I dont think it is safe to eliminate these from the “testing the market” category. There are alot of long time rental properties on the market in bad shape that aren’t selling and won’t sell. The owners are trying to get a top dollar price if they can. If they cant they will dump it back into the beat up rental market. The fact that there are so many vacants leads me to believe that there are a great many of these.
BTW, about 4200 of the vacants I came up with were built before 2000. This further leads me to beleive there are alot of long time investors trying to get out on top. It s just a guess but it wouldnt surprise me to here that 50% of vacants are unmotivated sellers.
I drive by and look at listings all the time, and the 30% seems way high to me. On the other hand, if you believe in the estimates of investor activity in our market, the 30% would dovetail in with those figures.
Bugs,
Nearly 25% of the listings in the MLS have an occupant listed as vacant. It has to be 30% or higher as many vacant listings dont arent listed as vacant.
The market has turned. Let’s all accept it. I heard June is down 40% from last year.
Don’t look for a silver lining in reduced inventory. If some take their home off the market, there will be new ones coming on, and the old ones piling up at a greater pace. You’ll have June’s listings still on there, as DOM picks up, increasing inventory.
Sales will keep dropping, if the current increasing rate of increase continues, and the inventory will rise even if we didn’t have more listings.
But those ARM sellers are just starting to get their new mortgages.
I guess inventory of 50,000 by end of 2007. Phoenix, we are right behind you.
