Rent growth in San Diego?

[gzz]

This shows average rent rising from apx $1300 in early 2011 to about $2000 now. It seems legit, and the rent by neighborhood also seems right.
https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-san-diego-rent-trends/

This article says San Diego rents will grow faster than OC and LA, and SD renters spend a lower share of their income on rent than the other major CA markets. It also says rents will rise by about $160 from 2016 to 2018, about 8% over two years.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/apr/12/rents-increase-usc-2016/

This projects a 10.9% increase in three years, 2015-2018.
http://fox5sandiego.com/2016/04/12/san-diego-rents-expected-to-keep-rising-through-2018/

Kind of disappointing compared to SF!

[gzz]

The USC Lusk Center has a chart showing San Diego city rents rising from about $900 to 2003 to $1457 in 2015. That is a 62% increase over 12 years. Pretty good when you consider that period also included the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression!

Excerpts from the Lusk center’s San Diego rent overview:

San Diego County has had one of the better performing economies in Southern California in recent years. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.2% last year, the lowest since 2007, as County wage and salary jobs grew by a solid 3.0%. …
Notably, the Manufacturing sector added jobs at more than double the statewide pace over the past year, a sign of that sector’s continued strength in the region. With sound economic fundamentals, San Diego County’s economy will expand over the next two years and the housing market will heat up with further increases in prices, sales, and rents. … the vacancy rate edged up from 4.6% in 2014 to 4.9%

The City of San Diego experienced the fastest growth in rental rates at 5.8% in 2015, slightly ahead of North San Diego County (5.1%) and well ahead of Chula Vista/National City (1.6%).

The lowest average vacancy rate was in the City of San Diego at 4.9%, followed by Chula Vista-National City at 5.8%, and North San Diego County at 6.5%.

[gzz]

The reason the “average rent” data differs so much is that Rent Jungle looks at list prices, while USC-Lusk uses Census data, which of course includes things like granny flats that are not advertised and long-term renters with rents well below the market.

[livinincali]

Here’s the rent information I have for San Diego city. Seems like it was really flat for a few years after the bubble and the really started to take off in 2012. It mirrors what happened in the housing market. Vacancy has come back down after rising last year it’s around 3% compared to last years 4%. It wouldn’t surprise me to continue to see 4-5% a year going forward at least until the next recession hits.

Year Average Rent YoY Change
2016 $1,649 4.1%
2015 $1,584 9.4%
2014 $1,448 5.8%
2013 $1,369 5.3%
2012 $1,300 4.4%
2011 $1,245 1.8%
2010 $1,223 1.2%
2009 $1,209 -1.8%
2008 $1,231 2.2%
2007 $1,204 3.5%
2006 $1,163

[sdsurfer]

I think the articles are staying on the conservative side to avoid the risk of being wrong like most people. SD rents will outperform those estimates in most regions in my opinion…especially coastal over the next 2-3 years.

I think you might have chimed in a bit in a recent topic where Rich actually helped me find a chart that went back to 84 and the only times rents did not go up were a small window from around 91-93 as well as about a month of so in 2010 when the increase was zero (not negative though) and the chart even shows past recessions along the way for reference.

[utcsox]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poverty-idUSKCN11J1PP

Another element that will impact future rent growth in San Diego is the pace of income growth. With record increase in U.S. household income in 2015, rent shall continue to climb in the near future.

[mixxalot]

Correct, wages at least in STEM have been flat for decades. I remember salaries in tech in 2006 are same as now.

[flu]

[quote=mixxalot]Correct, wages at least in STEM have been flat for decades. I remember salaries in tech in 2006 are same as now.[/quote]

Uh, no.

[Author]

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