San Diego among 5 cities positioned to bounce back the fastest…

[noone]

The prediction is correct, if…

Home prices decline by 5.3% each month between now and Q2 2008. But how likely is that?

The article is too vague. What are these predictions based on?

[PD]

Myito, why are you here? You keep posting the same substanceless stuff in an attempt to support your decision to buy. Guess what, unless you come up with hard data, you are wasting your time. Opinion pieces and parroting urban myths about how it is different here, boomers will save the day, and masses of rich people will hold up the market will do nothing to further your cause.
Please read Rich’s bubble primer. I also suggest brushing up on your basic finance.

[PD]

Myito, why are you here? You keep posting the same substanceless stuff in an attempt to support your decision to buy. Guess what, unless you come up with hard data, you are wasting your time. Opinion pieces and parroting urban myths about how it is different here, boomers will save the day, and masses of rich people will hold up the market will do nothing to further your cause.
Please read Rich’s bubble primer. I also suggest brushing up on your basic finance.

[myito]

PD,

If I could have choice words for you I would, but I can’t so I’ll just say…it’s a free world and I’ll post where I want.

Sorry you only want to hear discourse supporting your position, but I’m interested in opinions other than yours. I should reverse the question and ask, why do you keep responding to my posts? Purely rhetorical — please don’t reply.

Cheers!

[myito]

PD,

If I could have choice words for you I would, but I can’t so I’ll just say…it’s a free world and I’ll post where I want.

Sorry you only want to hear discourse supporting your position, but I’m interested in opinions other than yours. I should reverse the question and ask, why do you keep responding to my posts? Purely rhetorical — please don’t reply.

Cheers!

[North County Jim]

These boomers tend to be well paid and they like to show it. The wealth they continue to build — via stock market, other investments and real estate — are very real and will be passed on to their children.

Here’s a link to an LA Times piece earlier today with the income and wealth scorecard separated out by age group.

I know baby boomers range in age from 42 to 61 but I think we can use the 40-49 and 50-59 figures.

The average household income for a baby boomer is about $66k annually. Will that go far in San Diego?

What about net worth? For the wealthier 50-59 set, the median is a whopping $106k. That’s just enough for 20% down on a fixer upper in Clairemont.

The younger boomers with their median net worth of $52k will have to settle for that condo conversion in Escondido.

Are there a few wealthy out-of-town baby boomers that would like to retire to San Diego? Sure, but how much true demand will they represent when their retirement dollars can go so much further elsewhere.

Did I mention state income taxes?

[North County Jim]

These boomers tend to be well paid and they like to show it. The wealth they continue to build — via stock market, other investments and real estate — are very real and will be passed on to their children.

Here’s a link to an LA Times piece earlier today with the income and wealth scorecard separated out by age group.

I know baby boomers range in age from 42 to 61 but I think we can use the 40-49 and 50-59 figures.

The average household income for a baby boomer is about $66k annually. Will that go far in San Diego?

What about net worth? For the wealthier 50-59 set, the median is a whopping $106k. That’s just enough for 20% down on a fixer upper in Clairemont.

The younger boomers with their median net worth of $52k will have to settle for that condo conversion in Escondido.

Are there a few wealthy out-of-town baby boomers that would like to retire to San Diego? Sure, but how much true demand will they represent when their retirement dollars can go so much further elsewhere.

Did I mention state income taxes?

[myito]

Thanks for the info and article NC. Interesting stuff, I guess I have been insulated from this reality as my any of the boomers I work with (and have worked with in the past) are well above these figures and are poised to buy propreties that are in the millions very easily. Seeing most of them with their stock options, high 6 figure incomes, etc. has truly skewed my view.

[myito]

Thanks for the info and article NC. Interesting stuff, I guess I have been insulated from this reality as my any of the boomers I work with (and have worked with in the past) are well above these figures and are poised to buy propreties that are in the millions very easily. Seeing most of them with their stock options, high 6 figure incomes, etc. has truly skewed my view.

[kewp]

Thats a little harsh, PD.

As I’ve said before, if you wanna buy and can afford it, who’s to judge. I don’t judge even if you can’t afford it, as long as I don’t have to bail you out when you foreclose!

Anyways, I wanted to comment on the boomer issue. I have a theory that the inevitable housing correction will spill over into a stock market correction and millions of boomers are going to watch in horror as the equity they counted on for retirement evaporates. I think this is going to snowball in the stock market as retirees panic and cash out their 401k’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘401k’ becomes a dirty word when the younger generations watch theirs go ‘poof’.

So I wouldn’t count on the boomers to bail much of anything out. Plus, based on experience with my parents, they are having a rad time spending money on themselves (they’ve earned it), so why give it to kids they’ve spent a fortune on already.

