SD prices post fires

[NotCranky]

bsrsharma,
You may be right but I can’t get over the idea that what you are saying is gambling.

The real advantage I see for Raptor Duck is that he is coming from a higher priced region to a lower and he guarantees that he benefits from this by buying a cheaper house…not a bigger and equally or more expensive one.There is no gamble involved with that, he becomes finacially more secure. As he said though, we all march to a different drummer.

Raptorduck,
I forget if you got the admonition to rent that most would be SD buyers get when they post here. Maybe that could come up again with your new resolution to wait a while? I know you have a big family and all…just food for thought. You could capitalize on selling while the selling is good where you are at, by coming to cheaper market, and by buying after more depreciation.

There was a man who used to post here , in a situation very similiar to yours,family, fairly “well to do” and he did that. He said he is renting a killer house in La Jolla for around 6k. His psuedonym was “Cyphire” if you want to try to find some of his posts.

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

I think you should disregard the fire as a whole. The secular trend we are in will be filled with micro-rallies as well as chunks downward. These cyclical events are seasonal but will also be caused by external events. The fires is but one example.

I believe you need to be settled within yourself that all of the these issues aside, we are in a secular depreciation cycle. Yes there may be a rally along the way but it will not affect the overall plan of where we end up come 2011 or 2012.

Regardless of whether you personally rent or buy, it is very likely that the market will be depreciated in most if not all the neighborhoods you are searching in at the moment. Even those affected by the fire. You may be able to strike a bit better deal now because of the fire, but it is unlikely that this deal would be any better then at the same time a year or two from now, you know what I mean?

Just remember real estate moves slow and acts of the government and lenders to bail out the situation may be a little helpful but in time will only extend the cycle while perhaps reducing the slope.

Know what I mean?

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

I think you should disregard the fire as a whole. The secular trend we are in will be filled with micro-rallies as well as chunks downward. These cyclical events are seasonal but will also be caused by external events. The fires is but one example.

I believe you need to be settled within yourself that all of the these issues aside, we are in a secular depreciation cycle. Yes there may be a rally along the way but it will not affect the overall plan of where we end up come 2011 or 2012.

Regardless of whether you personally rent or buy, it is very likely that the market will be depreciated in most if not all the neighborhoods you are searching in at the moment. Even those affected by the fire. You may be able to strike a bit better deal now because of the fire, but it is unlikely that this deal would be any better then at the same time a year or two from now, you know what I mean?

Just remember real estate moves slow and acts of the government and lenders to bail out the situation may be a little helpful but in time will only extend the cycle while perhaps reducing the slope.

Know what I mean?

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

I think you should disregard the fire as a whole. The secular trend we are in will be filled with micro-rallies as well as chunks downward. These cyclical events are seasonal but will also be caused by external events. The fires is but one example.

I believe you need to be settled within yourself that all of the these issues aside, we are in a secular depreciation cycle. Yes there may be a rally along the way but it will not affect the overall plan of where we end up come 2011 or 2012.

Regardless of whether you personally rent or buy, it is very likely that the market will be depreciated in most if not all the neighborhoods you are searching in at the moment. Even those affected by the fire. You may be able to strike a bit better deal now because of the fire, but it is unlikely that this deal would be any better then at the same time a year or two from now, you know what I mean?

Just remember real estate moves slow and acts of the government and lenders to bail out the situation may be a little helpful but in time will only extend the cycle while perhaps reducing the slope.

Know what I mean?

[SD Realtor]

Raptor –

I think you should disregard the fire as a whole. The secular trend we are in will be filled with micro-rallies as well as chunks downward. These cyclical events are seasonal but will also be caused by external events. The fires is but one example.

I believe you need to be settled within yourself that all of the these issues aside, we are in a secular depreciation cycle. Yes there may be a rally along the way but it will not affect the overall plan of where we end up come 2011 or 2012.

Regardless of whether you personally rent or buy, it is very likely that the market will be depreciated in most if not all the neighborhoods you are searching in at the moment. Even those affected by the fire. You may be able to strike a bit better deal now because of the fire, but it is unlikely that this deal would be any better then at the same time a year or two from now, you know what I mean?

Just remember real estate moves slow and acts of the government and lenders to bail out the situation may be a little helpful but in time will only extend the cycle while perhaps reducing the slope.

Know what I mean?

[Prufrock]

66 houses did not burn in RSF (92067 and 92091). More like 8-10. Maybe 66 properties had damage (like all the landscaping in Cielo). Who gave you the 66 figure?

[Prufrock]

66 houses did not burn in RSF (92067 and 92091). More like 8-10. Maybe 66 properties had damage (like all the landscaping in Cielo). Who gave you the 66 figure?

[Prufrock]

66 houses did not burn in RSF (92067 and 92091). More like 8-10. Maybe 66 properties had damage (like all the landscaping in Cielo). Who gave you the 66 figure?

