San Diego YOY Inventory now nearly flat.

[svelte]

So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.

Chickens!!!

I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.

Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.

With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!

It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.

PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.

[BKlawyer]

What????????? The “gulf between the haves and the have nots”???? The gulf is NARROWING at a frightening speed! I’m now doing BKs for people who own MULTI million $$$ properties in N. County who were pullin in mega bucks a few years ago. They bought into the RE nonsense and are into spec projects, condo conversions, etc. These are people whose names ARE well know in the SD community. And please explain how (and more importantly, why) “the rich” will become richer by snatching up a depreciating asset that will continue to drop and stall for 5-10 years. Remember that after the “great depression” it really was 25 years and 2 world wars before our economy came back in the 50’s. Many economists now opine that this credit crunch will make that depression look like a “walk in the park” compared to what we are gonna go through. Whistle past the graveyard if you like. . .

[BKlawyer]

What????????? The “gulf between the haves and the have nots”???? The gulf is NARROWING at a frightening speed! I’m now doing BKs for people who own MULTI million $$$ properties in N. County who were pullin in mega bucks a few years ago. They bought into the RE nonsense and are into spec projects, condo conversions, etc. These are people whose names ARE well know in the SD community. And please explain how (and more importantly, why) “the rich” will become richer by snatching up a depreciating asset that will continue to drop and stall for 5-10 years. Remember that after the “great depression” it really was 25 years and 2 world wars before our economy came back in the 50’s. Many economists now opine that this credit crunch will make that depression look like a “walk in the park” compared to what we are gonna go through. Whistle past the graveyard if you like. . .

[BKlawyer]

What????????? The “gulf between the haves and the have nots”???? The gulf is NARROWING at a frightening speed! I’m now doing BKs for people who own MULTI million $$$ properties in N. County who were pullin in mega bucks a few years ago. They bought into the RE nonsense and are into spec projects, condo conversions, etc. These are people whose names ARE well know in the SD community. And please explain how (and more importantly, why) “the rich” will become richer by snatching up a depreciating asset that will continue to drop and stall for 5-10 years. Remember that after the “great depression” it really was 25 years and 2 world wars before our economy came back in the 50’s. Many economists now opine that this credit crunch will make that depression look like a “walk in the park” compared to what we are gonna go through. Whistle past the graveyard if you like. . .

[BKlawyer]

What????????? The “gulf between the haves and the have nots”???? The gulf is NARROWING at a frightening speed! I’m now doing BKs for people who own MULTI million $$$ properties in N. County who were pullin in mega bucks a few years ago. They bought into the RE nonsense and are into spec projects, condo conversions, etc. These are people whose names ARE well know in the SD community. And please explain how (and more importantly, why) “the rich” will become richer by snatching up a depreciating asset that will continue to drop and stall for 5-10 years. Remember that after the “great depression” it really was 25 years and 2 world wars before our economy came back in the 50’s. Many economists now opine that this credit crunch will make that depression look like a “walk in the park” compared to what we are gonna go through. Whistle past the graveyard if you like. . .

[BKlawyer]

What????????? The “gulf between the haves and the have nots”???? The gulf is NARROWING at a frightening speed! I’m now doing BKs for people who own MULTI million $$$ properties in N. County who were pullin in mega bucks a few years ago. They bought into the RE nonsense and are into spec projects, condo conversions, etc. These are people whose names ARE well know in the SD community. And please explain how (and more importantly, why) “the rich” will become richer by snatching up a depreciating asset that will continue to drop and stall for 5-10 years. Remember that after the “great depression” it really was 25 years and 2 world wars before our economy came back in the 50’s. Many economists now opine that this credit crunch will make that depression look like a “walk in the park” compared to what we are gonna go through. Whistle past the graveyard if you like. . .

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Svelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Svelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Svelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Svelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Svelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.

