Recession – here we come!

[patientrenter]

cooprider, I think you asked me months ago what I was investing in. I forgot to reply then, and this just reminded me. I think at the time I laid out my basic portfolio, and you were just asking about my hedges. Anyway, in brief here it all is again:

Basic portfolio =
1. 401k and other tax-sheltered investments = mostly fixed income stable value investments. Done for diversification and risk-aversion and tax minimization reasons. This is my “reserve fund”.

2. Stocks = 10% in V’guard domestic index fund + 7.5% in V’guard int’l index fund + rest in a personally picked high-dividend 50-stock portfolio diversified across continents, industries, and company sizes, with a bias towards small stocks. I live on the dividends from this.

3. “Hedge fund” of about 10% of my assets, that is invested highly specualtively, or to hedge dangers in my basic income portfolio. Right now I have JPY/GBP and JPY/EUR cross-currency futures, in favor of the Yen, split equally, for a nominal amount equal to my total assets, or 10 times the amount in the “hedge fund”.

4. Housing fund. This is now between 7% and 9% of my assets and still building, but should be enough to pay cash for a 2+2 condo in a non-gang area when the property market is nearer the bottom.

I am kicking myself a little for not thinking harder about Chris Scoreboar’s late 2007 advice to short the US equity market for the first quarter of 2008. Probably will turn out to be a very good call. I even kinda agreed with it, but hadn’t spent enough time thinking it through to act. Maybe I’ll add S&P500 futures (long/short) to my quiver for next hunting season.

Patient renter in OC

[cr]

PR in OC thanks for the info.

For what little I hav eon the table now I just keep telling myself I’m in it for the long rung, but I can’t help but think it’s going to be up one day like yesterday (174pts), and down the next like today (down 270pts).

You can bet with a day linke this Wall Street will start talking of more than a half point cut.

It’s going to be a long year.

[cr]

PR in OC thanks for the info.

For what little I hav eon the table now I just keep telling myself I’m in it for the long rung, but I can’t help but think it’s going to be up one day like yesterday (174pts), and down the next like today (down 270pts).

You can bet with a day linke this Wall Street will start talking of more than a half point cut.

It’s going to be a long year.

[cr]

PR in OC thanks for the info.

For what little I hav eon the table now I just keep telling myself I’m in it for the long rung, but I can’t help but think it’s going to be up one day like yesterday (174pts), and down the next like today (down 270pts).

You can bet with a day linke this Wall Street will start talking of more than a half point cut.

It’s going to be a long year.

[cr]

PR in OC thanks for the info.

For what little I hav eon the table now I just keep telling myself I’m in it for the long rung, but I can’t help but think it’s going to be up one day like yesterday (174pts), and down the next like today (down 270pts).

You can bet with a day linke this Wall Street will start talking of more than a half point cut.

It’s going to be a long year.

[cr]

PR in OC thanks for the info.

For what little I hav eon the table now I just keep telling myself I’m in it for the long rung, but I can’t help but think it’s going to be up one day like yesterday (174pts), and down the next like today (down 270pts).

You can bet with a day linke this Wall Street will start talking of more than a half point cut.

It’s going to be a long year.

[Arraya]

“For those who think that oil will go to $200 per barrel, consider: coal to oil conversion”

You have to think in terms of EROEI(energy returned on energy invested). The coal to oil conversion is about 1.3/1. Which means you get about 1.3 barrels for 1 invested. Compare that to crude which is like 34/1 these days(used to be 100/1). Also, you need to factor in the time needed to get a plant up an running. Basically the influence on the price of crude will be negligible. Not that it won’t be done but it’s just a stupid option considering the enviromental damage it does and little influence on energy costs same goes for ethanol.

The variables that affect the price are the (de)valuation of the dollar,production levels(decline rates) and demand. All alternatives just don’t cut it in terms of EROEI.

Oil will be pushing mid to high $100s unless we have a full blown depression by the end of the year.

The larger questions you have to ask yourself is once we slip into rescession will we ever have enough energy to pull us out and how it will the lack of energy affect the infinate growth pardigm of our current economic model.

