By Dean Calbreath
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
June 16, 2007
San Diego payrolls grew an anemic 0.3 percent between May 2006 and May 2007, as the county continued to suffer the effects of a declining real estate market, according to data released yesterday by the California Employment Development Department.
“Alan Gin, economist at the University of San Diego, said that the new job figures were “bad news.” He noted that during May, local employers added only 2,400 workers to their payrolls, compared with a monthly average of 10,200 workers for the first four months of 2006.
“The rate of job growth has slowed considerably,” he said. “What I see is that the fallout from the housing market is spreading from construction and real estate into other sectors.”
“Statewide, the employment picture was a bit brighter. The state added 10,800 jobs in May, with year-to-year increase of 228,600 jobs, a 1.5 percent rise.
“What that shows is that the impact of the decline in the housing market is hitting San Diego first,” Gin said. “If we would have had a 1.5 percent yearly increase, we would have added about 15,000 jobs instead of 4,200.””
San Diego through much consensus has been determined the bellwether of the housing boom and bust. It is no surprise that it is the first major metropolitan area feeling the economic effects of the RE correction. These numbers are not earth shattering….yet. It is the trend being established that is alarming. The negative TREND in S D housing began in 2005, that trend is still very much in place today. I see a similar pattern happening on the economic front. And as with housing I see this pattern spreading across the state. I doubt it will be a linear downturn, there will be little pops here and there but I see the beginning of a So Cal recession. IMHO