[DWCAP]

Maybe I should have been alittle more frank with my question about does it really matter. Ofcourse it matters how much it goes down. That is why I went on about it alot more. (See my comment in other threads about buying places in Santee for a buck if it were ever possible. I have NO interest in living in Santee, but if it was a buck, id buy 5. Make an inhome bowling alley or an archery range or whatever. The point is the if it over corrects too much, demand will go shooting back up. It wont over correct that much)
My point was rather that worrying about the exact % drop and is now a good time to buy cause itll only go down X% more is attempting to time the market. No one knows how much itll drop. No one knows how long it will last, and no one knows if they will get to keep their job next year or not. It is this uncertaintly that could drop things below basic fundamentals, and being it is totally uncertain, there is no way to accuratly predict what the drop will be. Even you had to give yourself a 5% margine on either side cause you dont know. That is +/- 10% of a 600k house. 60k seems like alot to be off considering it is 20% of your 300k estimation.

I am not trying to doubt you, I kinda think you will be right. My point is that it is even more dangerous for a buyer to “jump” cause they think they know what will happen than it is for them to buy cause they know the “fundamentals arnt far away”.

[DWCAP]

Maybe I should have been alittle more frank with my question about does it really matter. Ofcourse it matters how much it goes down. That is why I went on about it alot more. (See my comment in other threads about buying places in Santee for a buck if it were ever possible. I have NO interest in living in Santee, but if it was a buck, id buy 5. Make an inhome bowling alley or an archery range or whatever. The point is the if it over corrects too much, demand will go shooting back up. It wont over correct that much)
My point was rather that worrying about the exact % drop and is now a good time to buy cause itll only go down X% more is attempting to time the market. No one knows how much itll drop. No one knows how long it will last, and no one knows if they will get to keep their job next year or not. It is this uncertaintly that could drop things below basic fundamentals, and being it is totally uncertain, there is no way to accuratly predict what the drop will be. Even you had to give yourself a 5% margine on either side cause you dont know. That is +/- 10% of a 600k house. 60k seems like alot to be off considering it is 20% of your 300k estimation.

I am not trying to doubt you, I kinda think you will be right. My point is that it is even more dangerous for a buyer to “jump” cause they think they know what will happen than it is for them to buy cause they know the “fundamentals arnt far away”.

[DWCAP]

Maybe I should have been alittle more frank with my question about does it really matter. Ofcourse it matters how much it goes down. That is why I went on about it alot more. (See my comment in other threads about buying places in Santee for a buck if it were ever possible. I have NO interest in living in Santee, but if it was a buck, id buy 5. Make an inhome bowling alley or an archery range or whatever. The point is the if it over corrects too much, demand will go shooting back up. It wont over correct that much)
My point was rather that worrying about the exact % drop and is now a good time to buy cause itll only go down X% more is attempting to time the market. No one knows how much itll drop. No one knows how long it will last, and no one knows if they will get to keep their job next year or not. It is this uncertaintly that could drop things below basic fundamentals, and being it is totally uncertain, there is no way to accuratly predict what the drop will be. Even you had to give yourself a 5% margine on either side cause you dont know. That is +/- 10% of a 600k house. 60k seems like alot to be off considering it is 20% of your 300k estimation.

I am not trying to doubt you, I kinda think you will be right. My point is that it is even more dangerous for a buyer to “jump” cause they think they know what will happen than it is for them to buy cause they know the “fundamentals arnt far away”.

[DWCAP]

Maybe I should have been alittle more frank with my question about does it really matter. Ofcourse it matters how much it goes down. That is why I went on about it alot more. (See my comment in other threads about buying places in Santee for a buck if it were ever possible. I have NO interest in living in Santee, but if it was a buck, id buy 5. Make an inhome bowling alley or an archery range or whatever. The point is the if it over corrects too much, demand will go shooting back up. It wont over correct that much)
My point was rather that worrying about the exact % drop and is now a good time to buy cause itll only go down X% more is attempting to time the market. No one knows how much itll drop. No one knows how long it will last, and no one knows if they will get to keep their job next year or not. It is this uncertaintly that could drop things below basic fundamentals, and being it is totally uncertain, there is no way to accuratly predict what the drop will be. Even you had to give yourself a 5% margine on either side cause you dont know. That is +/- 10% of a 600k house. 60k seems like alot to be off considering it is 20% of your 300k estimation.

I am not trying to doubt you, I kinda think you will be right. My point is that it is even more dangerous for a buyer to “jump” cause they think they know what will happen than it is for them to buy cause they know the “fundamentals arnt far away”.

[Author]

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