However, there is another generation to watch that I’m very curious about. The boomers parents. These are folks that lived through the depression and WW2, were savers, experienced the greatest economic boom in US history and and as a result many have sizable estates. My grandmother just passed and we are doing the legal work now, we expect a few hundred K to each of her surviving children. I already told my parents they will need to share the wealth if they want grandkids, as there is no way I’ll be able to settle down with what I make in southern California.

The flipside of the expiring pre-boomers is that their homes are gonna go on the inventory with everyone elses.

[kewp]

Thats a little harsh, PD.

As I’ve said before, if you wanna buy and can afford it, who’s to judge. I don’t judge even if you can’t afford it, as long as I don’t have to bail you out when you foreclose!

Anyways, I wanted to comment on the boomer issue. I have a theory that the inevitable housing correction will spill over into a stock market correction and millions of boomers are going to watch in horror as the equity they counted on for retirement evaporates. I think this is going to snowball in the stock market as retirees panic and cash out their 401k’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘401k’ becomes a dirty word when the younger generations watch theirs go ‘poof’.

So I wouldn’t count on the boomers to bail much of anything out. Plus, based on experience with my parents, they are having a rad time spending money on themselves (they’ve earned it), so why give it to kids they’ve spent a fortune on already.

However, there is another generation to watch that I’m very curious about. The boomers parents. These are folks that lived through the depression and WW2, were savers, experienced the greatest economic boom in US history and and as a result many have sizable estates. My grandmother just passed and we are doing the legal work now, we expect a few hundred K to each of her surviving children. I already told my parents they will need to share the wealth if they want grandkids, as there is no way I’ll be able to settle down with what I make in southern California.

The flipside of the expiring pre-boomers is that their homes are gonna go on the inventory with everyone elses.

[4plexowner]

myito – I have to remind myself from time to time that the people I associate with are NOT average Americans – looks like you have the same challenge

the inequality between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ is growing rapidly in our society – ie, wealth is being concentrated in fewer and fewer hands

this has happened in many societies throughout history – eventually the ‘have nots’ get fed up and take or destroy the wealth of the ‘haves’ (check out the history of the guillotine if you are unclear on this concept)

look at this distribution of wealth in the US (1998 stats from http://www.lcurve.org) (sorry for the dated numbers – concentration of wealth has increased even more in last 10 yrs)

Wealth class Average wealth of class
Top 1% $10,203,700
Next 4% $1,441,200
Next 5% $623,500
Next 10% $344,900
————————-
Next 20% $161,300
————————-
Next 20% $61,000
Next 20% $11,000
Last 20% -$8,900

one conclusion that could be drawn from these numbers is that the bottom 60% (and probably 80%) of our society will NEVER be able to retire without a handout from the government

myito, you and your associates represent less than 5% of the American population so be careful what you assume about the other 95%

~

check out the L-Curve chart at the top of the page on the link above – make sure that you zoom all the way in and all the way out

[4plexowner]

myito – I have to remind myself from time to time that the people I associate with are NOT average Americans – looks like you have the same challenge

the inequality between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ is growing rapidly in our society – ie, wealth is being concentrated in fewer and fewer hands

this has happened in many societies throughout history – eventually the ‘have nots’ get fed up and take or destroy the wealth of the ‘haves’ (check out the history of the guillotine if you are unclear on this concept)

look at this distribution of wealth in the US (1998 stats from http://www.lcurve.org) (sorry for the dated numbers – concentration of wealth has increased even more in last 10 yrs)

Wealth class Average wealth of class
Top 1% $10,203,700
Next 4% $1,441,200
Next 5% $623,500
Next 10% $344,900
————————-
Next 20% $161,300
————————-
Next 20% $61,000
Next 20% $11,000
Last 20% -$8,900

one conclusion that could be drawn from these numbers is that the bottom 60% (and probably 80%) of our society will NEVER be able to retire without a handout from the government

myito, you and your associates represent less than 5% of the American population so be careful what you assume about the other 95%

~

check out the L-Curve chart at the top of the page on the link above – make sure that you zoom all the way in and all the way out

[PD]

Here is an interesting article about how reverse mortgages have suddenly become the latest hot thing.
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2007/06/new-mortgage-lending-growth-sector.html

Take a look at the chart at the bottom. Wow, it looks like it isn’t the boomers with all the money. The boomers have spent their money while their parents, who lived through the depression and learned some hard lessons, saved.

[PD]

Here is an interesting article about how reverse mortgages have suddenly become the latest hot thing.
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2007/06/new-mortgage-lending-growth-sector.html

Take a look at the chart at the bottom. Wow, it looks like it isn’t the boomers with all the money. The boomers have spent their money while their parents, who lived through the depression and learned some hard lessons, saved.

[Author]

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