San Diego RE is down 6%

[CAwireman]

Not to steal anyone’s thunder, but on NPR, there was a report that San Diego RE is down 6 % (assumed median, YOY) But, I didn’t hear the entire story.

Anyone else hear the same?

[lindismith]

I heard it yesterday morning. What was so frustrating however is that they kept harping on the median. I guess the median has only gone down slightly.

After all we know about the median I wanted to write them a letter to educate them. It’s simply bad reporting at this point to keep harping on the median. I exepect organizations like NPR to do a little more digging, and report more accurately.

[CAwireman]

Links:

SD Union Trib article         http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20070116-9999-1n16housing.html

Table by zipcode http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070116/images/prices.pdf

         

 

 

[CAwireman]

Yes, I agree Lindi. My expectation for NPR is on the higher side.

Here are some excerpts from the UT article:

Can someone help me understand these two statements:

“The market ended the year with a median price of $483,000 for all homes, off 6.4 percent from December 2005.”

“The overall median price of a home in the county last year slipped 0.8 percent, to $490,000, down from 2005’s $494,000. The annual decline was the first since a 1.8 percent drop from 1994 to 1995, when the median stood at $166,000.”

Foreclosure story

Meanwhile, the market provided only heartache for first-time buyer Andy Sobel. He faces foreclosure on a one-bedroom condo he bought for $240,000 two years ago in Rolando, a neighborhood southeast of San Diego State University.

Sobel took out first and second mortgages with adjustable rates to make the purchase, and once the monthly payments started adjusting upward and the value of his condo fell, he said he had no choice but to stop making his payments.

He’s now in the foreclosure process and while his condo is up for sale at a much reduced price – as low as $165,000 – he’s had few nibbles.

“I was a naive buyer, I’ll admit, but no one should have put me in this loan,” said Sobel, who works at the San Diego Organizing Project, a faith-based group advocating for low-income families. “I make very little working for a nonprofit.

“This has been a very demoralizing thing; you feel like a complete idiot living paycheck to paycheck. But it turns out that foreclosure is not that uncommon. But it is very harsh on the psyche.”

[gold_dredger_phd]

And dummy, Andy Sobel, wonders why he doesn’t have any money. Duh!

I guess it never occured to him to get a second job. Most people are just to good to get second jobs.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Can someone help me understand these two statements:

“The market ended the year with a median price of $483,000 for all homes, off 6.4 percent from December 2005.”

“The overall median price of a home in the county last year slipped 0.8 percent, to $490,000, down from 2005’s $494,000. The annual decline was the first since a 1.8 percent drop from 1994 to 1995, when the median stood at $166,000.”

I was trying to figure that out myself. My thoughts: Reporters are typically not good at math, but good with words. However, they got the math right and left out some words that would clarify matters.

It seems that the 0.8% decline is a comparison of the median from the entire year of 2005 with all of 2006.

The decline of 6.4% compares only December 2005 with December 2006.

Bottom line : 6.4 % drop December to December. The 0.8% number is diluted and putting faith in it is deluded.

[Anonymous]

‘Diluted’ and ‘deluded’; good one, FSD!

[PerryChase]

More of the same at the UT. Listen to broker Lisa Starbird. I wonder what star she’s on. She thinks that houses are not affordable but then she said ” we can get anyone into a home.” Of course, she said “buy now.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/more/housingmarket/index.html

[mixxalot]

Playing with Statistics

I call it playing with statistics and bad analysis. Its easy to fudge numbers and statistics to present a biased view of data. This is what the real estate con artists are doing right now.

[sdnativeson]

“There are lies, damn lies – and statistics.” either Twain or Disreali I am not sure.

[CAwireman]

FormerSanDiegan,

Thanks for helping to validate my confusion over the statements which were seemingly at odds with one another.

I intuitively grasped the higher significance of the 6% number and thought it to be more relevant.

Much appreciated!

[Author]

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