[Prufrock]

66 houses did not burn in RSF (92067 and 92091). More like 8-10. Maybe 66 properties had damage (like all the landscaping in Cielo). Who gave you the 66 figure?

[bsrsharma]

what you are saying is gambling

Actually not – Let us analyze some scenarios:

1. The property price appreciates – the buyer is happy and enjoys the new wealth. He may decide to sell and monetize his gains.

2. The property price depreciates – not a concern, if he wants to live there and has sufficent cash flow to finance it. If it depreciates dramatically, say 50% in a year or two, he can structure the transaction such that he can walk away at a small loss, if he feels like.

3. His cash flow improves significantly – he can pay back the loan and live happily – if he wants.

4. His cash flow falls dramatically – he can sell the house, if the value is profitable or send the keys to the lender, as a last resort – with a small loss – if structured properly.

In all cases, the borrower stands to win big or lose small. The main thing is to shield his net worth from the loan with robust legal firewalls.

Now if you ask me if the lender is gambling – I have a short answer: Yes {Ask Bear/Merrill/Citi for confirmation!}

[bsrsharma]

what you are saying is gambling

Actually not – Let us analyze some scenarios:

1. The property price appreciates – the buyer is happy and enjoys the new wealth. He may decide to sell and monetize his gains.

2. The property price depreciates – not a concern, if he wants to live there and has sufficent cash flow to finance it. If it depreciates dramatically, say 50% in a year or two, he can structure the transaction such that he can walk away at a small loss, if he feels like.

3. His cash flow improves significantly – he can pay back the loan and live happily – if he wants.

4. His cash flow falls dramatically – he can sell the house, if the value is profitable or send the keys to the lender, as a last resort – with a small loss – if structured properly.

In all cases, the borrower stands to win big or lose small. The main thing is to shield his net worth from the loan with robust legal firewalls.

Now if you ask me if the lender is gambling – I have a short answer: Yes {Ask Bear/Merrill/Citi for confirmation!}

[bsrsharma]

what you are saying is gambling

Actually not – Let us analyze some scenarios:

1. The property price appreciates – the buyer is happy and enjoys the new wealth. He may decide to sell and monetize his gains.

2. The property price depreciates – not a concern, if he wants to live there and has sufficent cash flow to finance it. If it depreciates dramatically, say 50% in a year or two, he can structure the transaction such that he can walk away at a small loss, if he feels like.

3. His cash flow improves significantly – he can pay back the loan and live happily – if he wants.

4. His cash flow falls dramatically – he can sell the house, if the value is profitable or send the keys to the lender, as a last resort – with a small loss – if structured properly.

In all cases, the borrower stands to win big or lose small. The main thing is to shield his net worth from the loan with robust legal firewalls.

Now if you ask me if the lender is gambling – I have a short answer: Yes {Ask Bear/Merrill/Citi for confirmation!}

[bsrsharma]

what you are saying is gambling

Actually not – Let us analyze some scenarios:

1. The property price appreciates – the buyer is happy and enjoys the new wealth. He may decide to sell and monetize his gains.

2. The property price depreciates – not a concern, if he wants to live there and has sufficent cash flow to finance it. If it depreciates dramatically, say 50% in a year or two, he can structure the transaction such that he can walk away at a small loss, if he feels like.

3. His cash flow improves significantly – he can pay back the loan and live happily – if he wants.

4. His cash flow falls dramatically – he can sell the house, if the value is profitable or send the keys to the lender, as a last resort – with a small loss – if structured properly.

In all cases, the borrower stands to win big or lose small. The main thing is to shield his net worth from the loan with robust legal firewalls.

Now if you ask me if the lender is gambling – I have a short answer: Yes {Ask Bear/Merrill/Citi for confirmation!}

[4Sbuyer2002]

Don’t listen to Prufrock. He’s wrong. Here is a list of homes “destroyed” in Rancho Santa Fe. 64 “destroyed” and 24 “damaged.” BTW the source of the information is the Rancho Santa Fe fire department.

http://www.rsf-fire.org/news/witch_creek_info.asp

Confirmed Destroyed (by Damage Assessment) 64 homes destroyed.

