SD Median rises 3.5% April to May

[CAwireman]

My wife will see this and demand that we buy immediately.

San Diego Median: $622,380
% delta May/Apr: 3.5%
% delta May 05/06: 2.3%
% delta Sales May/Apr: 4.9%
% delta Sales May/05: -19.7%

Here’s the link:

Business Wire Article

Sticky SD home prices on the way down.

[CAwireman]

The link:

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20060627005927&newsLang=en

[powayseller]

San Diego Home Prices fell $15K from April. See this thread.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Apples Oranges Noise and Statistics.

The business wire article cites the median price of existing resale single family homes, which actually increased in May.

The NBC article on the above referenced thread says that the AVERAGE price of a home decreased by $15k in May.
(which includes condos and presumably new homes).

These comparisons are like comparing the circumference of an apple to the diameter of an orange. Note the difference between mean and median (statistics).

I have been tracking the median price of existing SFR’s in Central SD since shortly after purchasing in 1996.
Month-to-month fluctuation in the 3-5% range for Central SD county and the county on the whole for either YOY changes or month-to-month changes are the norm.

This is what people who work with statistics call “noise”

Both articles are citing levels that are “within the noise” of the signal they are measuring and are misleading.
Looking over the longer term the trend is clear. Prices have been flat for the last year plus and are poised to decay based on existing inventory and seasonal factors over the next 6 months, followed by … (see voiceofsandiego.org)

[ocrenter]

condo’s always fall first because they are less desireable. builders will always cut prices first because they can’t afford standing inventories of spec homes AND they have no emotional attachment to these homes.

The sellers of the traditional SFR in general have lived and raised their families there. There is a lot of pride in ownership and competition with neighbors. “If our home went for less than the Jones’, that must mean our home wasn’t kept as nicely, or my latest home improvement project wasn’t quiet as good as Bob’s.”

Therefore, condo’s and new homes lead the way in the fall, and the SFR prices are dragged down with the seller kicking and screaming.

[Bugs]

I agree with FormerSanDiegan – the monthly statistics are the trees, not the forest. I don’t invest too much meaning in any indicator until they start stacking up. It’s like worrying about the effects of the one foreclosure on the entire neighborhood. By itself, the one low sale is just noise.

[Author]

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