SD prices post fires

[XBoxBoy]

Prices will fall due to the fire. Least that’s my expectation. There are two forces that you must weigh in order to make this decision. First, as Raptorduck mentions, some of the people who lost there homes will simply buy another home. And the second force is that there will be some people who had been thinking of retiring or moving to San Diego who will now be less inclined to do so. Obviously, the people who lost homes and simply go buy another will increase demand. Those that decide not to move to San Diego will decrease demand. So the question is which of these two forces do you think will be stronger?

My belief is that only a few people who lost their homes will simply go out and buy another. There might be a few who can do that, but most will need to settle insurance and deal with their previous house, either sell off the lot, or rebuild then sell. Thus the increase in demand from people who lost their homes will be slight.

On the other hand, during the week of the fires, I heard from many friends and relatives all over the country asking about the fires. All their comments made it clear that they were really surprised/shocked by what was going on. While I have no real evidence or data, my hunch is that the fires will discourage a lot of people who were thinking of moving here. Thus I believe the decrease in demand caused by people not moving here will outweigh the increase in demand caused by people who lost their homes.

But, as a side note, I will also mention that I believe the popping of the real estate bubble will far outweigh either of these two forces. And so prices will be going down regardless of the impact from the fires.

Just my two cents…
XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Prices will fall due to the fire. Least that’s my expectation. There are two forces that you must weigh in order to make this decision. First, as Raptorduck mentions, some of the people who lost there homes will simply buy another home. And the second force is that there will be some people who had been thinking of retiring or moving to San Diego who will now be less inclined to do so. Obviously, the people who lost homes and simply go buy another will increase demand. Those that decide not to move to San Diego will decrease demand. So the question is which of these two forces do you think will be stronger?

My belief is that only a few people who lost their homes will simply go out and buy another. There might be a few who can do that, but most will need to settle insurance and deal with their previous house, either sell off the lot, or rebuild then sell. Thus the increase in demand from people who lost their homes will be slight.

On the other hand, during the week of the fires, I heard from many friends and relatives all over the country asking about the fires. All their comments made it clear that they were really surprised/shocked by what was going on. While I have no real evidence or data, my hunch is that the fires will discourage a lot of people who were thinking of moving here. Thus I believe the decrease in demand caused by people not moving here will outweigh the increase in demand caused by people who lost their homes.

But, as a side note, I will also mention that I believe the popping of the real estate bubble will far outweigh either of these two forces. And so prices will be going down regardless of the impact from the fires.

Just my two cents…
XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Prices will fall due to the fire. Least that’s my expectation. There are two forces that you must weigh in order to make this decision. First, as Raptorduck mentions, some of the people who lost there homes will simply buy another home. And the second force is that there will be some people who had been thinking of retiring or moving to San Diego who will now be less inclined to do so. Obviously, the people who lost homes and simply go buy another will increase demand. Those that decide not to move to San Diego will decrease demand. So the question is which of these two forces do you think will be stronger?

My belief is that only a few people who lost their homes will simply go out and buy another. There might be a few who can do that, but most will need to settle insurance and deal with their previous house, either sell off the lot, or rebuild then sell. Thus the increase in demand from people who lost their homes will be slight.

On the other hand, during the week of the fires, I heard from many friends and relatives all over the country asking about the fires. All their comments made it clear that they were really surprised/shocked by what was going on. While I have no real evidence or data, my hunch is that the fires will discourage a lot of people who were thinking of moving here. Thus I believe the decrease in demand caused by people not moving here will outweigh the increase in demand caused by people who lost their homes.

But, as a side note, I will also mention that I believe the popping of the real estate bubble will far outweigh either of these two forces. And so prices will be going down regardless of the impact from the fires.

Just my two cents…
XBoxBoy

[asragov]

The moral dilemma is mostly being responded to by profiteering, on the part of sellers and builders. Don’t get caught in their “taking advantage of the tragedy.”

The 2003 fires aggravated an already-tight situation in San Diego’s real estate market, where nearly every decent home had several offers when it went to sale.

The 2007 fires came just as the market is beginning to fall apart. While there might be some delays along the way, the trend is clearly down, and the fires will be forgotten soon enough.

“Hurry up and buy” is a desire that you simply have to resist. If you need a place to live and will live there most of your life, then buy already, and don’t sweat it.

But if price matters, 2008 and 2009 will almost surely be MUCH more attractive to buyers in San Diego / RSF than 2007.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[asragov]

The moral dilemma is mostly being responded to by profiteering, on the part of sellers and builders. Don’t get caught in their “taking advantage of the tragedy.”

The 2003 fires aggravated an already-tight situation in San Diego’s real estate market, where nearly every decent home had several offers when it went to sale.

The 2007 fires came just as the market is beginning to fall apart. While there might be some delays along the way, the trend is clearly down, and the fires will be forgotten soon enough.

“Hurry up and buy” is a desire that you simply have to resist. If you need a place to live and will live there most of your life, then buy already, and don’t sweat it.

But if price matters, 2008 and 2009 will almost surely be MUCH more attractive to buyers in San Diego / RSF than 2007.

[asragov]

The moral dilemma is mostly being responded to by profiteering, on the part of sellers and builders. Don’t get caught in their “taking advantage of the tragedy.”

The 2003 fires aggravated an already-tight situation in San Diego’s real estate market, where nearly every decent home had several offers when it went to sale.

The 2007 fires came just as the market is beginning to fall apart. While there might be some delays along the way, the trend is clearly down, and the fires will be forgotten soon enough.

“Hurry up and buy” is a desire that you simply have to resist. If you need a place to live and will live there most of your life, then buy already, and don’t sweat it.

But if price matters, 2008 and 2009 will almost surely be MUCH more attractive to buyers in San Diego / RSF than 2007.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[asragov]

The moral dilemma is mostly being responded to by profiteering, on the part of sellers and builders. Don’t get caught in their “taking advantage of the tragedy.”

The 2003 fires aggravated an already-tight situation in San Diego’s real estate market, where nearly every decent home had several offers when it went to sale.

The 2007 fires came just as the market is beginning to fall apart. While there might be some delays along the way, the trend is clearly down, and the fires will be forgotten soon enough.

“Hurry up and buy” is a desire that you simply have to resist. If you need a place to live and will live there most of your life, then buy already, and don’t sweat it.

But if price matters, 2008 and 2009 will almost surely be MUCH more attractive to buyers in San Diego / RSF than 2007.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[Anonymous]

Read the book The Paradox of Choice, available at any book store, and learn the psychology behind decision making…

[Anonymous]

Read the book The Paradox of Choice, available at any book store, and learn the psychology behind decision making…

[Anonymous]

Read the book The Paradox of Choice, available at any book store, and learn the psychology behind decision making…

[Anonymous]

Read the book The Paradox of Choice, available at any book store, and learn the psychology behind decision making…

[Author]

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