20043 2nd Place
20115 2nd Place
20230 Ash Lane
16910 Avenida Luis
16924 Avenida Luis
16925 Avenida Luis
20215 Beech Lane
6139 Calle Camposeco
6146 Calle Camposeco
7861 Calle Dos Lagos
17511 Caminito de los Escoses
17577 Caminito de los Escoses
17326 Camino Santa Fe
17326 Camino Brisa Del Mar
17450 Camino Brisa Del Mar
17475 Camino Brisa Del Mar
9527 Camino Santa Fe
9584 Camino Santa Fe
6125 Camino Selva
6129 Camino Selva
6131 Camino Selva
7683 Del DIos Highway
8175 Del Dios Highway
9821 Del Dios Highway
9823 Del Dios Highway
20127 3rd
TBD 3rd
17089 El Mirador
17134 El Mirador
17136 El Mirador
17007 El Vuelo
17116 El Vuelo
16725 El Zorro Vista
9728 Juniper Lane
9730 Juniper Lane
9727 Juniper Lane
20024 Kalmia Lane
9732 Kalmia Lane
17221 La Brisa
17237 Las Brisa
17345 La Brisa
Lake Drive and Juniper (no number)
20102 Lake Drive
20112 Lake Drive
20116 Lake Drive
20264 Lake Drive
20278 Lake Drive
7035 Las Colinas
6777 La Valle Plateada
17400 Rancho Del Rio
17403 Rancho Del Rio
17417 Rancho Del Rio
17455 Rancho Del Rio
18527 Rancho Del Rio
7872 Rio Senda
16827 Via de la Valle
7097 Via Monalex
7499 Vista Rancho Court
16501 Zumaque Street
16526 Zumaque Street
16583 Zumaque Street
16655 Zumaque Street
16729 Zumaque Street
16755 Zumaque Street

and here is the list of “Damaged” homes

Confirmed Damaged (by Damage Assessment) 24 homes damaged.

20110 3rd
6103 Avenida Picacho
5990 Calle Camposeco
5992 Calle Camposeco
6039 Calle Camposeco
6151 Calle Camposeco
17516 Caminito de los Escoses
17578 Caminito de los Escoses
10110 Camino San Thomas
20120 Date Lane
17077 El Mirador
17109 El Vuelo
17111 El Vuelo
17133 El Vuelo
16765 El Zorro Vista
17204 La Brisa
17211 La Brisa
16650 Las Cuestas
11650 Los Barbos
16501 Los Barbos
17509 Rancho Del Rio
16429 Via a la Casa
16715 Via de la Valle
16765 Zumaque Street

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Don’t listen to Prufrock. He’s wrong. Here is a list of homes “destroyed” in Rancho Santa Fe. 64 “destroyed” and 24 “damaged.” BTW the source of the information is the Rancho Santa Fe fire department.

http://www.rsf-fire.org/news/witch_creek_info.asp

Confirmed Destroyed (by Damage Assessment) 64 homes destroyed.

20043 2nd Place
20115 2nd Place
20230 Ash Lane
16910 Avenida Luis
16924 Avenida Luis
16925 Avenida Luis
20215 Beech Lane
6139 Calle Camposeco
6146 Calle Camposeco
7861 Calle Dos Lagos
17511 Caminito de los Escoses
17577 Caminito de los Escoses
17326 Camino Santa Fe
17326 Camino Brisa Del Mar
17450 Camino Brisa Del Mar
17475 Camino Brisa Del Mar
9527 Camino Santa Fe
9584 Camino Santa Fe
6125 Camino Selva
6129 Camino Selva
6131 Camino Selva
7683 Del DIos Highway
8175 Del Dios Highway
9821 Del Dios Highway
9823 Del Dios Highway
20127 3rd
TBD 3rd
17089 El Mirador
17134 El Mirador
17136 El Mirador
17007 El Vuelo
17116 El Vuelo
16725 El Zorro Vista
9728 Juniper Lane
9730 Juniper Lane
9727 Juniper Lane
20024 Kalmia Lane
9732 Kalmia Lane
17221 La Brisa
17237 Las Brisa
17345 La Brisa
Lake Drive and Juniper (no number)
20102 Lake Drive
20112 Lake Drive
20116 Lake Drive
20264 Lake Drive
20278 Lake Drive
7035 Las Colinas
6777 La Valle Plateada
17400 Rancho Del Rio
17403 Rancho Del Rio
17417 Rancho Del Rio
17455 Rancho Del Rio
18527 Rancho Del Rio
7872 Rio Senda
16827 Via de la Valle
7097 Via Monalex
7499 Vista Rancho Court
16501 Zumaque Street
16526 Zumaque Street
16583 Zumaque Street
16655 Zumaque Street
16729 Zumaque Street
16755 Zumaque Street

and here is the list of “Damaged” homes

Confirmed Damaged (by Damage Assessment) 24 homes damaged.

20110 3rd
6103 Avenida Picacho
5990 Calle Camposeco
5992 Calle Camposeco
6039 Calle Camposeco
6151 Calle Camposeco
17516 Caminito de los Escoses
17578 Caminito de los Escoses
10110 Camino San Thomas
20120 Date Lane
17077 El Mirador
17109 El Vuelo
17111 El Vuelo
17133 El Vuelo
16765 El Zorro Vista
17204 La Brisa
17211 La Brisa
16650 Las Cuestas
11650 Los Barbos
16501 Los Barbos
17509 Rancho Del Rio
16429 Via a la Casa
16715 Via de la Valle
16765 Zumaque Street

grateful owner . . . .

[Author]

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