San Diego housing faces 8.5% price reduction

[CAwireman]

“San Diego County single-family-home prices are facing an 8.5 percent fall over the next year now that buyers no longer have access to state and federal tax credits, Fiserv economists predicted Monday.”

Here’s the link:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/nov/15/san-diego-housing-faces-85-price-reduction/

“Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, said San Diego prices rose 11.6 percent from the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter this year. But a double-dip is now in the works for various reasons.

That decline would place San Diego as the 40th worst housing market out of 384 studied. No. 1 biggest depreciation market is the Punta Gorda area of Florida, forecasted to drop 28.1 percent from its second quarter price of $135,000. The highest appreciating market is the Kennewick-Pasco-Richland area of Washington state, up 1.8 percent from $177,000 over the same period.

“Factors weighing on the housing market include chronic high unemployment, the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit that expired in June and the large number of distressed properties that remain in markets, such as Florida, Arizona and Nevada,” the company said.

Increased sales in high-priced areas, such as San Francisco and Washington, as well as San Diego, helped push national prices up 3.6 percent in the 12 months ended June 30.

“Some of the largest declines in prices will occur in markets that had strong spring and summer 2010 price increases,” said David Stiff, Fiserv chief economist. “This is because the homebuyer tax credit delayed the correction in home prices that is necessary to return housing affordability to pre-bubble levels.”

He said San Diego and the other markets that had upturns will “experience double-dip price declines.”

“If there are no downside surprises for the economy or the housing and mortgage markets, home prices should start to stabilize at the end of 2011,” he said.

Nationally, Fiserv expects prices to fall another 7.1 percent, from $177,000 in the second quarter of this year to $164,400 by the second quarter of next year. San Diego’s prices are projected to fall from $390,000 to $356,850 over the same period.

By the second quarter of 2012, Fiserv predicts San Diego prices will be up .8 percent year-over-year to about $359,700.

Fiserv bases its prices on paired sales of same single-family-resale homes over time on a three-month rolling average.”

I’m actually pretty surprised, as I was thinking we had likely hit bottom and had began trending upwards. Of course, this is only an 8 percent lost predicted, not 20 or 30%. Predictions anyone?

[jpinpb]

This and the mere mention of eliminating MID scares me.

[jpinpb]

This and the mere mention of eliminating MID scares me.

[jpinpb]

This and the mere mention of eliminating MID scares me.

[jpinpb]

This and the mere mention of eliminating MID scares me.

[jpinpb]

This and the mere mention of eliminating MID scares me.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think the FISERV predictions are not worth the price of the storage for the bits they consume on the U-T web site servers.

Here is what FISERV predicted in August 2010, a mere 3.5 months ago …

“County home prices will decline 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011 vs. the first quarter this year, says an analysis from Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Case-Shiller Indexes.”
Source :
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/03/prices-of-homes-in-county-may-fall/

Price went from 370K to 390 K from 1Q 2010 to 2Q 2010, according to these two articles.

Let’s put these two together:

1. Decline of 9.6% from 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011
gives us a price of ~ 335K in 1Q 2011.

2. Decline of 8.5% from 2Q 2010 to 2Q 2011
gives us a price of 356K in 2 Q 2011.

So, they have become noticably more optimistic in prices between their august prediciton for 1Q 2011 and their current November prediction for 2Q 2011.

Here’s an example of one of their predictions from circa 2007 ….

The source for the prediction (FISERV) in the article predicted a 1.3% decline from April 2007 to April 2008, per the link below.

How did they do ?

The San Diego market declined by ~ 20% in the ensuing 12 months. The average decline PER MONTH was about equal to their precited annual decline.
They published their prediction on the cusp of the most precipitous 18-month decline in San Diego history and completely missed it … by more than an order of magnitude.

Why should we put any weight on their current predictions ?

linky …

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/forecast.moneymag/index.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think the FISERV predictions are not worth the price of the storage for the bits they consume on the U-T web site servers.

Here is what FISERV predicted in August 2010, a mere 3.5 months ago …

“County home prices will decline 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011 vs. the first quarter this year, says an analysis from Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Case-Shiller Indexes.”
Source :
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/03/prices-of-homes-in-county-may-fall/

Price went from 370K to 390 K from 1Q 2010 to 2Q 2010, according to these two articles.

Let’s put these two together:

1. Decline of 9.6% from 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011
gives us a price of ~ 335K in 1Q 2011.

2. Decline of 8.5% from 2Q 2010 to 2Q 2011
gives us a price of 356K in 2 Q 2011.

So, they have become noticably more optimistic in prices between their august prediciton for 1Q 2011 and their current November prediction for 2Q 2011.

