Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Recession 2020
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FlyerInHi.
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August 21, 2019 at 9:33 AM #813288August 23, 2019 at 9:39 AM #813305
FlyerInHi
GuestLooks like I’ll be able to crow about an accurate prediction — 2020 recession.
It’s now a lot more likely to happen because with trade tensions and self-inflicted business uncertainty.Let’s wait for Europe to slap taxes on US internet companies. It’s all about tech dominance. The US is worried about Chinese innovation (5G, AI, quantum computing, fintech, etc) and manufacturing prowess (belt and road, HSR, China 2025). And Europe sees that the China model worked really for China while Europe rolled over to US internet and military dominance. Proud Europe is having to kiss ass to Trump. Let’s see what Trump will do at the G7.
September 12, 2019 at 7:23 AM #813506
CoronitaParticipantDow back over 27k…. As I was saying….what doomsday scenario????
Despite sidelining some money in cash and bonds, my net worth keeps hitting all time highs.September 12, 2019 at 7:34 AM #813507The-Shoveler
Participant[quote=flu]sidelining some money in cash and bonds [/quote]
But wait there is no money sitting on the sidelines LOL.
September 12, 2019 at 8:46 AM #813508GuestFlu, what does your networth have to do with the total production of goods and services?
The inverted yield curve shows that people don’t see much return from investing in means of production in the short and medium run so they are fleeing to the safety of long bonds.
You keep on committing the fallacy of composition. Whenever the discussion is about a general subject you don’t agree with or don’t like, you switch to “taladilada, my situation is so good, because I’m so smart”. That may be true, but your personal situation is not the economy.
September 13, 2019 at 9:18 AM #813528CoronitaParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]sidelining some money in cash and bonds [/quote]
But wait there is no money sitting on the sidelines LOL.[/quote]
Yeah. I’ve been so busy at work. Busy in a good sense… Lots of customers , lots of demand for the product, and lots of things that need to be fixed. Business is good. Need to hire more people though ..again…Rolling out a new product in a few weeks. It better be successful…. They need to make up for the sign on bonus that I just cashed in. Just kidding … sort of… But hey. Some are convinced the sky is falling. Haters are always gonna hate….
September 13, 2019 at 10:13 AM #813538GuestNo the sky is not falling. Even with a recession, the economy would still be at a higher level than a couple years ago. A recession is just a contractionary period that’s a buying opportunity.
I have a friend retiring and selling his 4000sf house to downsize. They own an apartment aboard and will live there a couple years while using a friend’s address here as their base. Then buy again after the recession. If you’re able to time it right, why not? It’s very useful to know when the recession will hit, especially when you’re going to do what you plan anyway — just adjust the time a little and not blindly jump in.
September 13, 2019 at 12:19 PM #813543CoronitaParticipantface it Brian. You and Spdrun are just plain wrong 90% of the time.
September 13, 2019 at 2:50 PM #813545GuestRecession 2020, maybe 2021 is looking to be pretty accurate. We will see.
Are you saying there won’t be recession?Flu, why don’t you make a prediction? Because you can’t, so you just keep saying “go with the flow.” Sure, if you have a good job and secure income, you can weather recession and in the long run you will be fine.
But the point is to do better than your peers especially when it comes to real estate. I don’t want to drip investing and own a forever house as a principal residence. I want to win and keep on winning until I’m tired of winning!
October 13, 2019 at 9:05 AM #813742GuestI give myself until 2021 to declare victory on an accurate prediction.
Housing market flashing recession signal
Gap between home prices and income point to a recession by the 2020 electionMore economists are saying so.
October 17, 2019 at 6:10 AM #813782CoronitaParticipanthttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipmaker-tsmc-raises-capex-5-082647723.html
Given that TSM is one of largest and most advanced contract fabs out there, there does not appear to be a slowdown considering they are expanding capex spending by $5billion. All this demand fueled by demand for consumer electronics..
Side note… TSM’s strong quarter was almost obvious. There were several articles and speculation weeks before that many companies were having their contract lead time for 7nm delayed from 1month to 6month, and this fueled concerns about supply shortages at some companies like AMD. Since TSMs 7nm is shared between large customers like Qualcomm, Apple, AMD, etc…. Those delays and shortages indicated TSM was running at full capacity.. IE business is good, increasing consumer electronics demand…..I did mention this a few weeks ago… But hey, don’t let extreme pessimism of current political climate get in the way of that warped perception of doom and gloom as a means of mental therapy.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Apple Incsupplier TSMC <2330.TW> raised its 2019 capital spending plan by up to $5 billion on Thursday and forecast a nearly 10% rise in fourth-quarter revenue on strong demand for faster mobile chips and new high-end smartphones. The bullish forecast by the world’s top contract chipmaker should ease investor fears of a global tech slowdown, as the world economic growth outlook has dimmed largely due to a 15-month trade war between the United States and China
October 17, 2019 at 6:21 AM #813783ParticipantJust looking at the demographics, it could keep going another 3-5 years IMO.
October 17, 2019 at 9:12 AM #813784GuestI’m not predicting a global recession but a US recession 2020.
Global recessions seldom occur.October 17, 2019 at 9:32 AM #813785CoronitaParticipantBrian.. If you keep moving out your recession prediction by 1-2 years each year you were WRONG with your prediction…eventually you will be correct… Not due to any mental acumen with your prediction….just pure coincidence….similar to a broken clock being able to show the correct time twice a day eventually.
But by all means, given your unhappiness with the current political climate keep fishing and resurrecting old threads to try to get positive affirmation and therapy that apparently is very important to you. Normally, I’d say spend more time with friends and family, but do what you need to do to convince yourself and get the positive affirmation you need. Meanwhile, the world continues to turn and life goes on…
October 17, 2019 at 1:11 PM #813786GuestDid you read the title of this thread, duh. If there’s a recession by end 2020, I win.
However, I am willing to adjust my forecast data change.Why don’t you make a prediction instead? Whatever happened to your libertarian friends who predicted we would have hyperinflation and dollar debasement? They must be in hiding
By the way I don’t give a shit what happens to America anymore. I just observe for fun. I am now a world citizen foremost and all I care about is benefit to humanity as a whole.
I observe the economy because I want to make money, and it is very interesting to observe and analyze the world around me. I don’t think we will have a deep recession that’s why I just bought three additional properties at a good deal
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