[Arraya]

“For those who think that oil will go to $200 per barrel, consider: coal to oil conversion”

You have to think in terms of EROEI(energy returned on energy invested). The coal to oil conversion is about 1.3/1. Which means you get about 1.3 barrels for 1 invested. Compare that to crude which is like 34/1 these days(used to be 100/1). Also, you need to factor in the time needed to get a plant up an running. Basically the influence on the price of crude will be negligible. Not that it won’t be done but it’s just a stupid option considering the enviromental damage it does and little influence on energy costs same goes for ethanol.

The variables that affect the price are the (de)valuation of the dollar,production levels(decline rates) and demand. All alternatives just don’t cut it in terms of EROEI.

Oil will be pushing mid to high $100s unless we have a full blown depression by the end of the year.

The larger questions you have to ask yourself is once we slip into rescession will we ever have enough energy to pull us out and how it will the lack of energy affect the infinate growth pardigm of our current economic model.

[Arraya]

“For those who think that oil will go to $200 per barrel, consider: coal to oil conversion”

You have to think in terms of EROEI(energy returned on energy invested). The coal to oil conversion is about 1.3/1. Which means you get about 1.3 barrels for 1 invested. Compare that to crude which is like 34/1 these days(used to be 100/1). Also, you need to factor in the time needed to get a plant up an running. Basically the influence on the price of crude will be negligible. Not that it won’t be done but it’s just a stupid option considering the enviromental damage it does and little influence on energy costs same goes for ethanol.

The variables that affect the price are the (de)valuation of the dollar,production levels(decline rates) and demand. All alternatives just don’t cut it in terms of EROEI.

Oil will be pushing mid to high $100s unless we have a full blown depression by the end of the year.

The larger questions you have to ask yourself is once we slip into rescession will we ever have enough energy to pull us out and how it will the lack of energy affect the infinate growth pardigm of our current economic model.

[Arraya]

“For those who think that oil will go to $200 per barrel, consider: coal to oil conversion”

You have to think in terms of EROEI(energy returned on energy invested). The coal to oil conversion is about 1.3/1. Which means you get about 1.3 barrels for 1 invested. Compare that to crude which is like 34/1 these days(used to be 100/1). Also, you need to factor in the time needed to get a plant up an running. Basically the influence on the price of crude will be negligible. Not that it won’t be done but it’s just a stupid option considering the enviromental damage it does and little influence on energy costs same goes for ethanol.

The variables that affect the price are the (de)valuation of the dollar,production levels(decline rates) and demand. All alternatives just don’t cut it in terms of EROEI.

Oil will be pushing mid to high $100s unless we have a full blown depression by the end of the year.

The larger questions you have to ask yourself is once we slip into rescession will we ever have enough energy to pull us out and how it will the lack of energy affect the infinate growth pardigm of our current economic model.

[Arraya]

“For those who think that oil will go to $200 per barrel, consider: coal to oil conversion”

You have to think in terms of EROEI(energy returned on energy invested). The coal to oil conversion is about 1.3/1. Which means you get about 1.3 barrels for 1 invested. Compare that to crude which is like 34/1 these days(used to be 100/1). Also, you need to factor in the time needed to get a plant up an running. Basically the influence on the price of crude will be negligible. Not that it won’t be done but it’s just a stupid option considering the enviromental damage it does and little influence on energy costs same goes for ethanol.

The variables that affect the price are the (de)valuation of the dollar,production levels(decline rates) and demand. All alternatives just don’t cut it in terms of EROEI.

Oil will be pushing mid to high $100s unless we have a full blown depression by the end of the year.

The larger questions you have to ask yourself is once we slip into rescession will we ever have enough energy to pull us out and how it will the lack of energy affect the infinate growth pardigm of our current economic model.

[bob007]

if you base on supply/demand oil is $70 per barrel. the problem is that world is awash in money. The hot money is chasing oil driving the price up by $20-30.

[bob007]

if you base on supply/demand oil is $70 per barrel. the problem is that world is awash in money. The hot money is chasing oil driving the price up by $20-30.

[bob007]

if you base on supply/demand oil is $70 per barrel. the problem is that world is awash in money. The hot money is chasing oil driving the price up by $20-30.

[bob007]

if you base on supply/demand oil is $70 per barrel. the problem is that world is awash in money. The hot money is chasing oil driving the price up by $20-30.

[Author]

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