastlake/Otay, Escondido, El Cajon, just to name a few.

SD Realtor

[newcomer]

The complex is in Carmel Valley, 2 bedrooms, 2-1/2 bath with 2 attached garages. Looking at the trend chart the prices are bouncing back to their median level(~130 data samples), does it mean the “correction” was over or just a new cycle to start with?
As a newcomer, I wish the SHF price be dropping to y2001~02 level, but the reality seems telling me we are not getting close to, not even 15% off the peak yet for SFH in CV area…

[SD Realtor]

Nothing ever goes straight up or straight down. Yeah it appears to have gained some momentum but I would not fret over it.

Unfortunately as many would like the cycle to go down hard and fast, that is simply not how it works.

You will have to be patient. There are other plenty of condos in 92130 that will drop substantially in price.

SD Realtor

PS – Not that this affects the numbers much but I would gather that the sales that were more recent as opposed to less recent could have had some sort of credits for the buyer as well…

[stockstradr]

First, I’m glad you posted this data. I did the same for our old complex, but it was a smaller complex so less data points.

My question; how do you know the “peak” was sept 2005?

I suggest you run your data back to at least mid-2004. The peak pricing on our Rancho Bernardo condo was mid-2004. The condos peaked much earlier than the SFH’s. I think your data range may not extend far back enough in time to catch the peak.

[newcomer]

Good question, stockstradr. The properties in this complex were converted in mid 2005 and first sold in September, no individual sales history before Sept 2005. I fully agree with you the condos peaked earlier than the SFH’s, the same should be the bottom. Hope the trending on condors could tell us some hints – more or less, on SFHs in near future.

SD Realtor, yes, I would like to gather more recent sales data . The new sales might not affects the median number much, but they could change the trending curve which is more critical. Unfortunately the county records which I mostly rely on always posts some delays.

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