Here’s an example of one of their predictions from circa 2007 ….

The source for the prediction (FISERV) in the article predicted a 1.3% decline from April 2007 to April 2008, per the link below.

How did they do ?

The San Diego market declined by ~ 20% in the ensuing 12 months. The average decline PER MONTH was about equal to their precited annual decline.
They published their prediction on the cusp of the most precipitous 18-month decline in San Diego history and completely missed it … by more than an order of magnitude.

Why should we put any weight on their current predictions ?

linky …

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/forecast.moneymag/index.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think the FISERV predictions are not worth the price of the storage for the bits they consume on the U-T web site servers.

Here is what FISERV predicted in August 2010, a mere 3.5 months ago …

“County home prices will decline 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011 vs. the first quarter this year, says an analysis from Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Case-Shiller Indexes.”
Source :
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/03/prices-of-homes-in-county-may-fall/

Price went from 370K to 390 K from 1Q 2010 to 2Q 2010, according to these two articles.

Let’s put these two together:

1. Decline of 9.6% from 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011
gives us a price of ~ 335K in 1Q 2011.

2. Decline of 8.5% from 2Q 2010 to 2Q 2011
gives us a price of 356K in 2 Q 2011.

So, they have become noticably more optimistic in prices between their august prediciton for 1Q 2011 and their current November prediction for 2Q 2011.

Here’s an example of one of their predictions from circa 2007 ….

The source for the prediction (FISERV) in the article predicted a 1.3% decline from April 2007 to April 2008, per the link below.

How did they do ?

The San Diego market declined by ~ 20% in the ensuing 12 months. The average decline PER MONTH was about equal to their precited annual decline.
They published their prediction on the cusp of the most precipitous 18-month decline in San Diego history and completely missed it … by more than an order of magnitude.

Why should we put any weight on their current predictions ?

linky …

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/forecast.moneymag/index.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think the FISERV predictions are not worth the price of the storage for the bits they consume on the U-T web site servers.

Here is what FISERV predicted in August 2010, a mere 3.5 months ago …

“County home prices will decline 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011 vs. the first quarter this year, says an analysis from Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Case-Shiller Indexes.”
Source :
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/03/prices-of-homes-in-county-may-fall/

Price went from 370K to 390 K from 1Q 2010 to 2Q 2010, according to these two articles.

Let’s put these two together:

1. Decline of 9.6% from 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011
gives us a price of ~ 335K in 1Q 2011.

2. Decline of 8.5% from 2Q 2010 to 2Q 2011
gives us a price of 356K in 2 Q 2011.

So, they have become noticably more optimistic in prices between their august prediciton for 1Q 2011 and their current November prediction for 2Q 2011.

Here’s an example of one of their predictions from circa 2007 ….

The source for the prediction (FISERV) in the article predicted a 1.3% decline from April 2007 to April 2008, per the link below.

How did they do ?

The San Diego market declined by ~ 20% in the ensuing 12 months. The average decline PER MONTH was about equal to their precited annual decline.
They published their prediction on the cusp of the most precipitous 18-month decline in San Diego history and completely missed it … by more than an order of magnitude.

Why should we put any weight on their current predictions ?

linky …

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/forecast.moneymag/index.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think the FISERV predictions are not worth the price of the storage for the bits they consume on the U-T web site servers.

Here is what FISERV predicted in August 2010, a mere 3.5 months ago …

“County home prices will decline 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011 vs. the first quarter this year, says an analysis from Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Case-Shiller Indexes.”
Source :
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/03/prices-of-homes-in-county-may-fall/

Price went from 370K to 390 K from 1Q 2010 to 2Q 2010, according to these two articles.

Let’s put these two together:

1. Decline of 9.6% from 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011
gives us a price of ~ 335K in 1Q 2011.

2. Decline of 8.5% from 2Q 2010 to 2Q 2011
gives us a price of 356K in 2 Q 2011.

So, they have become noticably more optimistic in prices between their august prediciton for 1Q 2011 and their current November prediction for 2Q 2011.

Here’s an example of one of their predictions from circa 2007 ….

The source for the prediction (FISERV) in the article predicted a 1.3% decline from April 2007 to April 2008, per the link below.

How did they do ?

The San Diego market declined by ~ 20% in the ensuing 12 months. The average decline PER MONTH was about equal to their precited annual decline.
They published their prediction on the cusp of the most precipitous 18-month decline in San Diego history and completely missed it … by more than an order of magnitude.

Why should we put any weight on their current predictions ?

linky …

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/forecast.moneymag/index.htm

[NotCranky]

deleted

[NotCranky]

deleted

[NotCranky]

deleted

[NotCranky]

deleted

[Author]

Posts